- Статьи
- Economy
- Income source: raising the minimum wage will lead to an increase in salaries of almost 5 million Russians
Income source: raising the minimum wage will lead to an increase in salaries of almost 5 million Russians
In 2026, the minimum wage will increase by 20% and amount to 27 thousand rubles, which will increase the salaries of 4.5 million Russians, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said at a government meeting. At the meeting, the ministers discussed the draft new budget, the main priority of which was social policy: more than 10 trillion rubles have been allocated for the support of families with children in three years alone. Another key task is to ensure defense. To finance these goals, the authorities decided to change the tax system. Such a measure will create conditions for reducing inflation and accelerating the economy, experts believe. An alternative would be to cover the shortfall by increasing public debt, but such actions at high rates would mean higher maintenance costs and crowding out private investment and, as a result, weakening GDP. For what other purposes will budget funds be allocated and whether it is worth fearing its deficit, see the Izvestia article.
How will the salaries of Russians grow
The government has approved the draft federal budget for the next three years, the press service of the Cabinet of Ministers reported. The document provides for revenues of 40.3 trillion rubles in 2026, 42.9 trillion in 2027 and 45 trillion in 2028. The costs are set at 44.1 trillion, 46 trillion and 49.4 trillion rubles, respectively, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said at a government meeting on September 24. Thus, the deficit will amount to 1.6% of GDP (3.8 trillion), 1.2% (3.1 trillion) and 1.3% (4.4 trillion).
Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Anton Siluanov during a meeting of the Government of the Russian Federation
The key priorities will be fulfilling social obligations to citizens, financing defense and security, supporting the families of ITS participants, as well as achieving the national development goals outlined by the President of the Russian Federation until 2030, the minister stressed.
— The prepared draft federal budget for 2026 and the planned period are balanced and sustainable. This is important for maintaining macroeconomic stability, growth of real wages and incomes of the population," the head of the department noted.
The issues of income growth of citizens are constantly in the government's focus, said Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. According to him, in 2026 the minimum wage will increase by 20% and exceed 27 thousand rubles. This measure will increase the salaries of 4.5 million people, he added. In addition, the minimum wage is used to calculate vacation, sick leave, and other social benefits.
The budget is based on the socio-economic forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development. The head of the department, Maxim Reshetnikov, noted at a cabinet meeting that in the next three years, real salaries of citizens will increase by about 10%, and real incomes by more than 9%.
What will the budget expenses be used for?
Social policy is the first priority of the budget, Anton Siluanov added. According to him, special attention is paid to measures to support demography. In particular, the "children's budget" will exceed 10 trillion for three years. It provides for the payment of a single allowance to parents, the extension of the maternity capital program with annual inflation indexation, as well as the ability to use the remaining funds without specifying the goals. More than 2 trillion rubles will also be allocated to improve the living conditions of families with children.: These are subsidized interest rates on family mortgages and one-time payments of 450 thousand to large families to repay the debt.
Social support for citizens is also included in the budget of the Pension and Social Insurance Fund. Its main tasks are related to the support of pensioners, people with disabilities, veterans and families with children, Mikhail Mishustin noted. According to him, in 2026-2028, about 60 trillion rubles will be allocated from the fund for obligations to citizens, more than half of which will go to pensions.
Significant resources have been allocated to healthcare, in particular, over 1 trillion over three years. A significant part of the funds will be spent on medicines, assistance to children with rare serious diseases and programs to combat cardiovascular pathologies, Anton Siluanov noted.
Together with the draft budget, the financial plan of the Compulsory Medical Insurance Fund has also been prepared, Mikhail Mishustin shared. It guarantees free care in the healthcare system, including initial admission, prevention, medical examination, ambulance call, etc. In total, more than 14.5 trillion rubles are provided for these purposes in 2026-2028.
In addition, the funds provided for in the federal budget will provide the army with the necessary weapons and equipment, payments to military personnel, support for their families, as well as the modernization of enterprises of the military-industrial complex, Anton Siluanov said.
"The funds will be used to combat drones, strengthen the security of transport infrastructure in border and new regions,— the Finance Minister stressed.
Another key priority will be to ensure technological leadership and infrastructure development. About $1.9 trillion has been allocated for the implementation of relevant national projects in the next three years.
The regions will receive budget loans for infrastructure development. A total of 1 trillion is planned to be allocated for these purposes from 2025 to 2030.
