Rough calculations: the opposition called for mass protests after the elections in Moldova

Maia Sandu's Action and Solidarity party won a majority following the results of the parliamentary elections in Moldova — according to the CEC, it scored 50.2%. The opposition, including the Patriotic Bloc, received 49.8% of the vote. Many violations were recorded during the elections, including ballot stuffing, "carousels" of voters, and false mining of polling stations, observers report. The opposition refuses to recognize the legitimacy of the PDP's victory due to the low turnout. Opponents of the government are calling on citizens to come out to mass protests. Chisinau intends to continue its pro-European course, plunging the country into crisis, in addition, the republic risks becoming a foothold for NATO, experts warn. What awaits the country in the next four years is in the Izvestia article.

Results of the parliamentary elections in Moldova

Moldova summed up the results of the parliamentary elections, the results of which depended on whether the country would continue its course towards rapprochement with the European Union and escalation in relations with Moscow. After processing 100% of the protocols, the CEC reported that Maia Sandu's Action and Solidarity party (PDS) won 50.2% of the vote.

Moreover, the voices of those living abroad have become crucial. Thus, according to the results from polling stations in Moldova itself, the PDU has only 44.13%, but abroad — 78.61%. In the polling stations opened in Russia, the opposition "Patriotic Bloc" won — 67.44% voted for it. In the general count, this closest competitor of the ruling party, which advocates the development of relations with Russia, took second place with 24.18% of the vote. In third place is the "Alternative" (7.96%). The oppositionists "Our Party" (6.2%) and "Democracy at Home" (5.62%) also entered parliament.Thus, Sandu's party won at the expense of the opinion of citizens living in Europe, and not in their own country — just like she did in the presidential elections in 2021.

According to the current results, the PYD can get 55 out of 101 seats in parliament, the Patriotic Bloc — 26, Alternative - 8, Our Party and Democracy at Home - 6 seats each. For comparison, in the previous convocation, the ruling party had 62 seats. The party in power can gain such a preponderance by redistributing the votes of competitors who did not get into parliament.

Next, the President of Moldova will choose the prime minister. As a rule, this is a representative of the ruling party or bloc.

— The Action and Solidarity Party managed to retain its majority, although it lost some of its mandates, and public fatigue from its confrontation with the Patriotic Bloc opened the way for new forces — the Alternative bloc and the unionists (Democracy at Home — Ed.). This increased political pluralism, but at the same time increased the risk of fragmentation," Artyom Purchun, an employee of the Faculty of World Economy and World Politics at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, told Izvestia.

Opponents have already accused the PDU of falsifying the voting results. On the videos that appeared on the network, there is evidence of stuffing, as well as footage of burning ballots with votes for the opposition. Violations were also recorded abroad. In particular, in Italy, the same group of voters appeared at different polling stations, and the ballot boxes were often filled even before the voting opened. Similar cases have also been reported from France, Germany, the Czech Republic and Romania. There is also information about the purchase of votes in favor of the PDP candidates — 50 euros per ballot and 20 euros for each submitted voter.

It also got to the point that many voters simply could not physically get to the polling stations. For example, on the day of the vote, the bridge leading to Transnistria was blocked. In the PMR itself, some sites were installed away from the place of people's residence, some were completely closed allegedly because of the threat of mining.

— We do not recognize rigged elections. We are protesting peacefully! — the head of the Party of Socialists (part of the Patriotic Bloc) said at a protest on September 28 Igor Dodon, commenting on the preliminary voting results that appeared at that time. The ex-president of Moldova claims that the ruling party, in fact, lost the election.

Dodon also called on opposition parties to come out for a peaceful protest on September 29. However, it is worth noting that there is no unity among the opposition. In particular, the Alternative's political platform does not have a clear structure, a single idea, or even specific slogans, and in the past the party has not expressed any desire to join an opposition coalition.

