Peaceful excess: Europe is delaying the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine with a new plan

The split between Ukraine's allies, the United States on the one hand and Europe on the other, is noticeably intensifying. Kiev and Brussels actually rejected a key point of the American peace plan, saying that Ukraine would not make territorial concessions, and are now preparing their own version of the document for Washington. The Europeans are clearly aiming to delay the settlement, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. However, the EU is still looking for money to help Kiev. The countries of the community are already close to a decision on the frozen Russian assets by a qualified majority. Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Izvestia that this would have serious consequences for countries, as well as for legal entities and individuals.

The United States is moving away from Europe

Tension between the United States and Europe is growing noticeably. Washington continues to put pressure on Kiev to accept the peace agreement plan. However, Vladimir Zelensky expresses clear disagreement with the points of the document. According to him, negotiations on the American version of the agreement have reached an impasse — Ukraine is not ready to make territorial concessions to Russia.

At the same time, US President Donald Trump, according to the Financial Times, hopes that the deal will be agreed by Christmas, which is celebrated by Catholics and Protestants on December 25. He gave Zelensky himself "days" to make a decision.

Apparently, in order not to agree to the demands of the United States, on December 9, Zelensky decided to enlist the support of another ally and arrived in Italy to meet with the country's Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni. The purpose of the visit is to discuss the European version of Trump's 20—point document, prepared a day earlier, and to hand it over to the United States.

According to Zelensky, three documents are being discussed: "There is a constantly changing 20-point framework document, and this is normal. The second is security guarantees. I am waiting for reciprocal proposals from our military and their communication with the Americans. And this should be combined with the position of the coalition of willing. The third document is recovery. It should work when the war ends or there is a cease-fire." At the same time, he admitted that Ukraine currently has no prospects of joining NATO.

The decision to go against Washington was made by the same European partners — on December 8 in London at Zelensky's meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The latter publicly stated that he was "skeptical about some details in the documents coming from the United States." According to him, the coming days "may be crucial" for everyone.

Europe is not seeking any peace, Vladislav Maslennikov, director of the Department of European Problems at the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia.

— They (the Europeans — Ed.) are clearly aiming to delay the settlement. It's been clear to everyone for a long time," he said.

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Gradually, this understanding begins to reach the United States. Washington has figured out what the Zelensky regime is and what the Europeans really want, Vladimir Jabarov, deputy chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, told Izvestia.

— The Europeans, hiding behind the Americans, want to inflict a strategic defeat on us at any cost. But Trump is categorically against this, because in addition to the high costs of supporting Ukrainians in this confrontation, powerful instability is also developing. It seems to me that the Americans have understood this, and they are also very disappointed in Europe," the senator added.

Trump really understands the motivation of the current European leaders and deliberately distances them from the settlement process. In a recent interview with Politico, he called Europe a "decaying" union of countries with "weak leaders" and accused European leaders of "talking a lot about Ukraine, but achieving nothing." The head of the White House also reminded Kiev that Russia's negotiating position is stronger than Ukraine's, and it's time for Zelensky to pull himself together and start agreeing to the proposals in the document. However, he added that senior officials from the Ukrainian leader's team liked the recent settlement proposal.

He was probably referring to the negotiations in Miami. Recall that they took place immediately after the meeting of US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

At that meeting in the Kremlin, the question of Zelensky's legitimacy could also be raised. For Moscow, this is one of the main points that must be taken into account in the agreement. Putin has repeatedly noted that the Ukrainian leadership in its current form is illegitimate, and only the Verkhovna Rada has the authority to conclude agreements.

Washington's position in this regard is becoming clearer. According to Trump, Ukraine is using the conflict to avoid electoral procedures in the country, but the Ukrainian people should have such a choice.

— And maybe Zelensky would have won. I do not know who would have won. But they haven't had an election in a long time. You know, they talk about democracy, but it's getting to the point where it's not democracy anymore," Trump said.

Zelensky responded by saying that Ukraine would be ready to hold elections within the next 60-90 days if the United States and Europe helped it. At the same time, Washington's increasingly harsh rhetoric against Kiev automatically raises the question of how much longer Europe will be able to support Ukraine if the United States starts demanding a different course from its allies.

Will Europe be able to support Ukraine alone

Washington will continue to push Brussels on the issue of a peace agreement on Ukraine, says Dmitry Novikov, head of the Laboratory of Political Geography and Modern Geopolitics at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. At the same time, the Europeans may still resist the influence of the United States for a while, but sooner or later they will fall into the so-called "scissors".

— On the one hand, there is military pressure from Russia, on the other — political pressure from the United States. Europe cannot fight both at the same time. The EU needs to provide Ukraine with military assistance to deter Russian military pressure on it, and economic assistance to deter American political pressure. Europe does not have such opportunities now," the expert noted.

At the same time, the United States will continue to adhere to its own negotiating tactics and experience of interacting with Ukrainians, Novikov is confident.

Brussels understands perfectly well that in such circumstances, financial assistance to Ukraine remains on it. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, during a speech in the European Parliament, described three options for sponsoring Kiev for the next two years — direct contributions from member states, a common EU loan on the markets or the use of income from Russian assets as part of the so-called "reparation loan." To do this, the EU wants to use funds, which are mostly held in the Belgian Euroclear depository. Belgium is categorically against this decision. According to the country's Prime Minister, Bart de Wever, Moscow may demand its funds back and Brussels will have to return them.

The Russian government is also developing a package of retaliatory measures in case of confiscation of Russian assets. According to Moscow, such actions by the EU would be a real theft.

— The president said that (in this question. — Ed.) the government was involved, and, of course, there is already an understanding (how to act. Such steps will not remain unanswered, they will have very serious consequences for countries, legal entities, and individuals,— Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the Russian leader, told Izvestia.

Nevertheless, the pressure on Belgium continues. Von der Leyen stated that a decision on this issue could be made by a majority vote, rather than by consensus. The head of the European Council, Antonio Costa, confirmed on December 9 that the countries are close to obtaining such a qualified majority. This is really the only way for the EU to continue supporting Ukraine — all the countries of the union are not ready to get into new loans anymore.

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Will Brussels decide on such a radical step and how can Moscow respond to it?

The European Union does not have enough funds to continue this line. Almost all EU states are burdened with debts in violation of the treaties of the European Union itself, former MEP and expert on European law Gunnar Beck told Izvestia.

"If the EU continues to support Ukraine, it will have to increase its debt, just as member states will have to do," Beck said.

And he stressed that governments can only increase debt up to a certain limit, but the economic effect of further debt increases will be devastating.