Close-up: the new budget will include almost 2 trillion for family mortgages
The Ministry of Finance has submitted to the government a draft budget for the next three years. The priorities are social security, family support, defense and security. About $10 trillion is provided for helping parents alone, of which almost $2 trillion will be used for family mortgages. In addition, the regions will receive 150 billion rubles of budget loans annually. At the same time, the authorities are looking for sources of income to cover the deficit and finance defense. It is planned to increase VAT to 22%, cancel benefits on insurance premiums for some SMEs, lower the threshold for simplified VAT to 10 million rubles, and introduce new taxes for bookmakers. Additional revenues should help balance the budget, but the growing tax burden creates risks for investments and inflation. How much the treasury can receive from innovations and what else the funds will be used for is in the Izvestia material.
How will the authorities help families with children in 2026
The key priorities of the financial plan for 2026-2028 are the fulfillment of social obligations to citizens, ensuring the needs of defense and security, supporting the families of ITS participants, as well as achieving national goals by 2030, defined by the President. More than 41 trillion rubles have been allocated for national projects over the next six years, almost 2.6 times more than in the previous period, according to the agency's materials, which were reviewed by Izvestia.
"The prepared draft federal budget for 2026 and the planning period for 2027 and 2028 is balanced and sustainable. This is important for maintaining macroeconomic stability. In addition, the budget preserves the conditions for the growth of real wages and incomes of the population," the ministry stressed.
One of the key areas of the financial plan will be to support demographics. The "children's budget" will exceed 10 trillion rubles in three years, according to the documents of the Ministry of Finance. In particular, more than 2 trillion is provided for housing improvement programs. About 1.8 trillion rubles will be allocated for family mortgages, and over 300 billion for one—time payments to large families (450 thousand at the birth of the third and subsequent children) to partially repay the debt for the apartment.
The changes will also affect this year's budget. In particular, the authorities will additionally allocate over 230 billion for mortgage programs — family, preferential and Far Eastern. Expenses will increase due to the expansion of loan terms.
In addition, more than 1.8 trillion rubles will be allocated for maternity capital by 2030. This amount will include the indexation of payments to the inflation rate, as well as the opportunity for parents to use the remaining funds without specifying the purpose.
At the same time, starting next year, low—income citizens with two or more children will be provided with an annual family payment in the form of a refund of part of the personal income tax paid, which will reduce the tax rate to 6%, the Finance Ministry recalled.
Special attention is paid in the budget to pediatric medicine — within the framework of the national project "Family" over 94 billion rubles will be allocated for the renovation of perinatal centers, hospitals and maternity hospitals.
In total, over 1 trillion rubles will be allocated for healthcare in the next six years. A significant part of the funds will be allocated to medicines, assistance to children with rare serious diseases and programs on cardiovascular diseases.
A significant share of expenses is provided for education. Thus, almost 110 billion rubles will be allocated for the construction of 150 schools by 2030. More than 290 billion more will be allocated for major repairs over the next three years. An additional 51 billion will be spent on the renovation of kindergartens and 27 billion on the construction of new ones, according to the documents of the Ministry of Finance.
Secondary vocational education will also receive support: over 60 billion rubles will be allocated for the repair of technical schools in three years. A separate block of expenses is related to the creation of world—class university campuses - almost 170 billion has been allocated for 2026-2028. It is planned that by 2030 there will be 25 such institutions, and by 2036 — at least 40.
By the end of the decade, the renovation of student dormitories will continue — about 800 buildings will be overhauled. More than 70 billion rubles have been allocated for these purposes over the next three years.
How will the technologies and infrastructure of the Russian Federation be developed
The budget for 2026-2028 provides for almost 2 trillion rubles to achieve technological leadership. In particular, 118 billion will be allocated for the development of machine tools, 88 billion for the improvement of drones, according to the documents of the Ministry of Finance.
An additional 75 billion rubles will be used to recapitalize the Industrial Development Fund, which will provide preferential loans for new projects in high-tech industries. Another 41 billion is for the development of robotics and production automation. The funds allocated in the budget will also make it possible to upgrade the enterprises of the military-industrial complex, the department notes.
In the next three years, significant funds will be allocated for the development of infrastructure, including transport. 4.6 trillion rubles will be spent on road construction and the renovation of public transport, according to the materials of the department. At the same time, an additional 18 billion will be allocated for road repairs this year.
In parallel, programs for the creation of a modern urban environment and the integrated development of rural areas will continue: over 105 billion and 180 billion, respectively, are provided for them. Another 182 billion will be spent on the modernization of communal services and more than 160 billion on the elimination of dilapidated housing.
A separate area is the development of the airfield support network. By 2030, it is planned to reconstruct and build at least 75 facilities, for which 203 billion rubles are allocated.
What awaits the regions of Russia in the next three years
By 2030, the regions will be provided with budget loans for infrastructure of 150 billion rubles annually, according to the documents of the Ministry of Finance. A total of 1 trillion is provided for these purposes.
In addition, in 2026, subsidies for equalizing budget security and salary increases will increase no lower than inflation. This should reduce the differences between subjects in terms of income.
Individual programs for regions with a low level of socio-economic development will continue to operate separately. They are aimed at increasing their potential and reducing the gap with richer subjects.
