Bullet economy: London lifts arms embargo on Baku and Yerevan
The UK lifts the ban on arms supplies to Armenia and Azerbaijan after more than 30 years. A corresponding written statement by Stephen Doughty, Minister for European and North American Affairs, appeared on the British Parliament's website. The document notes that the lifting of restrictions is intended to raise the level of Britain's relations with both countries of the Transcaucasia to a "strategic partnership." What the UK will get from lifting the embargo and how the situation may affect the geopolitical situation in the region is in the Izvestia article.
The UK lifts the arms embargo on the countries of the Caucasus: what is known
London will completely lift the arms embargo on Baku and Yerevan after more than 30 years. According to Stephen Doughty, Minister for European and North American Affairs, the ban, which has been in effect since 1992, has lapsed due to "progress made" in normalizing Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, as well as the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group. "We supported the dissolution of the Minsk Group. Given the progress achieved, we believe that the OSCE embargo of 1992 has lost its relevance. The UK completely lifts the arms embargo on Armenia and Azerbaijan," the document says.
London has decided to raise the level of cooperation with the countries of the Caucasus to a "strategic partnership." Britain took this step as a sign of support for the stabilization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. According to Doughty, the "partnership" between London, Baku and Yerevan will formalize cooperation in the fields of trade, security and defense, and will also be reinforced by annual ministerial meetings to review progress.
Lifting the embargo will allow Armenia and Azerbaijan to support efforts to "protect sovereignty and territorial integrity." However, the document notes that applications for licenses for the sale of weapons will continue to be considered "on a case-by-case basis in accordance with reliable strategic criteria for licensing UK exports." This approach involves checking each transaction individually.
On August 8, after a meeting at the White House, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed a bilateral peace agreement mediated by Washington. First, US President Donald Trump met with the heads of state separately to conclude memoranda of understanding. Then, after speaking to the press, the leaders of the three countries signed a trilateral Joint Declaration.
Reasons for lifting the British embargo
The arms embargo against Baku and Yerevan was imposed in 1992 by the OSCE decision as a measure to regulate the situation in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. According to Doughty, after the conclusion of the peace agreement, the UK ban "lost its relevance." Vasily Egorov, the author of the Westminster Telegram channel and an expert on British politics, shared with Izvestia the opinion that London, of course, plans to expand the production of its own weapons. For the UK, the sales market in the form of the South Caucasus countries is an opportunity to increase GDP and overtake European allies: France and Germany.
— Great Britain, like, in general, the whole of Europe, is trying to increase the production of its weapons. London is doing a little worse than Germany or France, but nevertheless, there are some plans, maybe not for heavy weapons, not for tanks, but for artillery or other types of weapons, of course. After all, the UK plans to spend 2.5% of GDP on defense, and, of course, the arms market is important, the expert believes.
Until recently, Moscow dominated the supply of weapons to Yerevan and Baku. In 2020, Ilham Aliyev, in an interview with the French newspaper Le Figaro, stated that "most of all, we (Azerbaijan. — Izvestia) Turkey and Israel are not supplying. This is Russia." Baku is currently purchasing most of its weapons from West Jerusalem. The Russian-Armenian armament issue was also resolved a few months ago. Moscow has transferred military equipment to Yerevan, thereby resolving a long-standing issue with supply delays. Now Armenia buys weapons from France and India. "This is the choice of our Armenian friends. And if they want to have a French base for additional supplies, please, if in some other country, please, we will not impose anything," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at a press conference with his Armenian counterpart Ararat Mirzoyan on May 21.
The current situation plays into London's hands in implementing a plan to oust Moscow from the arms market in the countries of the Caucasus. According to Vasily Egorov, the money issue plays an important role here. The British embargo has not prevented London from interfering in the politics of Armenia and Azerbaijan since 1992.
— The money issue, in general, is also important. At the same time, the underlying reason is that when there were hostilities in the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s, Britain, like many other European states, imposed an arms embargo on both sides, which, in general, did not interfere, for example, with London should actively invest and work closely with both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Now it is clear that history repeats itself," the expert said.
The machine is in your hands
Military expert Boris Jerelievsky told Izvestia that there is not a huge amount of weapons in British warehouses that the state could freely supply to Armenia and Azerbaijan. The attention of the Transcaucasian countries could probably be attracted by Storm Shadow cruise missiles (SCALP-EG) or modern armored vehicles, but all stocks have already been transferred to Ukraine.
— Storm Shadow might be interesting, but there aren't enough of them in the warehouses. Most of them (the British. — Izvestia) They could have sold it, they have already sold it to Ukraine. And, in principle, they are also expected in Kiev. There are also not many armored vehicles. She's not very good, and, in general, they've already transferred everything they could to Ukraine. They have much more of all kinds of equipment like naval drones, which can be used in the future of a possible confrontation between Baku and Tehran, which Azerbaijan has been trying to push for a long time, but Aliyev is trying to avoid this, so to speak," the expert shared his opinion.
The Storm Shadow Rocket
Boris Jerelievsky is also confident that lifting the embargo is Britain's way of maintaining control over the territories of Transcaucasia. Under the pretext of strengthening military-technical cooperation, London wants to ensure the permanent presence of intelligence officers in Baku and Yerevan. Britain's idea of ousting Russia from the South Caucasus region is linked to the theme of supporting various Eastern European countries, such as Scandinavia, Poland, the Baltic States, and Ukraine. Now London is actually acting as the "advocate" of these states. The military expert also believes that such a move by the UK could lead to new outbreaks of violence.
— I think this is exactly what is important for the British: under the pretext of strengthening military-technical cooperation, to ensure the permanent presence of their own, so to speak, specialists, but in reality, intelligence officers in both Azerbaijan and Armenia. As for Azerbaijan, they have recently (with Great Britain. — Izvestia) A strategic cooperation agreement was signed. In general, there are quite close contacts there, including through the special services of Baku and London. Yerevan was kind of sidelined, but I think they're trying to make up for it now. <...> I think that there is a certain escalation of the situation in the South Caucasus, and the result will be the same: a new outbreak of violence, most likely, the expert states.
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