PAS from abroad: Moldovan authorities are preparing for crucial elections
Moldova has two weeks left before the most important parliamentary elections. According to opinion polls, the opposition has a good chance of winning, but the ruling party does not intend to give up. Maya Sandu and her entourage rely on forceful pressure on opponents and the mobilization of the diaspora in Western countries. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
The authorities are mobilizing the diaspora for the elections
Parliamentary elections will be held in Moldova on September 28, which will determine the configuration of power for the next four years. It is important that the country is a parliamentary republic, and it is the legislative assembly that has the most powers. Therefore, the current vote is especially important for the future of the country.
According to opinion polls, the opposition has a good chance of winning, and representatives of the ruling team themselves are worried about the upcoming elections. Thus, on September 11, Prime Minister Dorin Rechan and Parliament Speaker Igor Grossu gave a special briefing, during which they stated that they were "a little short" of the pro-European majority. At the same time, both politicians called on their supporters to come to the polling stations and support the current course.
However, the matter is not limited to exhortations alone. Representatives of the ruling team traditionally rely on the vote of the diaspora, that is, Moldovans who left the country. For example, last year it was migrants who gave Maya Sandu the opportunity to be re-elected as president, but she lost in the second round. In addition, it was the voices of the diaspora that allowed pro-Western forces to gain a majority in the European referendum.
This year, this tool is being used on an even greater scale. First, the country's authorities have increased the number of foreign polling stations. If 231 polling stations were equipped at last year's elections, this year there are 293 at once. The largest increases are in Italy, Germany and France. In addition, residents of a dozen Western countries had the opportunity to participate in the elections by mail.
In addition, the CEC announced that more than a million ballots will be printed for foreign polling stations, although last year only 320 thousand people voted abroad. The election commission explained that they were allegedly preparing for maximum citizen activity. Observers noted that this approach is not practiced everywhere. So, 23 thousand ballots were printed for Transnistria, although 26 thousand people came to the polling stations there last year.
A queue for voting at the Embassy of the Republic of Moldova in Berlin during the second round of the presidential elections in Moldova in 2024
At the same time, quite loud scandals are already breaking out in Western countries. The Moldovan Embassy in Ireland has published instructions on the rules of voting in the elections, and the video showed a ballot with a check mark for the ruling party. Representatives of the opposition appealed to the CEC with a complaint, but it did not see any violations.
All this raises serious questions about possible fraud. Obviously, the opposition can protect itself from fraud only by mass involvement of observers who will monitor the situation in foreign polling stations. The main opponents of the ruling party announced the preparation of their missions, but it is not yet known what the outcome will be, it is more difficult and more expensive to organize surveillance outside the country than inside Moldova.
The police are putting pressure on the opposition
The second important tool of the ruling team is forceful pressure. The election cycle began with the trial of Gagauz Bashkan Evgenia Gutsul, who was eventually sentenced to seven years in prison. According to the lawyers, the politician is being held in solitary confinement, and in the month since the verdict, she has only been allowed to see her family once.
In addition, the Pobeda opposition bloc was not allowed to participate in the elections, and all attempts to appeal the decision led to nothing. Finally, recently, almost daily searches have been taking place at the activists of the "Heart of Moldova" party, which is part of the popular Patriotic bloc, against this background, there has been talk in the country that he might be removed from the elections at the last moment.
Moldovan opposition politician, leader of the Shor party Ilan Shor speaks during the congress of supporters of the Moldovan political bloc Pobeda in Moscow
Interior Minister Daniella Misail-Nikitina said that since the beginning of the election period, 2,000 searches have already been conducted in the country, dozens of people have been detained, and several criminal cases have been initiated. "The most frequent violations are related to paid participation in protests, disobeying the demands of the police or Carabinieri, hooliganism and violation of the law on assemblies," she said.
In addition, the opposition Alternative bloc has problems. The fact is that one of the leaders of the association, Ion Cheban, went to a conference in Italy, although European sanctions were imposed on him. Later, he explained that he went on a trip to fulfill the duties of the mayor of Chisinau, but the ruling party demanded that the politician be removed from the race, and the CEC limited itself to a warning.
In general, there have already been a lot of scandals during the campaign. Thus, the chairman of the parliament, Igor Grossu, spoke frankly about communicating with local authorities, and a corresponding video appeared on social networks. "I'm putting pressure on the mayors myself. I personally meet with all the mayors, ours and not ours. I tell them: if we have a bad result in the fall, forget about sewerage, water and other necessary projects," he says.
In addition, the Minister of Labor and Social Protection, Alexei Buzu, called those who vote for the opposition "cattle" during a meeting with voters. Opponents of the ruling party were outraged by the statement itself, and by the fact that the current official participates in campaigning events. Buzu himself first stated that his words had been taken out of context, but then he apologized and said that he had come to the rally on his day off.
Alexey Buzu, Minister of Labor and Social Protection of Moldova
At the same time, opinion polls show a fairly confident leadership of the opposition. Thus, a study by the iData center conducted in early September shows that the rating of the Patriotic Bloc has reached 36%, while the ruling PAS holds the indicator at 34.7%. It is important that the figures are given without taking into account the votes of Pridnestrovian voters and the foreign diaspora. Another factor is that about half of the voters have not decided on their preferences, and much will depend on their final choice.
What the experts say
Sergei Manastyrli, head of the Balkan Center for Analysis, Research and Forecasting, believes that the opposition has little chance of winning.
— The ruling team is increasing its repression, and also clearly intends to actively use its large resource in the form of diaspora voting. Everything is being done to preserve the parliamentary majority, which will be able to form a government on its own. This will allow us to continue to pursue a course of dissociation from Russia and rapprochement with the West," he emphasizes.
The expert adds that it is hardly possible to talk about the victory of the Patriotic Bloc or the coalition of protest forces. According to Manastyrla, many opponents of the ruling party are not really fighting for power, the limit of their dreams is the status of the "beloved PAS opposition" in parliament after the elections.
Igor Shornikov, an associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of Russia and former Deputy Foreign Minister of Pridnestrovie, believes that the ruling party is on the verge of collapse.
— All recent opinion polls show that the PAS is losing popularity, and the functionaries themselves publicly express doubts about the victory. It seems that Sandu's team will not be able to get a single majority in parliament after the elections, and the option of forming a coalition is questionable," he emphasizes.
The analyst cites two main reasons for the current situation.
— Firstly, there are mistakes in the conduct of the campaign, many are repelled by the demonstrative disregard for voters. In addition, the population seems to have stopped believing that the current authorities are able to protect the country from being drawn into the Ukrainian conflict. On the contrary, there was a feeling that if the current leadership remained, the crisis could scale, and the Moldovan population would turn into "cannon fodder," he explains.
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