As proof of the illegitimacy of the Sandu party's victory, they also cite the low turnout in the elections — just over 50%. The authorities "used technologies and tactics of intimidation, discord, and hate speech techniques," says Vlad Batrincea, deputy speaker of the Moldovan parliament.

— This is a defeat for Sandu and the ruling party, because, given the low turnout, less than a quarter of voters actually supported the PYD inside the country. There are very big problems with legitimacy, but this is the least of the concerns of the authorities. A formal victory and the opportunity to poke their opponents in the nose are enough for them. The falsifications were on an absolutely unimaginable scale, and an administrative resource was used for this. In a situation with limited, truncated legitimacy, there is only one way — it is to further slide into a dictatorship, where the opinion of the population and alternative points of view will not have the right to exist," says Natalia Kharitonova, professor at the RANEPA under the President of the Russian Federation, chief researcher at the Russian State University of Economics.

As the ratings dropped, the PYD already resorted to authoritarian methods of pressure in the form of open persecution of the opposition. The arrest of the head of Gagauzia, Yevgeny Gutsul, caused the greatest resonance. She was sentenced to seven years in prison.

The Kremlin, in turn, noted that they are ready to assess the elections after political forces that disagree with the results clearly indicate their position on them.

— From what we see and know, hundreds of thousands of Moldovans were deprived of the opportunity to vote on the territory of the Russian Federation due to the fact that only two polling stations were open for them, which, of course, was not enough and could not, in fact, give everyone the opportunity to vote. This is something that can be stated," said Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation.

The situation in Moldova after the elections

In the current situation, Moldova is unlikely to face powerful protests, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. Simply because any disagreement will be immediately suppressed by the security forces. On the eve of the vote, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service reported that in the event of protests against the authorities, NATO could send its troops into the republic to preserve the positions of the Sandu party. In this case, the alliance is interested not so much in the CDP as in the strategic position of the country in the context of the Ukrainian conflict.

— Based on the logic of wartime, democracy was thrown aside. There should be people in power in countries that are important for Ukraine's supply (Moldova and Romania) who will not interfere with this supply," says Vadim Trukhachev, Candidate of Historical Sciences.

In the current configuration, the parliament will continue its course towards rapprochement with the EU and NATO, says Vladimir Bruter, an expert at the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies.

— They will continue their Russophobic course and approach the West as much as possible. The West will be in full control of the situation. The discrediting and possibly even the liquidation of the de facto autonomous Gagauzia will continue. Economic pressure on Transnistria will continue, which may turn into a military scenario under certain circumstances. The West has acquired a tool to continue putting pressure on Russia," says Bruter.

Meanwhile, Moldova is already expected to join the EU, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on September 29. In her social media post, she noted that the doors of the association are open to Chisinau. And the head of the European Council, Antonio Costa, said that despite the alleged pressure and interference from Russia, the Moldovan people had made a choice in favor of a European future.

— The election results can be interpreted as a partial victory of the PDU and the EU, demonstrating the consolidation of the pro—European course while maintaining internal instability, - says Artem Purchun.

And Vadim Trukhachev did not rule out that the election result obtained through stuffing could be used to amend the Constitution of Moldova, which excluded from this document the mention of the non-aligned status of the country.

— This will make it possible to join NATO. In addition, the Moldovan parliament may appeal to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine with a request to give the go-ahead to the AFU operations against Transnistria. Ukraine, with the go—ahead from the EU and NATO, may start hostilities in the PMR," Trukhachev believes.

The SVR of Russia reported on the potential cancellation of Moldova's non-aligned status back in July. According to the ministry, NATO is actively preparing to involve Chisinau in an armed conflict with the Russian Federation, transforming the republic into "the alliance's forward foothold on the eastern flank, taking into account the advance of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine."

To this end, according to the SVR, projects are being implemented to switch to the European railway gauge and increase the capacity of bridges, logistics hubs, large warehouses and sites for the concentration of military equipment are being built. In addition, the airfields of Marculesti and Balti are being upgraded with an eye to receiving a significant number of combat and military transport aircraft.