Hurt by technology: Europe uses the incident in Poland to escalate the conflict
The West is using the incident with downed drones in Poland to disrupt negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. According to Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, they are currently on pause, despite the preservation of communication channels. Warsaw hastened to accuse Russia, despite the lack of evidence presented. The Russian Defense Ministry even offered to hold consultations on this issue, but there was no reaction, the Russian Embassy told Izvestia. On September 12, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski arrived in Kiev. Against the background of the Russian-Belarusian exercises, NATO also activated Article 4 on consultations, increased patrolling of airspace and began the transfer of troops to the eastern borders. At the same time, the Kremlin emphasizes that the Zapad-2025 maneuvers are not directed against third countries. Nevertheless, Europe is now limited in its influence, and Kiev's strategy boils down to prolonging the conflict, experts say. How his allies are using escalation to try to return Washington to the path of confrontation with Moscow — in the Izvestia article.
Kiev's European partners are rocking the UAV incident
Kiev's European allies are trying to use the incident with downed drones in Poland to disrupt the negotiation process on Ukraine. By fanning the escalation, they are also trying to negate the positive results of the meeting between the presidents of the Russian Federation and the United States and return confrontation to relations between Moscow and Washington.
On September 11, Donald Trump stated that he was unhappy with the situation with the UAVs shot down over Poland, but noted that this could have been the result of a mistake. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk contradicted him, stressing that the incident should not be considered an accident.
Using recent events as an excuse, Europe has decided to step up its military support for Ukraine. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski arrived in Kyiv on September 12. Donald Tusk said earlier that Warsaw intends to cooperate with Kiev in the field of anti-drone systems and hold consultations with military specialists. Poland's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defense Vladislav Kosinyak-Kamysh also planned a trip to Ukraine. The WSJ, citing an official, reports that Germany also plans to send two Eurofighter fighter jets to the border with Poland.
Recall that on the morning of September 10, the Polish operational command announced the defeat of several drones. Warsaw immediately blamed Russia. Andrei Ordash, the Russian Charge d'affaires in Poland, stressed that the Polish authorities had not provided evidence of the Russian origin of the downed drones. The Russian Defense Ministry said it was not planned to hit targets in Poland.
The Agency is ready to hold consultations with Warsaw on this issue. However, there was no response.
"There has been no reaction from the Polish side to the initiative of the Russian Defense Ministry," the press service of the Russian Embassy in Poland told Izvestia.
Karol Navrotsky speaks at a meeting of the National Security Council
However, the Polish position was immediately supported by the EU leadership, and NATO confirmed its readiness to defend "every inch of the alliance's territory" by initiating Article 4 on mutual consultations at Poland's request. The North Atlantic Alliance also intends to strengthen the protection of its airspace. Allegedly, against the background of the Russian-Belarusian exercises, Poland and Latvia closed the "air" near the eastern border. Warsaw will personally transfer about 40 thousand soldiers to the border with the Union State. Germany is strengthening its presence on NATO's eastern flank, and France will send three Rafale fighter jets to Poland, Emmanuel Macron said. At the same time, the Kremlin stressed that the ongoing Zapad-2025 maneuvers are not directed against anyone.
But NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced the launch of the Eastern Sentinel initiative under the pretext of strengthening the defense of the alliance's eastern flank due to the incident with the UAV in Poland. It will begin in the coming days and will include various resources of the allies, including Denmark, France, Great Britain and Germany.
Nevertheless, the drone incident is unlikely to lead to an immediate escalation, said Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of Russia.
— If escalation really was the goal, then measures would have already been taken. Most likely, the drones were assembled, restored and launched towards Poland in order to either involve it in the conflict or demonstrate the need for military and financial assistance," he said in an interview with Izvestia.
By the way, former assistant to the head of the Pentagon, Stephen Brien, expressed the opinion that the drones that entered the territory of Poland were controlled by the special services of Ukraine.
In any case, an attempt to disrupt the negotiation process by Kiev's European allies is obvious.
"From Kiev's point of view, this attack can be perceived as an unfriendly act on the part of Russia, which gives grounds for Kiev to suspend negotiations," the expert added.
In the wake of bellicose rhetoric against the Russian Federation, British Prince Harry arrived in Kiev in parallel with Sikorsky. He will meet with Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Sviridenko and intends to discuss the initiatives of his Invictus Games Foundation for the rehabilitation of wounded servicemen. However, in this case, he does not officially represent London: Prince Harry and his wife Meghan Markle in January 2020 abandoned the role of senior members of the British royal family and lost the official representation of the monarch.
Negotiations with Ukraine on pause
By the way, the negotiating groups of Russia and Ukraine have currently suspended active cooperation, despite the fact that channels for contacts remain open. This was announced on September 12 by Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, commenting on the state of dialogue between Moscow and Kiev.
— There are communication channels, they are well established. Our negotiators have the opportunity to communicate through these channels, but for now, it is probably more likely that we can talk about a pause," the Kremlin representative said.
The Europeans are interfering with the process of resolving the Ukrainian crisis, it's no secret, he stressed.
The dynamics of the negotiation process on Ukraine has indeed slowed down. In general, the Europeans' position towards Russia has been extremely unfriendly from the very beginning, and they continue to support it. The EU countries are actually blocking Kiev's opportunity to participate in a dialogue with Moscow. All this is against the background of a weak negotiating position.
— The current capabilities of European countries are extremely limited. The difficult economic situation makes Brussels a secondary player on the world stage, and Europe's role in Trump's approach has been minimized," Polish political analyst and former Sejm deputy Mateusz Piskorski tells Izvestia.
Bogdan Bespalko also stressed the limited capabilities of European countries: without the help of the United States, radical steps against Moscow are impossible. Therefore, Europe will continue to support Ukraine until Kiev is forced to make concessions, the expert said.
Russia and Ukraine have held three rounds of meetings in Istanbul this year, agreeing on humanitarian prisoner exchanges and the return of bodies. The Russian delegation, led by Presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, proposed the creation of three working groups on political, humanitarian and military issues, as well as the introduction of short-term truces for 24-48 hours for the work of sanitary teams. Despite Moscow's willingness to raise the level of the negotiating group, there was no reaction from Kiev to the proposals. There is no response to the creation of working groups, not to mention truces.
If Ukraine rejects the proposed options again, the terms of negotiations may become significantly tougher, including possible territorial concessions, especially against the background of the offensive by Russian forces, notes Mateusz Piskorski.
The fourth stage of negotiations is being delayed largely due to Kiev's unwillingness to make concessions. The Ukrainian authorities insist on a summit of heads of state and a priority discussion of the ceasefire, while Moscow stands for resolving the root causes of the conflict and respecting the rights of the Russian-speaking population.
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