Without AI memory: What happened to RAM prices
The global computer components market has faced the most severe price shock in recent years. The price increase affected RAM— an ordinary and previously unremarkable component. Since the beginning of 2025, prices for DDR4 and DDR5 modules have soared two to three times, and the shortage caused by artificial intelligence threatens to last for years. Izvestia figured out why "RAM" has become a scarce commodity, how manufacturers are trying to make money from the crisis, and what to expect from Russian buyers.
Price shock – 2
Even at the beginning of the year, the memory market was in a state of oversupply. Buyers could purchase a 32 GB DDR5 kit for a comfortable $95, and DDR4 for even less. The situation seemed stable, and analysts predicted further price declines. However, by the second half of the year, the market had turned upside down. By October 2025, the same DDR5 kit was already priced under $184, and DDR4, which many considered obsolete, suddenly rose even more, matching the price of the new DDR5. Spot prices for DRAM chips on the open market by the end of the year showed an increase of almost 187% year-on-year. According to industry experts, memory, which cost a dollar at the beginning of the year, began to cost two or more by the end of the year.
The current situation is causing deja vu with the events of several years ago. In 2017, the mining of cryptocurrencies, and in 2021, its combination with the pandemic boom on PCs led to a total shortage and speculative price increase for video cards. Back then, gamers and ordinary users had been waiting for months for the opportunity to buy GPUs at an adequate price.
In 2025, miners were replaced by corporations building artificial intelligence infrastructure. Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and OpenAI, as well as Chinese corporations, are investing hundreds of billions of dollars in AI infrastructure. These systems require huge amounts of memory to operate: both specialized high-speed (HBM) and standard DDR4/DDR5 server memory. The production of AI chips today takes three times more capacity than conventional DRAM.
The current situation with the sharp rise in prices for RAM devices is very similar to the explosive rise in prices for video cards that has been observed worldwide in recent years, explained Tatiana Tirskikh, Managing Director for Sovereign and Regional Ratings at Expert RA.
"Back then, one of the key factors in the rise in price of video cards was the high demand from cryptocurrency miners, when wholesale purchases completely cleared warehouses, and manufacturers could not quickly adapt production to such high demand for a number of reasons," the expert admits.
The power of monopoly
At the same time, the "big three" memory manufacturers, which control about 70% of the market, began a planned withdrawal of outdated standards from the market. In 2024-2025, the production of DDR4 and mobile LPDDR4X was drastically reduced, and in some places completely stopped. The problem is that a huge number of users and corporate clients still rely on this standard. The sudden disappearance of supply with continued demand led to a sharp jump in prices for DDR4.
Electronics manufacturers, anticipating a shortage, switched to a strategy of double and triple orders, as it already happened in times of shortage of video cards. Large companies such as Lenovo have openly announced that they are accumulating memory reserves 50% higher than usual in order to protect themselves for 2026. This creates a vicious circle: panic on the part of buyers further exacerbates the shortage. Manufacturers' DRAM inventory levels dropped from a record 31 weeks in early 2023 to a critical 8 weeks by November 2025.
Most of the global RAM market is controlled by three companies: Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron. Like Nvidia and AMD at the time, they are not only in no hurry to increase production, fearing a new oversupply, but also actively using their position. It is reported that in the fourth quarter of 2025, they demanded a 30% increase in contract prices from customers.
Samsung, the largest player, postponed the price announcement altogether in October, which caused panic in the open market and a 25% price jump in a week. The financial statements of memory manufacturers are breaking records: for example, SK Hynix reported record revenue in the third quarter of 2025, and Samsung's operating margin on standard memory reached 40%.
According to Russian industry publications and retailers, the complete disappearance of RAM from store shelves is not expected. Large chains operate under long-term contracts and have created insurance reserves.
But the prices are not so rosy. RAM kits, which were considered affordable six months ago, now stand as a full-fledged game console. For example, the 64 GB DDR5 package already exceeds the cost of the PlayStation 5 on some sites. Analysts in the domestic market agree with their Western colleagues: the high price level will remain at least until the end of 2026. Temporary disruptions to specific models are possible, but total shortages are likely to be avoided.
When back
According to Tirskikh, prices for RAM devices may increase further in the near future if demand from the AI industry and data centers continues to grow faster than the expansion of production capacity, and manufacturers maintain a cautious strategy and do not rush to launch new memory production lines.
— In addition, a new round of price increases is possible with restrictions on the supply of components, for example, due to geopolitical factors or supply chain disruptions. In general, further price dynamics depend on the pace of investment in memory production, the volume of new requests from cloud services and AI, as well as the global economic situation. A rapid price reduction is possible only with a sharp reduction in demand or overproduction, which is not expected in the near future. It will take at least a couple of years for the market to come to a stable balance, since most large companies need time to modernize and increase production," the Izvestia interlocutor said.
Note that some pessimists are already talking about a "super cycle" of rising prices for components, which may last three to four years, up to 2028-2029. All this time, owners of home computers, and other computer equipment, will have to save extra money.
Meanwhile, the crisis has already begun to spread to other segments of the components market. For example, Phison, a company specializing in SSD controllers, recently warned of a shortage of NAND chips that has led to a doubling in prices over the past six months, and predicted that demand is likely to outstrip supply over the next few years.
Corporations, unlike consumers, can make stocks. For example, Lenovo accumulates components, having reserves of memory and other important computer equipment, which are about 50% higher than usual. The amount of RAM, which, according to information provided by Bloomberg, Lenovo reserves, will allow it to keep the cost of its products at a low level, while memory prices are rising. Moreover, it is claimed that Lenovo has enough reserves to last until the end of 2025 and the whole of 2026. The company has so many stocks that it claims it can handle "any shortage" better than any of its competitors. But it is precisely these actions that become another reason for the price increase.
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