Tax policy review
Financing defense and security is a strategic priority, the Finance Minister stressed. For these purposes, it is proposed to increase the base rate of value added tax (VAT) from 20% to 22%. At the same time, the 10% discount will remain for socially important goods: food, medicines, medical products and children's items.
It is also planned to reduce the income threshold for companies under the simplified taxation system by six times, after exceeding which the obligation to pay VAT arises: from 60 million to 10 million rubles. According to Anton Siluanov, the measure is aimed against business fragmentation schemes to minimize taxes.
The changes will also affect the betting business. Gambling tax is introduced for offices in the amount of 5% of the amount of accepted bets, as well as a 25% profit tax.
In addition, the authorities plan to cancel the benefits of insurance premiums for small and medium-sized businesses. Uniform tariffs will be set for a number of areas, including trade, construction and mining: 30% up to the maximum base and 15% above it.
At the same time, the preferential tariff of 15% will remain in place for the priority sectors of SMEs — manufacturing, manufacturing, transport and electronics.
How will the innovations affect the economy
Tax measures aimed at balancing the budget will ensure compliance with the budget rule, which will create conditions for slowing inflation, maintaining macroeconomic stability and gradually easing monetary policy, Maxim Reshetnikov noted. According to him, this will ultimately support economic growth. An alternative to tax measures would be to increase the budget deficit, which would require a longer period of tight monetary conditions and would lead to a slowdown in GDP, the minister added.
— Increasing the tax burden should be considered as a measure aimed at adjusting fiscal policy in the new economic realities. The growth of defense spending, social obligations and infrastructure projects requires an increase in budget revenues," said Evgenia Memruk, head of the Union of Accountants and Tax Consultants, founder of Biznesinalogi.
At the same time, the abolition of the insurance premium benefit for SMEs is not so much a new increase as a return to the docked norm, she added. This relaxation was introduced during the pandemic as an incentive to legalize salaries. Now that her task has been largely completed, they have decided to return to the standard 30%, which have been in effect for many years, the expert recalled. According to her, it is important that a regressive scale is maintained — if the limit is exceeded, the rate is reduced to 15%. In addition, for sole proprietors and companies on the Income tax system, it remains possible to reduce the tax on the amount of contributions to the Social Fund.
— Tax amendments are aimed at balancing the budget. Additional revenues reduce dependence on borrowing and help keep inflation under control. An increase in VAT may give a short-term price boost, but in general, budget consolidation reduces pro—inflationary risks and creates conditions for easing monetary policy in the future," believes Alexey Kuzmin, Chairman of the Management Board of National Savings Bank JSC.
According to the expert, without new sources of income, the deficit would have to be covered by the growth of the national debt. Despite the fact that its level in Russia remains relatively low — about 16-20% of GDP, accelerated borrowing at high rates would mean higher maintenance costs and crowding out private investment. In the long run, this would weaken economic growth. Therefore, the chosen course of combining tax measures and fiscal consolidation looks more balanced.
— Now we need to cover the deficit. All over the world, this is done in three ways: by raising taxes, printing money, or dramatically increasing labor productivity. In our case, the first option is preferable. If we resort to issuing bonds, inflation will immediately accelerate and the Central Bank will raise the key rate again. VAT is the most easily collected tax, it is simple to administer. But there are also risks: the profits of enterprises may decrease, which, in turn, will try to compensate for their losses at the expense of consumers," says Georgy Ostapkovich, director of the HSE Center for Market Research.
Is budget deficit dangerous
The VAT increase next year may provide the budget with an additional 600-650 billion rubles, Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, estimated.
At the same time, the projected deficit of 1.6% of GDP is not critical, experts noted. Firstly, it will be lower than the expected figure of 2025 (1.7% of GDP), and secondly, it is noticeably less than in most countries.
— So, in the USA, the deficit is about 6.4% of GDP, in France — 5.8%, in the UK — 5.3%, in India — 5%, in China a record 4% is expected in 2026. Even Kazakhstan (2.6%) and Georgia (3.5%) have a higher level than Russia. Our indicator is comparable with Japan (1.4%) and Germany with Italy (1.3%), — Natalia Milchakova specified.
She added that in some countries the deficit is relatively low only due to large-scale borrowing. For example, Italy and Portugal have one of the highest public debts in Europe (about 135% and 95%, respectively), although the budget deficit is about 1% of GDP. In Russia, the national debt is about 17% of GDP.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
