Loans and consequences: the growth of overdue debts threatens a banking crisis
The risks of a systemic banking crisis are increasing in Russia amid an increase in overdue loans, analysts at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting (CMAKP) warn, Izvestia has reviewed their report. As of October, the share of "bad" loans — those that have not been paid for more than three months — reached 7%. A level of 10% is considered critical. At the same time, in nine months, the volume of problem loans increased 1.6 times and exceeded 2 trillion rubles. The main reasons are high interest rates and an increase in the debt burden, a slowdown in consumer lending and a deterioration in the financial situation of companies. What this can lead to and how the situation in the Central Bank is assessed is in the Izvestia article.
Under what conditions will there be a banking crisis in Russia
A systemic banking crisis may occur in Russia before October next year. CMAKP analysts assess this risk as average, according to their report "What do the leading indicators of systemic financial and macroeconomic risks show?", which was reviewed by Izvestia.
According to the report, a systemic banking crisis is a situation where at least one of the following events occurs:
the share of problem assets in the banking system exceeds 10%;
customers withdraw money from accounts and deposits en masse;
To prevent the consequences of the above situations, an urgent reorganization or nationalization of a significant part of financial organizations (more than 10%) or large one—time support — over 2% of GDP - from the state or companies is carried out.
Analysts note that none of these conditions are currently being fulfilled. However, the growing share of "bad" loans in the total loan portfolio of banks indicates the risk of a crisis in the future. "Bad" debts are loans for which the delay exceeds 90 days and the probability of repayment is extremely low.
According to the BCI Scoring Bureau, as of October, the total amount of "bad" debts reached 2.3 trillion rubles, according to the CMACP document. In nine months, this figure has grown 1.6 times more than in the whole of last year (490 billion against 302 billion in 2024).
The fact is that the quality of the portfolio of unsecured consumer loans issued in the second half of 2023 and early 2024 at high rates is gradually deteriorating, including to new borrowers without a credit history, Renat Akhmetov, a leading expert at the CMACP, explained to Izvestia. In addition, the risks of old mortgages issued at the peak of demand for preferential programs are beginning to appear.
The main threat is a possible domino effect. A reduction in output and profits in the real sector against the background of high interest rates may cause an increase in non-payments on corporate loans, said Fyodor Sidorov, a private investor and founder of the School of Practical Investment. This, in turn, will worsen the capital adequacy of banks, and can also cause depositors to become nervous.
The Central Bank told Izvestia that it, in turn, sees no reason to expect a banking crisis. According to the regulator, the main risks in retail have now emerged. In the unsecured segment, the 10-month delay reached 12.9%, adding 3.9 percentage points, but these loans are more than 90% covered by reserves, they said.
The Central Bank also does not see any significant problems with the corporate portfolio. They said that the share of "bad" loans does not exceed 5%, they are also almost 90% covered by reserves and collateral. About 7% more are potentially problematic loans, which banks continue to actively work on, including restructuring.
Why business delays are increasing
— As lending to the population has stopped growing, problem debts are becoming more noticeable. In addition, the high key rate, which reached 21%, seriously increased the debt burden," Fyodor Sidorov emphasized.
A significant part of the "bad" debts are hidden under the guise of restructurings, said Renat Akhmetov from CMAKP. In 2022-2025, about 2.4 trillion loans to the public were reviewed, which is 6.2% of the banks' total retail portfolio as of October.
"At the same time, in the first three quarters of 2025 alone, the volume of retail restructurings reached 858 billion rubles, which is twice as much as in the same period of 2024," the expert noted.
In the corporate segment, by the end of the third quarter, a fifth of the portfolio of loans to legal entities and SMEs was reviewed, the analyst said. According to him, without the Central Bank's measures to ease the debt burden of the population and companies introduced after the crises of 2020 and 2022, the scale of the problems would have been more serious.
The regulator indicates that against the background of a slowing economy, credit risk is becoming the main vulnerability, Renat Akhmetov recalled. And this is no longer about retail, but about business. The financial situation of a number of companies is deteriorating, and export industries are losing revenue due to lower external demand and prices. The expert believes that the crisis of "bad debts" in the corporate segment may begin in the III–IV quarters of next year.
Why Russians have more and more "bad" loans
According to the Scoring Bureau, Russians also began to delay payments on consumer loans more often. As of November, the share of loans overdue by three months reached 14.2%, having increased by 4 percentage points over the year.
According to the BCI, long-term delays are increasing in all segments.: The fastest is in mortgages (+75% per year), car loans (+53%) and credit cards (+38%).
The increase in delinquency in consumer loans shows that the market is being rebuilt, says Oleg Lagutkin, CEO of Scoring Bureau. According to him, banks are reducing the volume of risky loans due to strict requirements, and previously accumulated problem loans continue to put pressure on the system. As a result, conditions for high-risk borrowers may become more expensive.
This dynamic makes it especially important to develop pre-trial debt restructuring mechanisms: without them, the combination of increasing delinquency and limited lending forms a vicious circle for many borrowers, the expert concluded.
The National Bureau of Credit Histories also confirmed the increase in delinquency. According to NBKI, at the beginning of November, the share of problem debt in the unsecured segment reached almost 13%, said Alexey Volkov, Marketing Director of BKI.
The increase in delinquencies over 90 days is a natural reaction of the portfolio to the reduction in new disbursements, which began in the second half of 2024, said Vice President for Retail Risks at Dom Bank.Russian Federation" Roman Evdokimov.
VTB reported that there was no significant increase in loan delinquencies, but now they are more strictly assessing the solvency of customers. Sberbank also notes a slight increase in problem loans following general market trends. At the same time, the bank points out that after the reduction of the key rate and the resumption of high-quality disbursements, the growth rate of delinquency slowed down.
What is the threat of the growth of problem debts
The deterioration in the quality of loans will force banks to reduce their risk appetites, otherwise they will have to allocate more funds to reserves, which will reduce their profitability, the CMACP document says.
The main threat to the growth of "bad" debts is not so much the risks for banks as the deterioration of access to loans for bona fide borrowers with a good history. Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, believes that it will be more difficult for many of them to get money precisely when they are most needed, for example, to buy a home.
For banks, an increase in the share of problem loans means a shortfall in interest income and the need to form more reserves, which reduces net profit. Therefore, as the expert said, the Central Bank does not expect that in 2025 their profit will repeat the record of 2024 of 3.8 trillion rubles.
"In turn, the tightening of credit conditions for businesses and the public will restrain the expansion of economic activity and GDP growth," said Vladimir Eremkin, senior researcher at the IPEI Presidential Academy.
Igor Dodonov, an analyst at Finam Financial Group, admits a further increase in bad debts, but considers talk of an imminent banking crisis premature. According to him, credit institutions have built up a significant safety margin in recent years: the total capital above the standards is estimated at about 8 trillion. The central Bank also maintains strict regulatory measures that limit the increase in risks, he added. In addition, according to the expert, the position of the regulator and the Ministry of Finance against the withdrawal of banks' "excess profits" is apparently aimed at preserving this reserve in case of possible shocks.
The Central Bank is already taking steps to reduce the delay, in particular, the regulator lowered the key rate to 16.5%, Natalia Milchakova recalled. The expert believes that lenders could additionally encourage borrowers to arrange collateral for large loans "for any purpose" — for example, collateral for property or a car — in exchange for a lower rate. According to Natalia Melnikova, in 2026, the share of delinquencies in the portfolio may decrease from 7% to 4-5% against the background of falling prices.
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