A game of attrition: Europe prepares Ukraine for the continuation of the conflict
Russia has no doubt about the interest of the EU and NATO in continuing the conflict in Ukraine, Vladislav Maslennikov, director of the Department of European Affairs at the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia. At a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels on October 15, Kiev requested new assistance from the West. And Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said that European countries should be ready to support Ukraine for another three years. Experts believe that Kiev will be able to ensure the combat capability of its troops only by expanding forced mobilization and in the event of a sharp increase in the production of weapons by the European military-industrial complex.
Europe is preparing Ukraine for a protracted conflict
On October 15, a meeting of NATO defense ministers was held in the EU capital. At the meeting, Pentagon Chief Pete Hegseth called on his European allies to increase arms purchases for Ukraine under the PURL special program, which involves purchases of American weapons by European allies for Kiev. According to Ukrainian Defense Minister Denis Shmygal, Kiev expects to receive $12-20 billion worth of American weapons in 2026 alone. Earlier, he estimated the country's total defense spending in 2026 at $120 billion, of which $60 billion should be covered by partners.
— There is no doubt about the deep interest of the EU in the continuation of the Ukrainian conflict and the intention of the "EES" to further advance along the path of its escalation. By the way, the same can be said about NATO, including following the meeting of the defense ministers of the alliance's member countries on October 15 in Brussels," the director of the Department of European Affairs told Izvestia The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Vladislav Maslennikov.
The EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Kaya Kallas, recently announced the preparation of a €2 billion aid package for the production of drones. The EU is promoting the so—called reparation loan, a large loan for Ukraine of about 140 billion euros. The interest on it is supposed to be paid from the proceeds from the frozen Russian assets in Europe. The "body" of the debt itself is planned to be covered later by some "reparations" from Moscow.
— As for the EU's resources, they are disappearing into the Ukrainian black hole, and, as European bureaucrats usually put it, "faster than expected." Hence the EU's insatiable desire to confiscate frozen Russian assets under any pretext. To be more precise, steal it," Maslennikov said.
Simultaneously with the NATO meeting, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced an aid package for Kiev worth more than €2 billion. Estonia, Finland, Lithuania and Sweden have promised to join the purchase. In the context of the Brussels meeting, the words sounded like a call to act for others.
Massive anti-Russian treatment of the population is currently underway in Europe, Yulia Zhdanova, head of the Russian delegation to the Vienna talks on military security and arms control, told Izvestia.
— In fact, people are being prepared for the fact that sooner or later Europe will plunge into armed confrontation. There is an indoctrination that the Russian threat is inevitable," she added.
According to her, this strategy towards the Russian Federation can be seen in the doctrinal and strategic documents of the EU and NATO states.
Will Ukraine be able to continue fighting
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said in London a day before the meeting of NATO ministers in Brussels that Ukraine is preparing to fight for another three years. And he added that Europe should help Kiev in this. At the same time, as Business Insider reported, Warsaw did not join the PURL mechanism for the purchase of weapons to Kiev.
While maintaining the current management model and tightening domestic policy, Ukraine will be able to maintain a certain combat capability of its forces for some time, Igor Korotchenko, editor-in-chief of the National Defense magazine, military analyst, said in a conversation with Izvestia. Kiev has the ability to forcibly mobilize citizens for their subsequent deployment to the war zone.
— If we're talking about other factors, it's Western military aid. Poland is actively trying to play one of the key roles in the European Union today and expects Ukraine to hold out for another three years, because the EU's program goal is to switch to military action by 2030 and be ready for war with Russia," the expert said.
The idea of the West is that the prolongation of the conflict, along with measures of economic influence on Russia, should force Moscow to accept unfavorable peace terms, Korotchenko stressed.
It is worth noting that Ukraine is already experiencing problems with personnel. Since 2022, according to Ukrainian media, 203,000 cases of unauthorized abandonment have been opened. Moreover, 110 thousand of them were in seven months of 2025. For comparison: in 2022, this figure was 7 thousand cases, in 2023 - 17.6 thousand, and in 2024 — 67.8 thousand. According to the OSW profile center in Warsaw, due to a shortage of people in January 2025, Ukraine stopped the formation of new brigades, and in some formations the staffing reached only 30%.
The Economist reported in February that mobilization within the country is not able to solve the problem of "holes" at the front, and the Ukrainian army has personnel problems. According to field reports by the Ukrainian media, by September of this year, the "infantry shortage crisis" in Ukraine had only deepened.
Western military supplies to Ukraine
On October 14, the Kiel Institute released a report stating that in the summer of 2025, primarily in July and August, there was a sharp drop in Western military aid to Ukraine. This can be attributed to the active negotiation process between Moscow and Washington. There was no increase in supplies, even despite the launch of the PURL mechanism.
With decreasing US support, Europe has to take on more responsibility, Vadim Koroshchupov, a junior researcher at IMEMO RAS, noted in a conversation with Izvestia. Since 2022, it has come a long way to increase the capabilities of its military-industrial complex (MIC), the expert believes.
Due to the opening of new factories, the Europeans managed to increase the production of large-caliber ammunition from 200-300 thousand to 2 million per year, Koroshchupov said. German Rheinmetall, together with Lockheed Martin, has begun to create a European analogue of the high—precision MLRS HIMARS - GMARS.
The issue of supplying American Tomahawk cruise missiles remains open. On October 17, Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky is due to arrive in the United States for talks with the head of the White House, Donald Trump, on this issue.
"It is impossible to use Tomahawk without the direct participation of American military personnel, and any supply of such missiles to Ukraine would mean a qualitatively new stage of escalation," Vladimir Putin said earlier.
Talks about the supply of this type of weapons are more rhetoric for the domestic voter in the United States, Koroshchupov believes. Although the expert did not completely rule out the possibility of supplying them to Kiev and noted that the Tomahawk is a pretty serious weapon because of its range. However, the Russian Foreign Ministry had previously talked about the possibility of dealing with this type of weapon.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
