Giving way: what will the warming between Armenia and Azerbaijan lead to?

The relations between the recent irreconcilable enemies of Armenia and Azerbaijan have begun to warm up. The parties announced the mutual lifting of restrictions on the transit of goods, and a forum was also held in Yerevan with the participation of public figures from the neighboring republic. In the Armenian capital, they emphasize that President Ilham Aliyev is also expected to visit. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

From Aktau to Yerevan

Azerbaijan and Armenia, after years of hostility, began to take steps towards each other. In late October, Ilham Aliyev announced that Baku was lifting all restrictions on the transit of goods to the neighboring republic. According to him, the first such cargo will be a shipment of Kazakh grain. "I think this is a good indicator that peace is already not only on paper, but also in practice," he stressed.

At the same time, the media did not immediately understand exactly how the wheat would get to Yerevan. A number of publications initially wrote that these would be direct deliveries. Later, Armenian Economy Minister Gevorg Papoyan clarified that transport communications between the countries are currently in poor condition, so the route will be more difficult. According to him, the wheat will be delivered to Baku by ferry, and then transported by rail to Armenia through the territory of Georgia.

At the same time, Yerevan did not hide its optimism. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called the events the first stage of lifting the transport blockade. "A few months ago, it seemed incredible. It is important that we take reciprocal steps. Starting today, we are ready to ensure the transit of trucks from Turkey to Azerbaijan and in the opposite direction," he announced.

At the same time, Pashinyan noted that deliveries can be carried out by trucks along the Margara–Yeghegnadzor –Sisian–Goris route, because there are highways and checkpoints of the appropriate level. According to him, in the future it is possible to provide railway communication, but for this it is necessary to carry out repairs and reconstruction of border sections, which will take two to three years.

Later, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk confirmed that Baku and Yerevan had indeed reached an agreement. He noted that the Azerbaijani side is ready to allow Russian products to pass through its territory to Armenia. "In this sense, we have very interesting developments. Now Russian Railways, together with colleagues in the region, are solving issues of how to organize these shipments," he said.

Transit and airplane

In Armenia, not everyone was happy about the news about the lifting of restrictions. Opposition MP Artsvik Minasyan recalled that agriculture had been actively developing in the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic during its existence. According to him, Armenia bought 50-80 thousand tons of wheat from the NKR per year, which covered 25% of the country's needs. "Now you're selling us the so—called world for a few trucks," he protested.

The politician also accused the current authorities of sympathizing with Ilham Aliyev, who "is the culprit of ethnic cleansing in Karabakh." Another MP, Gegham Manukyan, stated that it was allegedly not about the complete lifting of the transport blockade, but about a one-time action by the Azerbaijani authorities. He also drew attention to the fact that supplies will not go directly, but through Georgia, but the Armenian authorities are ready to open the country's border for direct transportation to Baku.

In response, Deputy Speaker of the Parliament Ruben Rubinyan said that wheat supplies would reduce its cost in the domestic market. He also stressed that the authorities plan to restore the railway in the area of the city of Ijevan, after that we will talk about direct cargo transportation. "Earlier, the opposition said that Armenia was making unilateral concessions, now you see that our country is getting additional opportunities," he said.

Against this background, another big story happened. The fact is that at the end of October, for the first time in a long time, a plane from Baku landed in Yerevan. A special flight from AZAL Airlines brought a delegation of Azerbaijani experts and representatives of civil society to the Armenian capital. During the visit, they not only met with their colleagues, but also talked with the Secretary of the Armenian Security Council Armen Grigoryan.

This episode, however, also became a reason for a loud scandal. The fact is that the delegation included Azerbaijani activist Dilara Efendiyeva, who in 2022 called herself the organizer of the blockade of the Lachin corridor connecting Karabakh and Armenia. At that time, the Azerbaijanis prevented the supply of food, medicines, electricity and gas to the unrecognized republic, and the humanitarian disaster was sounding the alarm in Yerevan.

Representatives of the Armenian opposition criticized the event in this regard, saying that the authorities had received people who were closely associated with the Azerbaijani special services. "The henchman of the barbaric Baku regime, who subjected our compatriots in Artsakh [Karabakh] to blockade and starvation, is being received in Yerevan not in prison, but at a high official level. This is a mockery of history, it is a stigma," wrote opposition activist Vardan Voskanyan.

In turn, Boris Navasardyan, a participant of the last forum, said that the organizers specially invited controversial figures to convey the Armenian position to Baku. The country's Foreign Minister, Ararat Mirzoyan, also noted that the authorities did not specifically filter the participants. "We have publicly stated that we want a dialogue. It's not like I want to talk to one person and not the other. She is also a part of that society," he said.

What the experts say

Azerbaijani political analyst Farhad Mammadov recalls that in early August, the leaders of the two countries, Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan, finally agreed on the text of the peace treaty.

— After that, new opportunities for rapprochement appeared, and the entire array of sanctions and restrictions that Azerbaijan and Armenia used against each other gradually began to melt away. I think in the foreseeable future we can expect news from the border delimitation commissions, as well as from those who deal with missing persons. We are also waiting for more certainty on the TRIPP project or the "Trump road", which should connect the main part of Azerbaijan with the Nakhichevan exclave. The topics are broad, and there is a frank and sincere dialogue between Baku and Yerevan on all points," the expert notes.

Russian political analyst Artur Ataev says that the Armenian authorities are very interested in rapprochement with Azerbaijan.

— First of all, the country's authorities want to show the domestic audience that we are not talking about unilateral concessions, Baku is also making steps towards them. Secondly, after improving relations with Azerbaijan, Yerevan hopes to establish cooperation with Turkey, as well as enter the markets of the Middle East. In general, I would like to note that the Transcaucasia is characterized by a scenario where statements by politicians are followed by certain actions. So in this case, at first we heard a lot of words about the world, and now it has come to real progress," he argues.