A plan without action: A growing split in NATO over Ukraine's status
Russia and the United States have come to an understanding of the need for a neutral status for Ukraine, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. However, not everyone in NATO agrees with this: Britain considers joining the alliance irreversible, the kingdom's parliament told Izvestia. At the same time, Moscow will continue to seek Kiev's stable non-aligned status in order to create a guarantee against adventures, said Grigory Karasin, head of the Federation Council's international Affairs committee. Against the background of negotiations, the Russian army continues to liberate territories — on December 11, it became known that an important city in the DPR, Seversk, had passed under the control of the Russian Armed Forces. Meanwhile, the leaders of the EU countries, after consultations with Zelensky, have already presented a new plan to Donald Trump. Analysts believe that Ukraine's strategy is to delay negotiations in order to reach the midterm elections in the United States in November 2026.
How Ukraine and the EU are trying to change the US peace plan
The negotiation process on Ukraine is becoming more and more complicated. Instead of direct negotiations in the Russia–USA and Russia–Ukraine formats, the Western camp held endless internal consultations. On the one hand, the United States and the European trio (Great Britain, Germany and France), along with Ukraine, were on opposite sides of the barricades.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Special Envoy of the President of the United States Stephen Witkoff during the meeting
Washington's proposals are more constructive, so the dialogue with it is progressing. Russian President Vladimir Putin and special envoy of the American leader Steve Witkoff at a recent meeting in the Kremlin eliminated all misunderstandings between Moscow and Washington that arose due to the pause after the summit in Alaska, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.
"The meaning of these understandings is that Ukraine must return to the non—aligned, neutral, nuclear—free foundations of its statehood," the minister stressed during the embassy round table on the settlement of the situation in Ukraine.
The European Union and NATO are in a critical situation, they need to make reasonable compromises, Grigory Karasin, head of the Federation Council's International Affairs Committee, told Izvestia. The Russian Federation will continue to work to achieve a stable non-aligned status for Ukraine, which will create a guarantee against adventures.
In the Russian memorandum, which was handed over to Ukrainian negotiators in June, non-aligned status refers to "Ukraine's refusal to join military alliances and coalitions, as well as a ban on any military activities of third states on its territory and the deployment of foreign armed formations, military bases and military infrastructure there." At the same time, Moscow is not opposed to providing Kiev with security guarantees, but only on a reciprocal basis.
Britain, on the contrary, considers Kiev's path to NATO membership irreversible, the head of the kingdom's delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, Derek Twigg, told Izvestia.
— We are committed to Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration. As the Prime Minister said in his statement to European leaders, "Russia cannot veto Ukraine's path to the EU and NATO," he said.
Berlin and Paris have also repeatedly expressed support for Kiev's entry into the alliance, but after the conflict ended. However, the United States has already publicly expressed its rejection of this idea. Vladimir Zelensky acknowledged that Washington's opinion is shared by several other countries. He was probably referring to Hungary and Slovakia, whose prime ministers announced their intention to block Kiev's bid.
According to Grigory Karasin, Berlin, London and Paris have gone "wild", their actions resemble "physiological convulsions" because they realize that they are losing in this situation. They are already openly declaring the inevitability of war with the Russian Federation in 2030, encroaching on Russian frozen assets.
Vladimir Zelensky, Cyrus Starmer, Friedrich Merz and Emmanuel Macron
"I admit that this will lead to disastrous results for these leaders in their own countries and will stir up political and public activity in the UK, Germany, France and other countries,— Karasin told Izvestia.
The United States is not ready to accept Ukraine into NATO due to both the military conflict on its territory and the chronic corruption problems in the country. But Russia should have no illusions about the current administration. The next presidents may well try to follow the path of George W. Bush, who tried by hook or by crook to draw Kiev into the alliance, Oleg Karpovich, vice rector of the Diplomatic Academy, said in an interview with Izvestia.
— That is why we need to legally consolidate NATO's refusal to expand. And we are talking not only about Ukraine, but also about other countries that the West may have their eyes on, including Moldova, Georgia and Armenia," the expert emphasized.
Karpovich believes that only solving all the tasks of a special military operation can guarantee such an outcome. In the case of Ukraine, its complete demilitarization and denazification.
A shot from the liberated city of Seversk, Donetsk People's Republic
The Russian Federation is trying to achieve this on the battlefield. In particular, Russian troops are increasing the security zone in Sumy and Kharkiv regions, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Army General Valery Gerasimov, said at a meeting with the president. Seversk, an important logistics center in the DPR, also came under full control. From a military point of view, this creates conditions for access to the external defensive contour of the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, the last fortified line of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the territory of Donbass. Fighters of the Eastern Group of Forces have crossed the Gaichur River and are advancing in the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia regions. The assault units of the Southern Group of Forces are advancing in Konstantinovka in the DPR, 45% of the buildings in the settlement are under our control.
New details of Washington's proposals
Meanwhile, new details of the American draft agreement on Ukraine are emerging. According to the Washington Post, Washington is ready to provide Ukraine with security guarantees similar to NATO's Article 5. Moreover, Kiev insists on the ratification of these guarantees by the US Congress, and it will sign separate agreements with the Europeans.
The document also allegedly states that "NATO will no longer expand and will not invite Ukraine to become its member." It is noteworthy that Washington, in its new national security strategy, for the first time officially questions the expansionist dynamics of NATO.
The territorial issue remains the most difficult one. Russia demands the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the territories of the DPR, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions under their control. The US administration is proposing to make territorial exchanges so that the entire Donbas region is under Moscow's control. It is also proposed to create a demilitarized zone along the entire line of contact. However, there are no details about who will control it. Other proposals include the transfer of the Zaporizhia NPP under the control of the United States, restrictions on the size of the Armed Forces and the holding of elections in Ukraine.
After consultations with European allies, Kiev sent its detailed response to the draft peace plan of the United States. In parallel, the leaders of Great Britain, Germany and France spoke with Donald Trump. According to the German Chancellor, Donald Trump was given a document on Ukraine's territorial concessions. As the German Embassy in Russia emphasized to Izvestia, "relevant joint proposals will be coordinated with the American administration in the coming days."
So far, there is no need to expect a unified Western settlement plan, even within the European Union there are different opinions about how much it is worth supporting Ukraine and what the EU's task is in this regard, Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor of political Theory at the MGIMO Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, noted in a comment to Izvestia.
—The proposals of France and Germany, worked out jointly with the UK, are an extreme position that is formulated rather bypassing the pan—European discussion than within its framework," the expert said.
Loshkarev believes that Ukraine's strategy, as it was a month ago, is to delay the negotiation process. Instead of one document, the Ukrainian side proposes to discuss four, while no concessions have been recorded on key issues — the liberation of the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic and full—fledged demilitarization. Kiev still hopes to make it to the midterm congressional elections, which the Democrats can win. Then the chances of implementing Donald Trump's peace initiatives will decrease significantly.
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