Shifting grip: New US strikes on Iran could lead to war in the region
The White House is exploring options for possible attacks on Iran. Experts admit that the United States is capable of attacking both military and nuclear facilities, as well as the residence of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. If this happens, Tehran's potential response will spread to other countries in the Middle East, including Israel, Qatar, and the UAE. In the meantime, Washington hopes for regime change in Iran without military intervention, while the authorities of the Islamic republic are trying to restore order in the country with sticks and carrots. About how the situation around the Iranian protests is developing, see the Izvestia article.
Should we expect a US attack on Iran
The situation around potential US strikes on Iran is heating up. The powerful wave of protests that has engulfed the Islamic Republic since the end of December 2025 has attracted Washington's attention. Donald Trump has threatened to intervene if the Iranian authorities decide to quell the unrest by force. The day before, The New York Times newspaper, citing sources, reported that the US president had reviewed several options for an attack on Tehran, including airstrikes on civilian targets.
Earlier, The Wall Street Journal reported that the White House had previously discussed an attack on Iran "if necessary," but had not agreed on a final plan of action for the United States against the Islamic Republic. However, Trump had previously openly threatened Tehran with strikes if violence was used against protesters.
"I said that if they do something bad to these people, we will hit them very hard,— he said.
Today, the probability of a US attack on Iran is "50-50," said Farhad Ibragimov, a political scientist and lecturer at the Economics faculty of the P. Lumumba RUDN University, referring to the divided opinions in Trump's entourage on this issue.
— On the one hand, part of the Trump administration believes that this should not be done. Others believe that the time has come and Iran needs to be "dealt with." There is no clarity on this yet, so at this stage it is impossible to say with certainty that Trump will strike Iran," he told Izvestia.
If Washington does decide on aggression, Israel and the US military and naval bases will become "legitimate targets" of Tehran, Chairman of the Iranian Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said earlier. In this case, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are likely to get into hot water, which is why the war could cover the entire Middle East, Ibrahimov notes.
As for potential targets for American strikes, according to the expert, they may primarily be Iran's military bases, followed by nuclear facilities, the residence of Iran's spiritual ruler Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the presidential administration, parliament, the building of the Council of Experts of 88 Mujtahids (theologians), as well as national television and radio.
Nevertheless, for now, Trump's statements about strikes on Iran represent psychological pressure, which can be considered as part of an information campaign against Tehran, American scholar Malek Dudakov emphasized in a conversation with Izvestia.
— Theoretically, the United States can strike Iran, but before that, certain preparations will be carried out. We remember what a big media campaign there was before the previous US strikes on Iran in the summer of 2025. At the moment, I don't think that's going to happen," the expert believes.
So far, Washington hopes that the color revolution will work by itself, and they will not need to intervene militarily. Otherwise, American bases may suffer serious damage, as happened in June, when Tehran attacked American military installations in Qatar in response to the US attack.
How will the situation with the protests develop
The unrest in Iran began at the end of December 2025 due to a sharp drop in the local currency, the Iranian rial, and rising prices. In a number of cities, demonstrations escalated into clashes with the police, and economic demands were replaced by political calls for the overthrow of the current regime. The media reported dozens or even hundreds of dead — according to various estimates, from 78 to 217 people, as well as thousands of detainees.
Nevertheless, it is difficult to get a full picture of what is happening: the Internet has not been working in Iran for several days. The authorities decided to turn it off after a series of armed provocations by demonstrators.
On the eve of Reza Pahlavi, the son of the Iranian Shah, who was overthrown in 1979, posted a video message to the residents of Iran on the social network. He called for a general strike and the seizure of Iranian cities. It is interesting to note that prior to this, information appeared on the Network about the seizure of a number of settlements by protesters, but later the Iranian news agencies denied it.
Reza Pahlavi
— What does it mean to occupy cities? To do this, the demonstrators must oust the local government and declare themselves the rulers of the region. So that law enforcement officers and army units lay down their weapons and come over to their side. Of course, nothing like this is happening," Farhad Ibragimov is sure.
According to the expert's forecast, Tehran will stabilize the situation in the next 8-10 days if there is no military strike from the United States. The authorities even turned to loyal citizens to fight the riots. The State Television and Radio Company of Iran called on people to come to Engelab Square in Tehran to protest against the riots.
In an attempt to solve the problem, the authorities entered into a dialogue "with the street" and made certain concessions. In particular, the head of the Central Bank, Mohammad Farzin, resigned, under which the exchange rate of the national currency seriously fell. President Masoud Pezeshkian is also trying to maintain a dialogue with the citizens.
— We are ready to listen to the voice of the people and are determined to continue economic reforms. We call on Iranians to take to the streets to clearly express their demands and not allow the instigators of unrest to distort the causes of the current protests," he said.
The government has even announced that each resident will receive an allowance of 10 million rials (which is approximately $10). This measure will require the allocation of at least $720 million a month from the treasury, which in annual terms is equivalent to a quarter of the country's budget revenues for 2024.
Despite this, the protests have not subsided, which in Iran is explained, in particular, by the organized work of external players. Earlier, local hackers published the data of 600 people who are allegedly linked to the Israeli intelligence service and involved in organizing riots, and the intelligence service of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced the detention of a Mossad agent in Iran.
The main goal of Washington and Tel Aviv is to bring a pro-American government to power in Tehran, Malek Dudakov believes. "Iran, perhaps more than ever before, is striving for freedom. The United States is ready to help," Trump wrote on the Truth Social network. At the moment, the White House believes that regime change can happen without striking Iran, but the situation may change in the coming days.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