This year, as part of the clarification to the 2025 budget, additional money will be allocated to combat natural disasters. In particular, the funds will be used to overhaul hydraulic engineering and coastal defenses in Buryatia and Karachay-Cherkessia, as well as to strengthen fire safety in the regions.
Farmers will also receive support: funds will be allocated for the development of rural cooperation in Transbaikalia, Buryatia, Dagestan, Kalmykia and North Ossetia–Alania. More than 30 regions will receive additional finances for priority areas of the agro-industry. Among them are Adygea, Karelia, Mari El, Krasnoyarsk and Khabarovsk Territories.
Financing is also provided for social projects. So, 12 regions will receive money to create a system of long-term care for the elderly and people with disabilities. Among them are Buryatia, the Kamchatka Territory and the Voronezh Region.
What tax innovations are the authorities preparing?
As part of the budget package, the Ministry of Finance proposes to amend the Tax Code. This is necessary primarily to finance defense and security, according to the materials of the department.
The main innovation is an increase in the standard rate of value added tax (VAT) by 2 percentage points, from 20% to 22%. At the same time, the 10% discount rate will remain for socially important goods: food, medicines, medical products and children's items. The authorities also plan to reduce the income threshold for businesses by six times under the simplified taxation system, exceeding which creates the obligation to pay VAT: from 60 million to 10 million rubles.
The decision is directed against business fragmentation schemes in order to minimize taxes, explained in the materials of the Ministry of Finance. According to the agency, lowering the threshold to 10 million will make it possible to more effectively combat illegal schemes, and ensure a smooth transition to general taxation conditions for growing businesses.
— The VAT increase is designed to balance the budget and will become an important source of income. However, at the same time, an additional tax burden falls on enterprises, limiting their investment opportunities. The economic slowdown observed over the past 10-11 months is largely due to a drop in investment in development," says Anna Fedyunina, Associate Professor at the Department of Applied Economics at the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.
The initiative is related to the tense situation in state finances, according to economist Andrei Barkhota. According to him, for the first time in many years, the budget expenditure plan for the first half of the year has been fully implemented, whereas before it was 80-90%. This indicates that the deficit will not only persist until the end of the year, but is also likely to increase. An increase in VAT may lead to an increase in inflation, as it is included in the price of goods, the expert added.
— At the same time, this measure will increase the tax revenues of the budget, which is the most stable source of revenue. A 2 percentage point increase in the VAT rate can bring in an additional 600 billion rubles per year while maintaining current business activity and retail sales," Andrei Barkhota estimated.
What other changes are planned for 2026
The changes will also affect the taxation of the betting business, according to the documents of the Ministry of Finance. A gambling tax of 5% of the accepted rates is introduced for the offices, as well as a 25% fee on the profits of these organizations.
These measures will allow taking into account not only the turnover, but also the real financial result of companies, and will also make the market more transparent. The gambling business is traditionally characterized by high turnover with low tax returns, and the new rules should correct this imbalance, the agency explained.
At the same time, the authorities plan to cancel the benefits of insurance premiums for small and medium-sized enterprises. Uniform tariffs will be set for some areas, including trade, construction and mining: 30% up to the maximum base and 15% above it.
At the same time, a reduced tariff of 15% will remain in place for priority SME sectors — processing, manufacturing, transport, and electronics.
As stated in the materials of the Ministry of Finance, the benefit for SMEs was introduced during the pandemic as a temporary measure to maintain employment and then extended at the request of the business. It has played a role: there is a steady positive trend in the small and medium-sized business sector. Now the measure ceases to fulfill the task of saving jobs, so it is proposed to reformat it.
— The abolition of preferential rates may lead to an increase in the costs of enterprises for labor and accruals. Most likely, this will affect the growth of producer prices in certain industries and create additional inflationary risk. However, its scale will be limited by the level of demand, so the consequences will be different for each field of activity," said a researcher at the Institute of National Economic Forecasting Russian Academy of Sciences Ksenia Savchishina.
Also, commercial organizations will be required to charge insurance premiums for payments to managers, even if their salary is below the minimum wage, according to the documents of the Ministry of Finance. In such cases, the base for calculating contributions will be determined based on the minimum wage.
As explained in the department, this measure is aimed at combating one-day firms and tax evasion schemes through fictitious salaries. It will reduce the amount of "gray" payments in the corporate sector.
In addition, the possibilities of applying the federal investment tax deduction (FINT) are expanding. Now any person who is in the same group as a taxpayer who has made capital investments, regardless of the branch of his activity, will be able to take advantage of the benefit.
If the changes are accepted, they will work from January 2026.
— In recent years, the share of oil and gas revenues has been decreasing and now stands at about 30%. This is significantly less than the peak of 55%. In such circumstances, the government is looking for alternative sources of budget replenishment. Hence, tax changes, increased administration, and higher rates where possible and justified," said Anna Fedyunina from the Higher School of Economics.
Currently, the budget has few sources to cover the deficit, Ksenia Savchishina reminded. The main one is domestic borrowing, as some foreign markets are closed. This year, the account balances used at the beginning of the year helped. The level of government debt remains safe, but the key issue is the cost of servicing it. It makes sense to build up debt as long as the interest costs do not exceed the benefits of borrowing. In this sense, the financial authorities have the reserve to agree to maintain the deficit at the current level for another year or two, she added.
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