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Measure the momentum: how the Budapest summit will affect the Ukrainian settlement process
The teams of Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump are preparing for a meeting in Budapest. Moscow hopes that the summit will give an impetus to the settlement of Ukraine, Grigory Karasin, Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, told Izvestia. In parallel, contacts between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio are being coordinated. At the same time, the topics of the supply of tomahawks to Kiev and new sanctions against Moscow seem to be frozen until negotiations. Hungary guarantees the safety of Vladimir Putin's arrival, which the Western media has already been quick to call an embarrassing sight for the EU and NATO. At the same time, experts expect attempts by the Europeans to interfere in the summit's agenda. Read the Izvestia article about why Budapest was chosen as the venue and why the summit was a political blow to the European Union.
Momentum for negotiations on Ukraine
Budapest is preparing to host Russian President Vladimir Putin and the head of the White House, Donald Trump. The leaders will discuss the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. The Kremlin says the meeting could take place "within two weeks," that is, before October 30. The US leader, speaking about the prospects of the meeting, stressed that he had been making deals "all his life," so he hopes to complete this one soon.
Russia will strive to ensure that the meeting gives a serious impetus to the settlement of the crisis in Ukraine, Grigory Karasin, chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, told Izvestia.
— We will naturally strive to ensure that he gives a serious impetus to the settlement of the crisis in Ukraine. Accordingly, he (the summit. — Izvestia) It will also contribute to the fact that our cooperation with the United States on international issues, and I hope on bilateral issues too, in terms of economy, cultural exchange, and so on, will also improve and get better," he said.
The parliamentarian added that the entire mechanism of the Russian state is working for these purposes, and Moscow wants to move forward on these issues. At the same time, Europe is actively hindering the process.
— Europe is in a state of some kind of political schizophrenia. She always sets some conditions. She prevents her wards, the so—called Ukrainian leaders, from acting. And they (the Ukrainian leaders. — Izvestia), as you know, do not belong to themselves, — Grigory Karasin added.
At the same time, Ukraine is not the only thing that can be discussed in Budapest, said Konstantin Sukhoverov, program manager of the RIAC. The parties are likely to discuss what has already been discussed during the year by the US State Department and the Russian Foreign Ministry.
— The parties can discuss the resumption of full-fledged functioning of embassies, that is, to increase the staff again. Direct flights may also be affected once again, because this is a business component that is important for the Trump administration," the expert said.
Sukhoverov added that the issue of START III could also be raised at the meeting. This is an agreement between the United States and the Russian Federation on measures to further reduce and limit strategic offensive arms. It officially expires on February 5, 2026, but in September, Vladimir Putin suggested that the United States voluntarily continue to comply with the quantitative limits of START III for another year after its expiration. Donald Trump has publicly called the idea a good one, but things have not moved further than talking.
The plans to hold the summit were preceded by a telephone conversation between the leaders of the Russian Federation and the United States, which took place on October 16. Following the meeting, the White House said that "significant progress" had been made in the negotiations.
This happened on the eve of the visit of the President of Ukraine to the White House, during which the possible transfer of Tomahawk cruise missiles to Kiev was discussed. As a result, Trump publicly stated that he expects a peaceful settlement and prefers to do without the transfer of missiles. A number of Western media sources described the meeting with Zelensky as "difficult" and "emotional."
So, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration has increased pressure on Ukraine in preparation for the summit. According to them, the White House is also cautious about the idea of strengthening sanctions against Moscow.
Why was Budapest chosen?
At the same time, the choice of Budapest is not accidental, Vadim Kozyulin, head of the IAMP of the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, noted in a conversation with Izvestia. According to him, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is close to both sides. On the one hand, he is firm in his clearly pro—Russian beliefs, on the other, he is close to Trump.
— Trump appreciates him very much, speaks well of him. I think Budapest was chosen because of the personality of Orban, who is interested in about the same thing as us, so that the conflict can be ended as soon as possible," the expert said.
At the same time, Orban himself stated that such a meeting could only be held in the Hungarian capital. He also stressed that the Putin—Trump summit is a chance for "peace for Europe."
Contacts between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio are also expected to take place in the coming days. This is primarily necessary for the approval of the protocol on the Budapest meeting. The parties should determine the format of the delegations, routes, security rules and the legal aspect of the visit.
At the same time, for the European Union, the upcoming summit highlights the discord in the overall policy on Ukraine. So, Reuters already writes that Vladimir Putin's arrival will embarrass the EU and NATO.
Europe may try to disrupt the negotiations
The Budapest meeting is a political blow to Europe, but it is used to slaps in the face, Vadim Kozyulin noted.
— When Trump declares: "Let's fight, and I'll do business," no one objects. EU leaders say, "Okay, we will pay." They swallowed it. So this is not the saddest thing that Europe gets," the expert pointed out.
Meanwhile, the Europeans are already trying to interfere in the process. According to Bloomberg, the EU may send Finnish President Alexander Stubb to Budapest, as he has a channel of communication with Trump. He has already been in contact with the White House since the August summit between Moscow and Washington.
Indeed, Europe has many options for intervention, Dmitry Solonnikov, director of the Institute of Modern State Development, noted in an interview with Izvestia.
— No one removes the possibility of organizing provocations from the agenda. Europe has been playing this game for years, decades, and centuries," he suggested.
Attempts to influence Trump before the start of the summit should not be ruled out, Solonnikov added.
"It is unlikely that Europe is going to give up and let the situation with contacts between Russia and the United States take its course," the expert added.
So, the 19th package of sanctions against the Russian Federation is still being discussed by the heads of EU countries. The Europeans are classically betting on escalation: for example, Swedish Defense Minister Paul Jonson in an interview has already called on Europe to go into "war mode."
— In order to preserve this peace, we must be prepared for a possible war, both morally and militarily. A change of mentality is needed: we must go into war mode in order to resolutely deter, protect and maintain peace," the Swedish minister said.
Thus, the Budapest summit will not only be a test of relations between Moscow and Washington, but also a real challenge for Europe. EU leaders will have to decide on the sidelines what is more important to them — a united line on Ukraine or a chance to reduce the risks of a major war. Well, based on what the direct participants in the negotiations in the Hungarian capital agree on, it will soon be clear whether Budapest has become a step towards ending the conflict.
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