The economist assessed the impact of indexation of insurance pensions on the economy and regions

The indexation of insurance pensions by 7.6% from January 1, 2026 will give a tangible but short-term boost to domestic demand and moderately support the retail market. Olga Veretennikova, vice president of the Borsell analytical company, told Izvestia on November 20.

"An increase in average insurance payments by almost 2 thousand rubles for 38 million recipients means an increase of about 76 billion rubles per month, or about 0.9 trillion rubles for the full year 2026. Pensioners have a high marginal propensity to consume basic necessities and services of housing and communal services, medicine and household services. Assuming a realistic consumption propensity range of 0.75–0.85, the direct increase to annual consumer spending will be approximately 0.7–0.8 trillion rubles. In nominal GDP, this is about 0.3–0.4 percentage points; in real terms, the momentum is smaller due to a partial "spread" to imported components, higher inflation in certain segments and price adjustments in services," the economist said.

According to her, the indexation will primarily affect those regions where pensions are the main source of household income. The most noticeable increase in consumer demand is expected in the central and northwestern regions outside large agglomerations, in the Volga region, in the south of the country, as well as in certain regions of Siberia and the Far East, as there is a higher multiplier of household spending and a lower propensity to save.

Veretennikova stressed that in Moscow, St. Petersburg and large industrial and raw material centers, the effect will be less pronounced due to a more diversified income structure of the population.

It's hard: the gap between the pensions of the employed and the unemployed has reached a minimum since 2021.

When will the payments be equal and what does this mean for the economy?

"For the budget, the indexation of insurance pensions means an increase in the transfer from the federal budget to the Social Fund. According to an approximate estimate, the additional cost of insurance pensions will amount to about 0.9 trillion rubles per year, while the April indexation of social pensions by 6.8% will add several tens of billions more, resulting in a cumulative increase in liabilities of about 1-1.1 trillion rubles. Some of this will return to budget revenues through indirect taxes, primarily VAT: given the structure of the consumer basket and the share of exempt positions, the expected refund will be about 120-150 billion rubles per year, plus smaller amounts of excise taxes and personal income tax," the expert explained.

As for the inflationary effect, she added, it will be moderate. The economist estimated his contribution in the range of 0.1–0.3 percentage points, noting that the greatest impact will be in the first half of the year. According to her, the Bank of Russia takes such decisions into account in advance in the baseline scenarios, so the impact on monetary policy will remain minimal.

Veretennikova concluded that the indexation of insurance pensions itself would be a "targeted support for social sustainability" in the face of slowing economic growth. Risks to the macroeconomics will remain limited, provided there is a balanced fiscal policy.

On the same day, Deputy Minister of Labor Andrey Pudov announced that insurance pensions in Russia will increase by 7.6% from the beginning of 2026. The increase will affect 38 million people. The average payout amount will increase by almost 2 thousand rubles and will amount to more than 27 thousand rubles. The next indexation will take place on April 1 and will affect recipients of social pensions — their payments will increase by 6.8%.

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