Checkmate: how the unrest in Iran will affect Russia and its neighbors
There have been mass protests in Iran for two weeks, and the country's authorities have announced the deaths of 38 law enforcement officers. The Islamic Republic plays an important role for stability in Transcaucasia and Central Asia, and the growing problems in Tehran may change the balance of power there. Izvestia investigated the situation.
What happened
The unrest in Iran began in late December. Then the national currency collapsed in the country once again: they began to give 1.4 million rials for one dollar. In total, the rial has fallen in price by 83% over the past year, with official inflation at 38%. Against this background, the head of the country's Central Bank, Mohammad Farzin, resigned.
The protests started in the city bazaar of Tehran. Initially, small entrepreneurs and students participated in them. Gradually, the performances spread to most major cities. In the early days, the rallies were peaceful, but after the New Year, blood began to flow. Economic slogans quickly gave way to demands for the overthrow of the political regime, and the son of Shah Reza Pahlavi, who was overthrown in 1979, became the informal leader.
According to the latest data published by the Iranian state television and radio company IRIB, 38 law enforcement officers were killed during the clashes, opposition sources say 500 protesters were killed. Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani said rioters burned down 25 mosques, damaged 26 banks, three medical centers, 10 government offices, dozens of fire trucks and ambulances.
The Iranian authorities accuse the United States and Israel of organizing the unrest. "Behind the protesters are provocateurs, agents of the enemy, who shout anti—Islamic and anti-government slogans. We are talking to the protesters, but the rioters need to be subdued," the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khamenei, emphasized.
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly said that Washington can support the protests. "We are closely monitoring the situation. If they start killing people, as they have done in the past, we will intervene. We will hit them very hard where it hurts," he noted. The Wall Street Journal and CNN write that on January 13, Trump will hold a closed-door meeting with officials to discuss options for dealing with Iran.
What will be the consequences
Iran plays an important role for stability in the post-Soviet space. What is happening in Transcaucasia is of particular concern. The fact is that more than 10 million ethnic Azerbaijanis and about 200 thousand ethnic Armenians live in the Islamic Republic. If the chaos in the country grows, then a mass exodus of people and a migration crisis are not excluded.
Azerbaijani officials have not yet commented on this issue. Political analyst Farhad Mammadov, who is close to official Baku, emphasizes that the latest news is emotionally perceived in the country. "In the event of a civil war, the topic of Azerbaijanis in Iran will acquire completely different characteristics, and Baku, in order to ensure security, can provide support to its compatriots in any context," he notes.
Yerevan complains that communication with the Armenian community in Iran is now disrupted. Commissioner for Diaspora Affairs Zare Sinanyan stressed that the same situation was in June last year during the 12-day war between the Islamic Republic and Israel. "Back then, we received information through our compatriots crossing the border. Perhaps we should start doing the same thing today, because this information gap is very worrying for us," he said.
If we talk not about the humanitarian, but the military-political aspect, then in this sense, the destabilization in Iran can seriously change the balance of power. The fact is that in recent years, Tehran has been an important supporter of Armenia's territorial integrity and an opponent of the creation of the Zangezur Corridor, that is, a direct land road between Turkey and Azerbaijan.
If Iran weakens, Yerevan's position will weaken, and the tandem of Baku and Ankara, on the contrary, will strengthen. Interestingly, during the current protests, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan met with Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi. "These relations are of strategic importance to us. It is no coincidence that President Peseshkian and Prime Minister Pashinyan have agreed to raise our relations this year to the level of a strategic partnership," Mirzoyan said.
Iran also plays an important role in Central Asia. On the one hand, Tehran here objectively opposes Turkey and its pan-Turkist ambitions. On the other hand, the Islamic Republic has many infrastructure projects. The main one is the North–South transport corridor, which has been actively developing recently. Oleg Belozerov, Head of Russian Railways, noted that by the end of 2025, container turnover along the eastern branch of the corridor had more than doubled.
Finally, in the event of destabilization in Iran, security threats to its neighbors may increase. One should hardly expect the export of unrest, because the cultural environment and political systems of the Islamic republic and the Turkic-speaking countries of Central Asia are very different. But if we are talking about a large-scale and long-term internal conflict in Iran, then extremist groups bent on expansion may settle in the country.
What the experts say
Political scientist Artur Ataev believes that much depends on the results of the Iranian unrest for the future of Transcaucasia.
— If Iran plunges into the abyss of internal conflict, the alliance of Azerbaijan and Turkey will further strengthen in Transcaucasia. Against this background, Armenia may turn even more towards Ankara and Baku, and not only the positions of Tehran, but also of Russia, will weaken. Nikol Pashinyan is already pursuing an open—door policy, and the transit of food and petroleum products from recent enemies is already being established, and this trend may further strengthen," he argues.
Kazakh political analyst Rustam Burnashev emphasizes that it is too early to talk about the consequences of the Iranian unrest. According to him, street demonstrations occur with some frequency in the Islamic Republic, the last such wave was in 2022, and official Tehran eventually coped with it.
— I don't think we can talk about exporting such unrest. After all, the political systems of the countries in our region are very different from those in Iran, and the connections are quite limited. It is clear that during the unrest in Iran, the port or railway infrastructure may be blocked or damaged, then there will be some economic damage, although not very significant. It's too early to talk about any larger-scale consequences, because we don't fully understand what is happening in Iran right now, what everything will come to in the end," he explains.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
