Revenue composition: the "lawyer's monopoly" may deprive the budget of 140 billion
The adoption of the bill on the "lawyer's monopoly" may lead to a significant reduction in tax revenues — up to 25 billion per year, analysts polled by Izvestia believe. The Ministry of Justice intends to tighten access to the courts in order to reduce the number of abuses by unscrupulous lawyers and make the judicial process more professional. However, according to experts, in the first five years the budget may not receive 130-140 billion rubles, despite the expected increase in the cost of lawyers' services. Izvestia investigated whether the "lawyer's monopoly" would help in the fight against "black" lawyers.
How much will the budget lose
The budget may not receive up to 25 billion rubles in tax revenues per year due to expected changes in the working conditions of lawyers, according to the Analytical research center. Business. The right" (the report is available to Izvestia). This is how they assessed the likely consequences of the so—called "lawyer monopoly" widely discussed in the legal community - in July 2025, the Ministry of Justice published amendments for public discussion that allow only lawyers to represent the interests of the parties in court. Specialists without this status will be deprived of this opportunity.
Currently, about 1.5 million lawyers work in Russia, of which 75.8 thousand (5%) have the status of a lawyer. At least 440,000 lawyers without the status of a lawyer provide judicial representation services, analysts noted.
—Judicial representation is one of the key practices in the legal market," explained Venera Shaidullina, head of the research center. — 30-40% in different segments — this is the share of the total revenue of legal services. In large firms, the share of judicial practice can reach 30%, while for independent lawyers it is often the main one.
According to her, corporate, sanctions and judicial practice are the main drivers of demand for legal services. Collectively, all types of tax and social contributions from judicial representation by the non-military segment of the market are estimated at about 20-25 billion rubles per year. This is exactly how much the budget may not receive as early as 2028, when the amendments are due to be implemented.
The press service of the Ministry of Justice, in response to a request from Izvestia, clarified that the ministry had not received any analysis on the impact of the bill on federal budget revenues. Earlier, the agency informed the editorial board that the introduction of a "lawyer's monopoly" should increase the level of protection of the rights of citizens who apply for legal services.
"Conditions will be created for the unification of professional lawyers on a single platform of the legal profession. Today, a significant proportion of legal services are provided by citizens and organizations whose ethical and professional standards of activity are not established by law," the ministry stressed.
They noted that citizens would retain the right to represent their interests personally. Also, the amendments will not affect close relatives of citizens, employees of state law bureaus, staff lawyers of organizations, arbitration managers and patent attorneys. The changes will not apply to disputes considered by justices of the peace and cases of administrative offenses.
The amendments establish a transition period until January 1, 2028, during which time lawyers will be able to acquire the status of a lawyer.
"Before the specified date, professional lawyers will be able to prepare, pass the bar exam and conduct judicial practice in the same mode," the department said.
The department also reported that a number of comments and suggestions on the bill from private practitioners, lawyers and corporations, which were received during public discussions, were taken into account.
"The draft law was developed by the Ministry of Justice of Russia pursuant to the instructions of the Prime Minister, including with the participation of the Federal Chamber of Lawyers, and is aimed at developing the legal profession and professionalizing the institution of judicial representation on its basis, as well as creating conditions for the consolidation of the legal profession. The projected norm on taking the oath of office of a lawyer before the council of the law chamber of the subject has been adjusted," the press service of the department said.
In addition, the bill expanded the circle of persons who are not covered by its provisions. In particular, representatives of citizens, with the exception of individual entrepreneurs, can also be spouses, relatives in the direct ascending and descending line, full and half-siblings, if they have a higher legal education or a degree in law.
"In addition, actions that are not related to providing qualified legal assistance to a person involved in the case will be able to be carried out by persons who have a power of attorney issued by a person involved in the case to perform such actions. It also provides an opportunity for full—time lawyers of companies to represent not only their own companies, but also companies that are part of a common group of companies with his employer," the Ministry of Justice added.
Where will taxes go
In the first five years after the introduction of the monopoly, the total lost budget revenues will amount to about 130-140 billion rubles, experts at the Analytica center believe. Business. The right." They noted that losses will grow, reaching 30 billion rubles a year by 2032. And even the expected increase in prices for lawyers' services will not cover the difference in budget revenues — the bar has special conditions for tax fees.
Lawyers, unlike commercial organizations, do not pay income tax and VAT, and their main tax burden is personal income tax, said Vladimir Kuznetsov, Vice President of the Association of Lawyers for Registration, Liquidation, Bankruptcy and Judicial Representation.
Tatiana Kurushina, a senior associate at Mikhailov & Co. Law Agency, agreed that the budget would receive less taxes from legal activities, but the loss would not be as high as analysts believe.
"It won't be exactly zero rubles, but it won't be 1.3 billion either, as it is now, since firms are likely to go into purely consulting services and partially remain on the market," she said. — It is possible that law firms will change their organizational and legal form, as they will be able to meet the limits of the simplified taxation system.
In her opinion, there will be a reduction in taxes to the budget, but at the level of 10-15 billion rubles. However, these are also big numbers, the expert noted.
How to identify an unscrupulous lawyer
The problem of unscrupulous lawyers is really acute in the legal services market, Vladimir Kuznetsov added.
"Unfortunately, there are people in any field whose activities discredit the profession," he stressed. — Unscrupulous lawyers can use various schemes of deception: from overstating the cost of services and promises of obviously unattainable results to outright fraud and embezzlement of clients' funds.
According to him, a professional lawyer can never guarantee the outcome of a trial, as it depends on many factors, including the evidence base, the opponent's position, and the court's decision. For example, promises of a 100% win in court are the first sign of bad faith.
— Some lawyers initially call the cost of services low, and then in the process of work they require additional payments for each step that is not specified in the contract, — said Vladimir Kuznetsov. — They can also demonstrate active work to the client, which in fact does not bring results and is aimed only at pumping out money.
In addition, unscrupulous lawyers take advantage of the fact that most citizens do not understand the intricacies of legislation and impose unnecessary or ineffective services on them. The professional community is actively fighting against such phenomena, the expert emphasized.
"For example, law chambers and other professional associations have the right to impose disciplinary penalties on their members for violating ethical standards and legislation," he said. — It can be a warning, a remark, and in the most serious cases, the deprivation of the status of a lawyer or exclusion from a professional organization.
In addition, there is such a method as the formation of registers of unscrupulous practitioners: some professional associations maintain internal or public lists of lawyers who have committed violations.
Mikhail Bozhor, CEO of Afonin, Bozhor and Partners law firm, believes that the law, if adopted, will have virtually no effect on unscrupulous, "black" lawyers who force clients to agree to services they do not need at an extremely inflated cost.
"If a consumer has a dispute for a small amount, and the cost of legal services is many times the amount of the dispute, we are talking about fraudulent lawyers," he said. — Formally, their activities are in the legal field, as the legislation does not establish a minimum or maximum cost of legal services. But the overall financial effect for the client is negative.
A "lawyer's monopoly" will not have a significant impact on unscrupulous firms, since their employees rarely represent clients in courts — usually their activities are limited to preparing lawsuits or requests to government agencies.
"And it is possible to reduce the number of unscrupulous players in the market only through mandatory licensing of law firms," the specialist added.
In addition, the development and implementation of uniform standards for the provision of legal services, as well as codes of professional ethics, will help improve the overall level of integrity in the profession, experts noted.
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