Boycott in a bag: is Iraq facing a political crisis after the elections

The Iraqi parliamentary elections scheduled for November 11 are taking place amid uncertainty: Iraqi Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr has called for a boycott of the vote, and his supporters remain divided, increasing political tensions. An adviser to the Prime Minister, Fadi Al-Shamri, told Izvestia that Sadr's decision would not affect the legitimacy of the vote. At the same time, Russia is interested in maintaining Baghdad's pragmatic course for cooperation on energy and economic projects. Increased political competition and internal contradictions even in the Shiite camp raise questions: Should we expect a surge in violence or will the elections be held calmly?

The balance of power in Iraq

Iraq is preparing for parliamentary elections scheduled for November 11. The future of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al—Sudani, the stability of the country, as well as the balance of foreign policy against the backdrop of a difficult regional situation are at stake. The situation is complicated by the decision of influential Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr to call on his supporters to boycott the vote, which exacerbates relations within his camp and increases the risks of political violence.

In a published letter, al-Sadr wrote: "I will never be the patron saint of criminals." His Sadrist movement (the "National Shiite Movement") won the most votes in the 2021 elections, but after an unsuccessful attempt to form a coalition with Sunnis and Kurds in 2022, al-Sadr announced his temporary retirement from politics.

Advisor to the Prime Minister Fadi Al-Shamri stressed that Sadr's decision does not undermine the legitimacy of the elections and the political legitimacy of the Shiite component.

— Many political forces want the al-Sadr movement to return to the political life of the country and participate in decision-making. We respect Mr. Sadr's decision and evaluate the conditions under which it was made," he said in an interview with Izvestia.

More than 7,000 candidates are participating in the parliamentary elections, united in 90 electoral lists, which are competing for 329 seats in the Council of Representatives. According to the 2005 Constitution, the President of the country, elected by Parliament for a four-year term, nominates the Prime Minister, subject to approval by the legislature. The candidate from the largest post-election coalition becomes Prime Minister, although not necessarily from the party that won the most seats.

Traditionally, Iraqi voters support parties associated with ethnic and religious communities: Shiites, Sunnis, Kurds, as well as Christians, Yezidis and other minorities. The political system fixes the distribution of key posts: the president should be a Kurd, the prime minister a Shiite, and the speaker of parliament a Sunni.

Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, who took office in 2022 and is seeking a second term, heads the Reconstruction and Development coalition. The list unites several Shiite parties and builds a campaign around promises to improve the quality of public services, fight corruption and strengthen state power.

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And how can Moscow help Baghdad?

The Rule of Law coalition led by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki retains significant influence. It competes with the al-Sudani camp for leadership within the Shiite political establishment.

The Shiite parties Badr and Al-Sadiqoun are closely linked to Iran and have their own armed formations, which in the past has become a factor of political tension.

The split within the Shiite parties, the competition between coalitions and the problem of armed formations can provoke new clashes. The authorities hope that boycotting individual figures will not undermine the legitimacy of the process, but political apathy remains a serious threat. In the previous 2021 elections, the turnout was only 43%.

In addition to the Shiite splits, Sunni and Kurdish parties play a role. Among the Sunni ones are the Taqaddum party of former Parliament Speaker Mohammed Halbousi and the Azm Alliance. The Kurdish forces are represented by the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP), the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the Popular Front.

Russia is interested in a stable Iraq

The upcoming parliamentary elections, despite the boycott of Muqtada al-Sadr, are unlikely to lead to a surge in violence, according to Iraqi military specialist Safaa al-Assam. According to him, the security forces and law enforcement agencies are ready to ensure order on election day, and the main political factions are interested in following the institutional process and preventing conflicts.

— The split within the Shiite parties and the competition between coalitions remain an exclusively political phenomenon and do not turn into an armed confrontation. Most of the participants in the process demonstrate their willingness to respect the election results and contribute to the formation of a stable government, which creates conditions for calm and safe voting," the expert told Izvestia.

For Russia, the most preferable outcome of the Iraqi elections seems to be the preservation of political stability and predictability in Baghdad. Any serious turbulence could complicate cooperation with Iraq on energy, security, and regional diplomacy issues.

Russian companies Lukoil, Gazprom Neft and Rosneft continue to operate in Iraq, each of which has invested heavily in field development. In February of this year, active discussions began between the Ministry of Oil of Iraq and the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation on the possible participation of Russian companies in the investment and development of the Nasiriyah field. In this sense, it is objectively beneficial for the Russian Federation that the post-election period should not be accompanied by protracted negotiations and factional conflicts, as it already happened after the 2021 vote.

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A symbolic ceremony was held in northeastern Iraq.

From the point of view of bilateral relations, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani remains the most convenient partner for Moscow, building a foreign policy balance and maintaining working contacts with both Iran and the United States and Arab states. His course does not imply a sharp shift in favor of any one center of power, which corresponds to the Russian approach to interaction with Baghdad - through pragmatic, institutional cooperation. For Moscow, it would be preferable for the new ruling coalition to maintain consistency in its relations with external partners and prevent a sharp change in its geopolitical orientation.

An example of such a pragmatic course by al-Sudani is the agreement with the United States on the completion of the mission of the international coalition in Iraq. The schedule and all stages have already been agreed upon. The withdrawal of troops should take place no later than September 2026. At the same time, a transition to a bilateral security partnership between the United States and Iraq is envisaged.

The upcoming elections will be a serious test for Iraq's political system: whether the leaders of the Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish forces will be able to agree on a coalition, avoid an increase in violence and maintain a balanced foreign policy. Against the background of the boycott of al-Sadr, splits within Shiite parties and historically low turnout, the elections risk becoming not only a test of the legitimacy of power, but also a test of the state's resilience to internal conflicts.