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Internal protest: Iran's opponents are looking for a reason to interfere in its affairs
Protest sentiments have noticeably intensified in Iran. Experts are confident that now, more than ever, the risk is high that Israel and the United States will try to take advantage of ethnic differences. Their goal is to drive the Iranian authorities into a situation where they will be forced to harshly suppress protests and thereby create conditions for outside interference. On January 6 and 7, tensions shifted from the central provinces to the outskirts of the country, to areas densely populated by ethnic minorities. The media reported that the demonstrators allegedly managed to take control of several settlements, but the authorities denied this. The situation in Iran is described in the Izvestia article.
The second week of protests in Iran
The protests in Iran have not subsided for about 10 days. The situation remains most acute in Ilam province, where the economic basis of the protests has been reinforced by ethnic divisions. Areas populated mainly by Kurds and Loris were among the first to feel the impact of the crisis, and therefore actively joined the protests. According to Western analysts, Silt accounts for up to 60% of fixed shares today. Cases of the use of small arms by protesters were most often recorded here (at least 11 episodes out of 25 recorded).
The shift in the focus of the protests on the border did not go unnoticed by Tehran's opponents. So, on the night of January 6-7, reports appeared on Fox News resources that protesters allegedly took control of the Kurdish city of Abdanan (population — about 25 thousand people) and the 22 thousandth rural district of Malekshahi on the border with Iraq, pulling local security forces over to their side. The source of the information was called the "National Council of Resistance of Iran", an emigrant association that allegedly has close ties with the protesters. Iranian officials subsequently denied these claims, including providing reports from the field.
Nevertheless, the Western media continued to promote the false image, "transferring" neighboring settlements under the control of the protesters and "renaming" local streets in honor of Donald Trump.
Grigory Lukyanov, an employee of the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained to Izvestia that it is important for the forces opposing Tehran to consolidate the idea of the regime's non-viability in the mass consciousness.
"It is the creation of this conviction that should provoke the disintegration of the system from within through not only and not so much the transfer of individual representatives of the IRGC or the police army to the side of the protesters, but the disintegration of the country's political elite itself," the expert noted.
The extent to which the picture of events broadcast to the masses is combined with reality is already a secondary issue.
Dialogue with the "street"
The protests in Iran began at the end of December 2025 due to the devaluation of the local currency and the impact of this process on prices. By the middle of the second week, the unrest inside Iran had acquired a qualitatively different character. In addition to a decrease in the number of protest actions in large cities, there has been a narrowing of their geography. They moved to small and medium-sized cities, as well as to rural areas, where the protest movement turned out to be numerous, but not consolidated.
As a result, mass rallies gradually gave way to short-term attacks by rioters. Attempts by the protesters to re-"ignite" points of tension in the capital region (for example, to resume strikes at the Grand Bazaar in Tehran) were promptly and harshly suppressed by the authorities: security forces used tear gas and stun grenades, communications and the Internet were restricted in problem areas.
At the same time, a characteristic feature of the current protests is that the authorities have been trying to establish a dialogue with the Iranian "street" since the first days of the crisis and demonstrate their willingness to find compromises. In addition to the castling in the Central Bank conducted by the government of Masoud Peseshkian, the Supreme leader (Rahbar) personally joined the anti-crisis settlement Iran's Ali Khamenei. He not only acknowledged the economic bloc's miscalculations, but also promised to find a way out of the current situation "as soon as possible." At the same time, addressing the population, Khamenei called on Iranians to be obedient and calm.
In addition, the authorities have decided to introduce new financial support measures for the population. Among other things, it was announced that each resident will receive a benefit of 10 million rials (equivalent to about $8). This measure will require the allocation of at least $720 million per month from the treasury, which (in annual terms) is equivalent to a quarter of the country's budget revenues for 2024. Against this background, skeptics began to talk that the "life-saving" measure, developed with the participation of the new head of the Iranian Central Bank, Abdolnaser Hemmati, is effective only as a tactical tool. In the long run, it will provoke an increase in the burden on the budget and further slow down the economy. And if, by the time the positive effect of benefits and public assurances is exhausted, the authorities do not work out a more comprehensive mechanism for supporting the population, this may hit the stability of the political system even more.
However, despite the apparent flexibility of the Iranian leadership in front of the "street", the authorities identify their "red lines" when responding to threats. The most direct position of the Iranian security forces was expressed by army Commander Amir Hatami.
— Protests are a normal and natural phenomenon in any country, but what is abnormal and unconventional is the rapid transformation of protests into riots in a very short period of time. This is not typical of the cultured Iranian nation and is undoubtedly planned by the enemies," the general said.
The head of Iran's judiciary, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, put the emphasis somewhat differently. He noted that the authorities do not intend to show leniency towards the participants in the unrest.
— The enemy does not even hide the fact that they clearly support the rebels. Based on this, we do not accept any excuses and apologies from the rioters, their defenders and leaders," he said.
The possibility of external interference
As the situation in Iran changes, the US rhetoric is also getting tougher. American officials are demanding that Tehran stop its "repressive influence" on the population, while emphasizing that in less than a week civilian casualties in the republic have increased almost sixfold (to 35 people), and the number of "illegally detained" demonstrators has increased to 1.2 thousand (that is, almost 25 times). If Tehran ignores the warnings of the White House, the Republicans promise to "come to the aid" of the protesters.
Political analyst Dastan Tokoldoshev notes that the United States is not so much seeking to intervene by force as trying to provoke official Tehran into contradictory and condemned measures in order to start a completely "morally justified" military confrontation with it.
— Numerous provocative and harsh statements may be followed by other actions, thanks to which it will be possible to drive Tehran into a dead end and deprive it of the opportunity to make decisions without harming itself, putting it in a Zugzwang situation. The rest will depend on the foresight and pragmatism of the Iranian leadership," the expert concludes.
It is also interesting that shortly before the protests intensified, on January 5, an underground congress of delegates from Kurdish parties was held in Eastern Kurdistan, most of which are officially banned or recognized as terrorist in Iran. It was decided to support the "popular protests", as well as join forces against Tehran.
The consolidation of the Kurdish underground in Tehran was met with some concern, seeing it as a potential tool of destabilization in the hands of the United States and Israel. Back in June 2025, representatives of the Kurdistan Freedom Party (one of the initiators of the underground congress) tried to establish contacts with the Israeli Army (IDF) in order to ensure the joint transfer of Kurdish "combat squads" to Iran and increase instability on the Iran-Iraq border. It is possible that the Kurdish opposition will try to implement this plan again, especially since the ongoing instability in the Iran-Iraq border area leaves such an opportunity.
On the other hand, Tehran's opponents are unlikely to be able to use both ethnic and emigrant factors to weaken power in Iran. This is partly because the monarchists have minimal support among the Kurds. The position of Kurdistan Freedom in relation to the followers of the Shah, who seek to become the face of the protests, is even more categorical: they consider the Pahlavi dynasty hostile and are not ready to take part in the hypothetical restoration of the monarchy in Iran.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
