Delhi triangle: India and Russia are preparing for the summit amid pressure from the United States

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with his Indian counterpart Subramaniam Jaishankar in Moscow as part of a meeting of the SCO Council of Heads of Government. The foreign ministers are actively preparing for the summit, which will be held in New Delhi in early December. Special attention will be focused on this visit of Vladimir Putin, given the desire of the United States to force India to abandon Russian oil. Izvestia investigated whether the United States could undermine the strategic partnership between Moscow and New Delhi.

Preparations are in full swing

"We are currently actively preparing for Putin's visit to India, which is scheduled before the end of this year. We hope that this will be a meaningful visit. As for its semantic and documentary content, let's not get ahead of ourselves. We will promptly announce all the agreements that are planned to be reached," said Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Dmitry Korotaev

So far, the Kremlin has not announced the official dates of the Russian leader's trip to New Delhi, but it is expected that it will take place in early December, since the visit is timed to coincide with the Russian-Indian Forum, which will be operated by Roscongress.

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The leaders of the United States and Hungary discussed the possibility of such contacts, the Ukrainian conflict and Russian oil.

The foundation said that a forum with the participation of "high-ranking officials from among the official and business circles" of Russia and India will be held on December 4-5 in New Delhi. It is planned to discuss the expansion of industrial cooperation between the two countries and the expansion of the entry of Indian machinery and technical products into the Russian market, Russia's increased purchases of Indian food and pharmaceutical products, a mutual increase in the flow of tourists, as well as an increase in labor imports from India.

The Economic Times newspaper, citing sources, wrote about the latter point, in particular. According to her information, the parties plan to sign an agreement on labor mobility at the summit, which will lead to an increase in the number of Indian citizens working in the Russian Federation.

Photo: Global Look Press/Zhuo Chen/ZUMAPRESS.com

The talks between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Indian Foreign Minister Subramaniam Jaishankar were the last preparations for the summit. Earlier it became known that the Russian leader instructed the government on options for developing trade and economic relations with New Delhi, including logistics, settlements and eliminating trade imbalances.

An important visit

Putin's upcoming visit has symbolic significance. In 2000, together with then-Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the Russian President signed a declaration on strategic partnership, under which the parties agreed to hold annual summit meetings alternately in Russia and India.

However, New Delhi and Moscow subsequently had to break this tradition. The Russian leader's last visit to India took place in 2021, a year before the Ukrainian crisis.

The current meeting will take place against the backdrop of intense pressure on the Indian authorities from the United States. Donald Trump is seeking to get New Delhi to abandon purchases of Russian oil. The owner of the White House is not limited to threats alone. In early August, he imposed additional 25 percent tariffs on India due to its purchases of Russian oil and petroleum products. In late October, the U.S. Treasury Department included two of Russia's largest oil and gas companies in a new package of sanctions.

Photo: Global Look Press/Boris Babanov/Russian Look

This forced their Indian counterparts, fearing harsh measures from the United States, to start looking for an alternative to Russian oil. In addition, the Indian state-owned Oil India Corporation cannot receive dividends in the amount of $300 million received from Russian oil fields, as funds are blocked in Russian bank accounts due to international sanctions. For this reason, it is impossible to transfer them to India. The company hopes that it will be possible to discuss this issue at the upcoming summit.

In the US, meanwhile, they make it clear that they plan to only increase the pressure. The day before, Trump announced his readiness to support a bill being developed in Congress on the introduction of restrictive measures against any state that does business with the Russian Federation. In particular, the initiative provides for secondary sanctions against Russia's trading partners.

What do the experts think

Alexey Kupriyanov, head of the Center for the Indian Ocean Region of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia that relations between Russia and India are developing steadily.

— The trade turnover is more than $70 billion. India, in fact, plays the role of a transit country for Russian oil flowing from there to Western countries. The only problem is the trade imbalance, which is correcting too slowly," the expert explained.

According to him, everything is fine between the two countries politically, the parties have resumed the practice of annual meetings at the highest level, and dialogue is actively developing through all channels.

Donald Trump

Photo: REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

— Trump was able to push India more towards Russia and China. His instability and unpredictability are frapping Indians, who are only further strengthening their commitment to strategic autonomy and seeking to diversify their foreign policy," the expert concluded.

Andrei Kortunov, Scientific Director of the Russian Council on International Affairs, believes that Russian-Indian relations are specific.

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— They can be described as a "happy marriage without children." There has always been political understanding between the two countries, but the level of development of economic relations has been inferior to Russia's cooperation with other partners. In this regard, many people were happy to see the sharp increase in trade turnover in recent years," the political scientist believes.

Photo: RIA Novosti/Alexey Danichev

According to him, at the same time, there are many problematic points in the relations between the two countries.

— Russia has become the second largest country after China in terms of trade with India. At the same time, the trade deficit in the relationship is unprecedentedly large, more than $50 billion a year. Trade is not sufficiently diversified: the main driver of trade is Russian oil supplies. Sanctions risks remain, which can become a constraint on bilateral relations," the expert believes.

The analyst stressed that there are many promising areas for cooperation.

— This includes the service sector, biotechnology, and energy cooperation in the context of the green transition. It is important to move from trade to full—fledged industrial cooperation in the future, which will become the basis of joint production chains," the expert concluded.