Continuing investigation: Russia is ready for dialogue with Moldova after the elections

Russia expects Chisinau to normalize relations with Moscow after the parliamentary elections. This was stated to Izvestia by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin. The results showed that the majority of citizens living directly in Moldova do not support the course of destroying relations with the Russian Federation, the diplomat noted. Moscow has previously stated that it is ready to restore trade with Chisinau. However, the expert community notes that so far the republic's authorities are proceeding from political, not economic considerations, in their dialogue with the Russian Federation. The unresolved Transnistrian conflict is a serious obstacle to the normalization of relations. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasizes that they do not observe any progress in the process of its resolution.

Development of relations between Moscow and Chisinau

Following the results of the parliamentary elections in Moldova on September 28, President Maia Sandu's Action and Solidarity party (PDS) received 50.2%, while the opposition forces collectively received 49.8%. Almost half of the votes went to the Patriotic Electoral Bloc, one of whose leaders— former Moldovan President Igor Dodon— advocates rapprochement with the Russian Federation. Russia hopes that Chisinau will decide to normalize relations with Moscow after the elections.

—We expect that the Moldovan authorities will take a responsible approach to the fact that the majority of the population of Moldova has not accepted their course as a whole, including the policy of destroying relations with Russia," Mikhail Galuzin, Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia.

Before counting the results in foreign polling stations, the PDU was losing to the opposition. The Moldovan diaspora living in the West gave the ruling party almost 30% of the vote. In a number of regions, the result of the PDS turned out to be modest, and in the Gagauz Autonomy it was generally a failure — just over 3%. It is interesting that after the elections, the Secretary General of the Moldovan government, Artur Mizha, who oversaw the interaction of the Cabinet of Ministers with local authorities, including Gagauzia, resigned.

"We expect that the right conclusions will be drawn in favor of restoring, normalizing, and developing good—neighborly relations, rather than going nowhere, that is, breaking with Russia, reckless rapprochement with the European Union and NATO, and turning the country into a logistical hub to support the Kiev regime," Mikhail Galuzin said.

Russia has previously stated its readiness to establish relations with Moldova (in particular, trade relations) after the elections. At the same time, Moscow could not turn a blind eye to the fraud at the time of the elections. The most striking of these was the closure of six of the seven bridges across the Dniester River under the pretext of repairs. They were unblocked immediately after voting. In addition, only eight and two polling stations were organized for Moldovans living in Transnistria and Russia, respectively — several times less than, for example, in the EU countries. In addition, on the eve of the elections, the CEC removed several opposition parties from the ballot. The Patriotic Bloc has filed 45 complaints to the Central Election Commission about violations during the elections.

— The Moldovan authorities have long organized a campaign of persecution against the Russian-language media and political parties advocating the normalization and development of relations with Russia. All this was once again manifested during the preparation and holding of parliamentary elections in Moldova, when parties and politicians objectionable to the regime were excluded from the opportunity to participate in them, and voting was obstructed, in particular for Moldovan citizens living in Transnistria," Mikhail Galuzin noted.

Rough calculations: the opposition called for mass protests after the elections in Moldova

How did the ruling party secure 50.2% of the vote, and will this affect the current non-aligned status of the country

Relations between Russia and Moldova began to deteriorate sharply after Maia Sandu came to power, setting a course for rapprochement with NATO and the European Union. Nevertheless, the republic remains a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States and it would be useful for Chisinau to increase trade with the Russian Federation, said Vladimir Zharikhin, deputy director of the CIS Institute.

— It is profitable for Moldova to trade with Russia: buy cheap gas and sell your agricultural products. But she doesn't want to do it for political reasons. This severely restricts trade," he told Izvestia.

Oleg Ozerov, the Russian Ambassador to Chisinau, previously noted that high-quality Moldovan products are still remembered and appreciated in Russia, therefore, there are still opportunities for restoring lost positions in traditional commodity items.

"The prospects for more active Russian-Moldovan economic cooperation depend on Chisinau's willingness to pursue a balanced and pragmatic policy in the interests of its own business. In a sense, the election results will be an indicator of the existence of such a vector," the diplomat said a few days before the vote.

At the same time, over the past 15 years, Moldova has dramatically reoriented trade relations. In 2009, more than 70% of the trade turnover was in the CIS countries, but now it is in the West and mainly in the EU.

The unresolved problem of Transnistria

The unresolved Transnistrian conflict, frozen in the 1990s, also hinders the normalization of the dialogue between Moscow and Chisinau. The dividing security zone along the Dniester River is still guarded by Russian peacekeepers who entered the war zone in 1992. This was done in accordance with the agreement on the principles of peaceful settlement of the armed conflict in the Transnistrian region of Moldova. The signatures were put by the presidents of the Russian Federation and Moldova in the presence of the leader of Transnistria.

In 2002, the 5+2 format was created for the Transnistrian settlement, which includes Moldova, Transnistria, the OSCE, Russia, Ukraine, the EU and the United States. Since 2019, it has actually ceased to function. The Information and Press Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry states: unfortunately, Chisinau prefers methods of financial and economic pressure on Transnistria to dialogue with Tiraspol.

— The emphasis is on the forced integration of the left bank into the process of Moldova's European integration. At the same time, the work of the 5+2 negotiation format is being blocked under far-fetched pretexts. It is also alarming that, despite assurances of commitment to peaceful methods of resolving the Transnistrian issue, there are talks about the possibility of its forceful solution with the participation of the Kiev regime, the ministry told Izvestia.

It was very revealing how the Moldovan authorities organized voting in the parliamentary elections for the residents of Transnistria.

— It was clearly aimed at deepening the demarcation between the banks of the Dniester. Therefore, there are no positive developments from the elections held in Moldova for the settlement process," the Foreign Ministry said.

Borderline state: "Action and Solidarity" won over half of the votes

Maia Sandu's ruling party will lose ten seats in parliament.

The peacekeeping contingent includes 402 Russian military personnel, 492 Transnistrian and 355 Moldovan. The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service has repeatedly reported that Chisinau is considering the possibility of a military scenario. On October 1, Maia Sandu announced the need to find a solution for the withdrawal of Russian military personnel from the territory of Transnistria. They have been in the region as part of the joint peacekeeping forces for more than 30 years and provide the main condition for a settlement — they maintain peace and tranquility, the Russian Foreign Ministry stressed.

"As before, we are in favor of normalizing contacts between Chisinau and Tiraspol, respecting previously reached agreements, and resuming the rhythmic work of established multilateral formats," the Russian Foreign Ministry said.

Vladimir Bruter, an expert at the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies, believes that Western countries will push Chisinau to increase pressure on Tiraspol.

— The collective West will push until a certain point, but it will not touch. However, if the West sees that we cannot protect Transnistria, it will be blown to pieces," the expert believes. He does not rule out a scenario in which Kiev, at the request of Chisinau, will send its troops into the unrecognized republic.

In late September, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service reported that NATO units were concentrating in Romania near the Moldovan border. The pretext for their use may be the Russian response to armed provocations against Transnistria and the forces stationed there on the eve of the elections to the Supreme Council of the PMR on November 30.

Romanian President Nicusor Dan allowed the possibility of Transnistria joining Moldova on the rights of "relative autonomy" upon the country's further accession to the EU.