Going downhill: The United States is trying to oust Russia from Central Asia
The United States is trying to strengthen its influence in Central Asia. On November 6, Washington hosted the C5+1 summit with the leaders of the five countries in the region. Economic and environmental cooperation issues were on the agenda, but the main interest of the United States in the region was minerals. But there is another key point: Washington is trying to weaken Russia's position, experts tell Izvestia. However, it is difficult to call these attempts successful, Moscow will still remain a key partner of the Central Asian countries. Nevertheless, the United States does have niches in which they can strengthen their positions in the region, such as digitalization, technology, and AI.
The C5+1 Summit
On October 6, the United States-Central Asia (C5+1) summit was held in Washington with the participation of the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, who were hosted by Donald Trump.
The event once again signals a significant resumption of U.S. interest in the region. The previous meeting was held in 2023. It is worth emphasizing that the C5+1 format is becoming increasingly popular for the interaction of major foreign policy players with the countries of Central Asia. For example, agreements have already been reached between the countries of the region with China and the European Union in this format. In addition, the summit of the "five" and the Russian Federation was held in Dushanbe in October 2025.
The agenda of the Washington summit includes economic and environmental issues, as well as cooperation in the field of security and energy. However, the main topic of the meeting was the US interest in mineral reserves in Central Asia. By the way, the EU has repeatedly shown interest in them.
The United States, however, has long openly demonstrated its interest in resources: on November 5, Secretary of State Marco Rubio explicitly stated this at a meeting with the foreign ministers of the region. "You are striving to master the resources with which God has blessed your countries and which will allow you to diversify your economy. I personally intend to visit all five countries next year. The trip will probably take a week," he stressed.
Earlier, U.S. Ambassador to Kazakhstan Julie Staff drew attention to the fact that one of her priorities in her new post will be to ensure the participation of American investors in the development of critically important minerals in the republic. The United States is also involved in exploration work on rare earth metals at the Akbulak deposit.
The United States needs the natural resources of the region, in particular rare earth metals and uranium, to provide raw materials for the industry, such as nuclear energy and the defense complex.
However, Washington will have to offer something in return, such as investment and trade expansion. On the eve of the summit, it became known that a proposal to repeal the Jackson–Vanik amendment for Central Asian countries would be submitted to the US Senate.
The Jackson–Vanik Amendment, adopted in 1974, initially prohibited the granting of trade preferences to countries that restrict the emigration of their citizens. This amendment was mainly directed against the former Soviet Union. The Central Asian countries gained independence more than 30 years ago, but these restrictions still hinder trade and cooperation with the United States.
However, such a move should not be interpreted as a sign of significant U.S. interest in the region.
— In general, the interests of the United States in Central Asia are exclusively instrumental. The region itself is of no value to Washington — it is primarily interested in natural resources, which are in short supply in the United States," Stanislav Pritchin, head of the Central Asia Sector at IMEMO RAS, told Izvestia.
Another leitmotif of the meeting is related to the figure of Trump himself. There are no active conflicts in the region right now, however, Trump's personal contribution to the development of Central Asia is probably important. According to Daria Saprynskaya, a researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the United States under the current leader will try to create the effect of a natural partnership.
Russia's role in the region
The key interest of the United States in Central Asia, of course, is related to the containment of Russia and China. The trade turnover of the United States with the region in 2024 amounted to $7 billion, while that of China and Russia amounted to more than $66 billion and over $45 billion, respectively.
"Washington is trying to strengthen its influence through infrastructure, energy and digital initiatives, with an emphasis on the sovereignty of the countries of the region and the erosion of Eurasian formats," Daria Saprynskaya added.
But Russia has been a key economic and political partner of all Central Asian countries for many years.
"We are connected not only by history and cultural code, but also by specific projects: the construction of nuclear power plants, an extensive network of Russian universities, migration flows, infrastructure and investment projects," she said.
Moscow now provides more than 30% of all foreign trade in Central Asia, and the volume of settlements in national currencies with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan continues to grow, already exceeding 80%. Russia is also investing in the countries of the region. Energy remains the flagship of cooperation. Rosatom implements projects for the construction of nuclear power plants in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. The Corporation is also ready to discuss with Tajikistan the construction of large or small-capacity nuclear power plants in the republic.
The Russian Federation is building large industrial parks in the region: Chirchik and Jizzakh are operating in Uzbekistan, and the opening of two more facilities in the republic is being discussed — in Bukhara and Navoi. A similar project is planned with Tajikistan: work on its construction should be completed by November 2027.
The parties also cooperate within the framework of international organizations, including the SCO and the EEA. Work is underway within the framework of the CSTO to strengthen security.
Secondary US sanctions
Nevertheless, it is worth emphasizing that Russia now mainly focuses on the common past, but does not formulate an image of a common future. And the problem is that the United States can fill this space, Daria Saprynskaya continued.
"We should not forget about the real leverage of Western pressure — secondary sanctions," she said. — So far, the countries of the region have successfully maneuvered, but concerns about possible exposure to such measures in Central Asian countries remain significant.
Previously, the United States had repeatedly threatened the region with secondary sanctions for organizing re-exports to the Russian Federation.
In general, Washington has a chance to strengthen its position in certain segments, including AI, digital infrastructure, data centers and technologies, which in the future may affect the nature of the region's interaction with Russia in a number of areas.
"The summit will create additional competition between projects, but will not lead to antagonism: it will strengthen the transport, logistics and digital agenda, where Kazakhstan acts as the driving force of the region and a platform for dialogue, while maintaining a strategic partnership with Russia," Alibek Tazhibayev, director of the Eurasian Monitoring Analytical Research Center, told Izvestia.
However, due to broad cross-industry ties and close cooperation, Washington is unlikely to be able to sever Russia's relations with the Central Asian states.
— Geography, the depth of cooperation, logistics, and the cultural and linguistic environment are long-term factors. For Central Asia, more than the United States does not mean at all that it is "less than Russia," but more options within the framework of a proven multi—vector approach, he concluded.
Moscow stressed that they consider the summit of the leaders of the Central Asian countries in the C5+1 format in the United States to be a normal development of foreign policy and building their own relations with partners. "It is the right of any state to build its external plans," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
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