Gun law: Israel is ready to continue strikes in Lebanon
Israel allows the continuation of military operations against Hezbollah in the event that the Shiite movement refuses to disarm. The office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Izvestia that they would do everything necessary to ensure the safety of their citizens. On September 5, in Beirut, the Lebanese Cabinet discussed a plan to establish a state monopoly on weapons. However, Hezbollah considers the government's decision a "huge mistake" and does not intend to surrender its arsenals. This increases the risks of internal conflict between the movement and the armed forces. According to experts, the crisis in the country may escalate into a civil war.
The Lebanese army has put forward a plan to disarm Hezbollah
On September 5, the Lebanese Government reviewed a plan proposed by the army to establish a state monopoly on gun ownership by the end of 2025. The authorities hope to gain the consent of the Shiite Hezbollah movement based in the country in order to avoid the risk of civil conflict. However, the initiative has already caused sharp disagreements in the government and threatens to escalate the confrontation between the army and the group. The movement also stressed that the government's decision was a "huge mistake," and the organization itself intended to continue acting as if no decisions had been made.
The Israeli side, in turn, makes it clear that it does not intend to abandon military action if Hezbollah decides to ignore the disarmament plan.
—Israel is closely monitoring the development of the situation in Lebanon and will do everything necessary to ensure the safety of its citizens," Dmitry Gendelman, adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office, told Izvestia, answering a question about the possibility of continuing military operations.
Thick clouds of smoke from a nighttime Israeli air raid on the southern suburbs of Beirut. The Israeli military attacked several sites in the southern suburbs of Beirut, which, according to them, were used by Hezbollah to produce drones, on the eve of Eid al-Adha, June 5.
Thus, Israel's position actually allows for continued attacks on Hezbollah targets. This can happen even if the Lebanese plan is implemented, that is, if it is partially implemented or it turns out that the movement has retained some of its weapons, bypassing the agreements.
— Israel's intervention in the issue of disarmament, whether through pressure or force, will be extremely destructive not only for the group itself, but also for Lebanon as a whole. The Jewish state acts without regard to international law and is ready to seek the destruction of Hezbollah at any cost," retired Lebanese Brigadier General George Nader told Izvestia.
In his opinion, that is why it is important for Lebanon to find its own solution inside the country and avoid a scenario imposed from the outside. He stressed that the task of the government and political forces is to work out an internal Lebanese settlement, and not to allow Israel and its international allies to dictate terms by force.
At the same time, disagreements over the plan have deepened the split in the Lebanese leadership itself. The initiative is supported by President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. It is opposed by the Shiite duo of Hezbollah and the Amal movement. In the Government, which consists of 24 ministers, these forces account for five portfolios. Therefore, Hezbollah could not block the meeting, a quorum would have been provided anyway, since the constitution requires the participation of two thirds of the cabinet.
During the cabinet meeting, five ministers from both movements defiantly left the room when the government began discussing the army plan. This was reported by the Lebanese National News Agency. Following the meeting, Lebanese Information Minister Paul Morkos clarified that the cabinet had reviewed the army's plan and approved the main objectives of the document.
What could Hezbollah's refusal to disarm lead to?
Nevertheless, the likelihood of the plan being implemented in this form remains questionable. In his last speech, Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem stressed that weapons in the hands of members of the movement are a guarantee of the country's security in the face of Israeli aggression. According to him, those who insist on disarmament under pressure from the United States, "rather threaten the security of Lebanon."
— In the case of an attempt to forcibly disarm Hezbollah, against the background of Israeli attacks, this may lead to internal clashes. The movement does not have guarantees capable of protecting it and a significant part of the Lebanese population from Israeli aggression," Jamal Wakim, a professor at the Lebanese University, told Izvestia.
The expert also drew attention to the risk of a split in the army, which, combined with regional and international pressure, could pose a serious threat to the stability of the country. In his opinion, these factors make the military option extremely dangerous and unpredictable for Lebanon.
George Nader also pointed out the serious risk of collisions. He noted that Hezbollah continues to categorically reject the idea of surrendering weapons, despite UN resolutions and agreements concluded earlier by the Lebanese government. According to him, the movement's position is becoming more and more rigid, which increases the likelihood of a direct confrontation with the Lebanese army if the plan is implemented.
In mid-August, Kasem explicitly warned of the risk of civil war in the event of an attempt to forcibly seize the movement's arsenal. His position was shared by Hezbollah's negotiator and parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. On August 31, he declared his readiness to discuss the issue of transferring weapons to the army only within the framework of a national dialogue.
Sea view in the Rosh Hashanah area in northern Israel, on the border with Lebanon
Wakim stressed that the only acceptable way out of the situation could be a compromise that would satisfy both the government and Hezbollah. To do this, it is necessary to develop a national defense strategy that would guarantee the protection of sea and air borders from Israeli attacks. Actually, Secretary General Naim Kasem insists on this.
The US position on the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah
The ceasefire agreement in Lebanon entered into force on November 27, 2024. According to the agreements, Israel was obliged to withdraw its troops from the country within 60 days, and Hezbollah should move its armed formations north of the Litani River. The agreement also provides for Lebanon's control of the southern border with the support of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).
Back in the summer, Washington presented a roadmap for the disarmament of Hezbollah. She was brought to the Lebanese authorities by US Special Envoy Tom Barrack. According to the proposal, in exchange for the movement's renunciation of weapons, Israel should stop attacks on Lebanese territory. However, in practice, the ceasefire agreement has been violated for nine months. According to Beirut, from November 2024 to August 15, 2025, more than 4.3 thousand Israeli violations were recorded. The Israeli army claims that its operations are directed against Hezbollah's attempts to regain its positions.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently reiterated the hard line, saying that Israeli forces will strike "whenever Hezbollah raises its head." Against this background, the Shiite movement insists that before discussing the issue of surrendering weapons, the Lebanese government should demand an end to attacks and the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from the five border areas occupied during the war.
Paul Morkos stressed that further progress directly depends on Israel's willingness to fulfill its obligations. According to the minister, so far no steps have been taken by the Jewish state.
The US position is ambiguous. According to the Lebanese TV channel MTV, various approaches are being discussed in Washington: from forceful pressure and sanctions against individual Lebanese politicians or the military to attempts to convince Israel to soften its position.
At the same time, the Lebanese authorities find themselves in a difficult situation.: They cannot take a clear position on the issue of Hezbollah's disarmament, for fear of losing American funds to rebuild the country. According to Yedioth Ahronoth, the United States warned that inaction or partial implementation of the plan could lead to a reduction in annual aid to Lebanon from Congress, which amounts to about $150 million. Its loss will negatively affect at least the national forces: in January 2023, the United States redistributed $72 million for salaries in the Lebanese army.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
