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- Not everything is collected: the budget risks losing almost a trillion dollars in income tax
Not everything is collected: the budget risks losing almost a trillion dollars in income tax
The budget may lose about 1 trillion rubles from income tax, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. The financial plan for this year includes an amount of 4.2 trillion — by the end of August, 2.3 trillion had been raised. The risk of shortfall remains, despite an almost doubling in fees. The main reasons are the high key interest rate, which increases the cost of servicing business loans. In addition, the results may also be lower in the event of a deterioration in the external economic situation and cheaper energy resources. Whether it will be possible to avoid shortages while stabilizing the situation is in the Izvestia article.
Budget income from income tax in 2025
Since 2025, the income tax rate has increased from 20% to 25%. A fee of 8% is now sent to the federal budget instead of 3% (17% goes to the regional treasury).
As a result, back in May 2025, the federal budget received almost 1.6 trillion rubles from income tax, according to data from the analytical portal of the Federal Tax Service, which was studied by Izvestia. This is 75% more than the same indicator in 2024. This growth is the sharpest since May 2013. From 2006 to 2012, statistics were kept by half-year period.
The Federal Tax Service has not yet provided data for the second quarter, but they were disclosed by the Ministry of Finance on its Electronic Budget resource. According to the portal, which was studied by Izvestia, federal treasury income from income tax by the end of August 2025 increased by 77% compared to the same period of the previous year, to 2.3 trillion rubles.
Advance payments for the company's income tax are made to the budget during the year. If the organization's revenue is below 15 million rubles per quarter — once every three months, if higher — once every 30 days. The money must be paid by the 28th of next month.
The amount of 4.2 trillion rubles is included in the financial plan for income from income tax. However, there is a risk that the budget will not reach about 1 trillion rubles, says Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
According to him, this is possible with the deterioration of the external economic situation, and above all in the raw materials sector, which generates the lion's share of profits. In particular, falling oil and gas prices, increased export sanctions, or declining global demand may slow down revenue, the expert explained.
Mathematical calculations also indicate the risk of a shortfall of about a trillion on this article. If the budget has collected almost 2.3 trillion in eight months, then it will receive about 3.4 trillion in a year.
Economist Andrey Barkhota also confirmed this risk. However, according to him, the lost funds can be compensated with proceeds from privatization or fines.
Yes, indeed, there may be a shortage of about a trillion, confirmed Daniel Tune, head of the customer relations department at AMCH investment and analytical company.
Nevertheless, there is a possibility that it will still be possible to fulfill the plan for this article. The fact is that corporate income tax is unevenly distributed — large receipts occur in the fall and the end of the year due to the closure of accounting periods, Vladimir Chernov said. Over-fulfillment is realistic only if oil prices rise to $70 per barrel, as well as export volumes remain. On September 5, the Urals brand price was $65.49 per barrel.
As the press service of the Ministry of Finance told Izvestia, it is too early to make forecasts for the year. The Agency carefully monitors budget revenues at all levels and forms a final assessment. The editorial board sent a request to the banks to see if they see the risks there.
Why have income tax revenues increased?
The change in the income tax rate led to a significant increase in income, the press service of the Ministry of Finance told Izvestia. In other words, the increase was largely mechanical, and with the same volume of companies' profits, after the fee was increased by 5 percentage points, the tax burden increased sharply, explained Vladimir Chernov.
According to him, there may be other reasons for such a large increase, for example, high inflation, due to which nominal revenue and profit figures remain significant. In July, the price increase was at the level of 8.8% per annum.
In addition, other factors related to tax control and the motivation of business entities to work "wholeheartedly" could play a role in this, added Andrey Girinsky, associate professor at the Faculty of Economics at RUDN University.
Izvestia sent a request to the Federal Tax Service of Russia about the reason for such a large increase in revenue.
How does a high key rate affect a business?
Further budget revenues from income tax will depend on the position of companies, that is, on how much they manage to earn. So far, the situation is not the most favorable: in addition to changes in the tax system, the key rate has begun to decrease, but still remains at a high level — 18%. This makes the cost of borrowed capital high.
In addition, raising money becomes more difficult when there are problems with compliance, which can lead to a decrease in confidence on the part of investors and creditors. This, in turn, increases the likelihood of penalties and penalties in the event of civil or tax disputes (for example, in case of late tax payments).
For companies, all this means a reduction in net profit and a reduction in the amount of funds that can be used for dividends, investments and debt repayment, said Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Finance Global. Most businesses have loans at a floating rate, which means that their loan servicing costs have increased and profits have decreased.
— This is especially sensitive for businesses with high debt loads and industries with low profitability. At the same time, major exporters, despite falling margins, are still among the main budget donors," the expert explained.
At the same time, the current income tax rate in Russia is no higher than those established in other developed countries of the world, says Ekaterina Golubtsova, associate professor of the Department of State and Municipal Finance at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. In addition, the tax legislation provides for a number of measures to reduce the tax burden in priority areas, she added.
For the budget, the increase in income tax is a key source of revenue generation, Vladimir Chernov believes. These funds are used to finance social obligations and partially to cover the deficit. In the first seven months of 2025, the treasury deficit is estimated at 4.9 trillion. In this case, income tax revenues help to smooth out cash gaps and reduce dependence on borrowings from the National Welfare Fund, the expert added.
In addition, the budget deficit this year risks significantly exceeding the planned values, which makes income tax collection even more important. According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, it may amount to about 5.5–6 trillion rubles. However, if the situation worsens, it may grow to 7.5–7.8 trillion. "Some of our colleagues in the government believe that it is possible to increase this deficit — there is nothing wrong with that," Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the WEF plenary session on September 5.
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