Who will be lucky: Georgia and Azerbaijan did not share tariffs
A dispute over tariffs is breaking out between Azerbaijan and Georgia. In Baku, they accuse their neighbor of overestimating them and are thinking about shipping goods bypassing Georgian territory. At the same time, the reasons for the disagreement go beyond economics: it's about the struggle for influence in the South Caucasus, competition for logistics routes, and competition for Trump's sympathies. How this conflict will turn out — in the Izvestia article
Tariff impasse
In the context of the peace declaration signed in the United States, Baku and Yerevan began to approach each other on some issues. One of the important points of the bilateral relations was the lifting of restrictions on the transit of goods to Armenia.
But then there's more. Azerbaijan has announced its desire to supply oil products to Yerevan through the territory of Georgia. They emphasize that it will cost Armenia less than supplies from Russia. But difficulties arose almost immediately.
According to Azerbaijani media, the Georgian side has requested duties of about $0.8 per ton-kilometer. For comparison, similar cargoes are allegedly delivered on the territory of Azerbaijan for about $0.02. In Baku, such a difference was considered unjustified.
"It is not completely clear why the Georgian side is raising transit tariffs so sharply," political analyst Ilgar Velizade said in an interview with Izvestia. — Probably, we are talking about the desire to increase revenues, but the scale of such an increase raises questions among market participants.
If in Baku the reasons for the sharp increase in tariffs are not obvious, then in Tbilisi the situation is explained differently. Political analyst Archil Sikharulidze, in an interview with Izvestia, retorts: we are talking about the national interests of Georgia. It is important for the country to join the opening of new logistics transit routes and not fall out of the existing chains.
— And, of course, we are also talking about financial benefits. The logic is simple: if Azerbaijan and Armenia are going to make money, then why should Georgia just sit on the sidelines and receive nothing? Such an approach would be simply absurd," the expert added.
According to him, Baku is pursuing an aggressive and not very friendly agenda against Georgia in the information field. For example, there were reports that Tbilisi was allegedly being held by Azerbaijani trucks at the border. Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze had to step in. After the checks, it turned out that the case of a delay was only in relation to one truck, and there were reasons for this.
"In Tbilisi, they prefer not to react to such rhetoric from Azerbaijani journalists," the political scientist emphasizes. — However, the current situation is increasingly reminiscent of the classic struggle for regional dominance, where information pressure is becoming one of the negotiation tools.
Regional interests
The role of Moscow occupies a special place in the discussion. Today, Russia is the main fuel exporter to Armenia. As political analyst Kamran Hasanov explains to Izvestia, the alleged Azerbaijani supplies do not compete with Russian ones in any way.
"Countries have different production and export scales, so their supplies can exist in parallel," he notes. — This has happened before: Azerbaijani gas through TANAP and Russian gas through the Turkish Stream simultaneously entered the same markets and did not interfere with each other.
In addition, Russia is gradually shifting the focus of its energy exports towards Asian markets, the expert points out. According to him, the possible supply of Azerbaijani petroleum products to Armenia does not mean ousting Russia, but only complements the existing supply structure.
Against this background, Baku seems to be considering alternative logistical scenarios. If the tariffs cannot be agreed, the Azerbaijani side intends to restore direct communication with its southern neighbor — to repair the railway to the Armenian Ijevan. This would allow goods to be sent bypassing Georgian territory.
At the same time, the Armenian section of the railway is under the concession management of the South Caucasus Railway, a subsidiary of Russian Railways. Any restoration work will require approval from the operator.
"Previously, the issue of rehabilitating the line to Ijevan had already been raised, but then the project was considered economically impractical, since the route was perceived as a dead end," Velizade tells Izvestia. — The situation has changed today: the emergence of new transit prospects expands the possibilities of loading the line and makes its restoration more economically justified.
According to him, the implementation of such a project could be beneficial not only to Azerbaijan and Armenia, but also to the Russian cargo carrier, and in the future, to Georgia itself. This railway line connects to the route through Gyumri and could potentially provide access to Turkish territory.
The true motives
As for the current dispute between Baku and Tbilisi, it is unlikely that it will escalate into a full-fledged political conflict. The parties still have enough tools to find a compromise. Moreover, the Georgian side has already stated its readiness to cancel transit duties on a one-time basis for the supply of Azerbaijani energy resources to Armenia. It is possible that a mutually acceptable tariff will be worked out in the near future.
— Nevertheless, the situation itself has become a signal for all participants in the process.: The region needs to consider alternative routes and reduce its dependence on one transit company," Velizade believes. — At the same time, Georgia, which is striving to maintain its role as a key logistical link in the South Caucasus, is also interested in an early settlement of the dispute. What exactly the solution will turn out to be, the near future will show.
The issue of the Zangezur Corridor remains a key element in this context. While it is not open, Georgia retains the role of the main transit link for supplies to Armenia. Sikharulidze admits that Tbilisi is also striving hard to get involved in this project.
— Against the background of the actual cold war with Brussels, it is extremely important for the Georgian Dream to reset relations with Donald Trump and gain the support of the United States as a whole. In this context, it is significant that a representative of the American side visited Georgia as part of the discussion of the "Trump Way," the expert recalls.
He is also convinced that the struggle for influence has intensified in the region today. But neither side has gained absolute dominance yet.
— Azerbaijan is consolidating its positions, Armenia is trying to stay out of the internal crisis, and Georgia continues its policy of cautious multi-vector approach. The country declares its European choice and at the same time builds economic relations with all key partners. This balance, albeit fragile, is generally acceptable to most players today," Sikharulidze notes.
For Russia, it is fundamentally important that these transport and logistics routes are not under the control of hostile forces, Kamran Hasanov adds. Otherwise, there is a risk of restricting access to the Russian military base in Gyumri, including through Iran. Therefore, Moscow's participation in regional formats and infrastructure projects is dictated not only by economic, but also by military and strategic considerations.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
