Two steps away from the civil war: Hezbollah threatens Lebanon with chaos
Washington expects West Jerusalem to make concessions to Beirut. The day before, special envoy of the US President Tom Barrack arrived in the Lebanese capital, who hopes that Israel will agree to withdraw military units from five areas in southern Lebanon. The Lebanese authorities, in turn, agreed to disarm the Hezbollah group. The Israeli Government's next steps depend on how well they succeed. Meanwhile, the leader of the Shiite movement responded by threatening to plunge the country into chaos. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
The sword is on Israel's side
"It is always necessary to act in stages, I think that the Lebanese government has done its part, has taken the first step. Now we need Israel to take a step forward," U.S. Special Presidential Envoy Tom Barrack said during a visit to Beirut.
According to the diplomat, Israel is ready for this if Lebanon starts disarming Hezbollah.
Barrak's visit to the Lebanese capital took place after the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, Ali Larijani, visited there, who apparently persuaded Beirut not to rush to disarm the groups allied to Tehran operating in the country. Shortly before that, the Lebanese Cabinet of Ministers instructed the army to develop a plan to disarm Hezbollah by the end of the year.
Washington is seeking a settlement in Lebanon on its own terms: This plan implies the maximum reduction of Iran's influence. However, the authorities in Beirut are seeking guarantees from the administration of US President Donald Trump that Israel, in turn, will withdraw troops from five strategically important areas in southern Lebanon.
We do not intend to give up
In Beirut, Barrak met with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, the army commander who assumed the powers of head of state in January this year. The Lebanese leader noted that the armed forces of the state need increased international support, as they will have to take a leading role in the process of disarming local groups.
Last November, Lebanon and Hezbollah agreed to a U.S. proposal for a cease-fire with Israel. However, West Jerusalem, contrary to the current ceasefire, continues to hold five strategically important areas in southern Lebanon, which it captured during the two-month armed confrontation with Hezbollah, and periodically strikes deep into the country.
The Israeli authorities threaten not to stop until the Shiite group is disarmed.
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who often represents Hezbollah's interests in international negotiations, said that Israel's commitment to a cease-fire and a complete withdrawal of troops is the key to stability in Lebanon.
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam says the same thing. He stressed that the United States should "put pressure on Israel to stop the fighting," withdraw its troops and release the Lebanese prisoners it holds.
The American diplomat, in turn, noted that Lebanon is suffering from an economic crisis, and the participation of West Jerusalem is necessary to ensure prosperity, rehabilitation and reconstruction.
Berry added that the United States is currently discussing its position with Israel, and promised that in the next few weeks "progress can be seen from all sides."
The Hezbollah group was greatly weakened as a result of last year's war with Israel. However, despite this, its leader Naim Qassem promised to fight the disarmament plans, saying that "the group will not lay down its arms until the [Israeli] occupation ends."
"There will be no life for Lebanon if they want to demilitarize the group by force. Either Lebanon stays and we stay together, or it can say goodbye to the world. We will fight if necessary to resist disarmament at any cost," Kasem threatened.
Prime Minister Nawaf Salam considered the statement by the Secretary General of Hezbollah to be a clear "hint of a civil war."
What do the experts think
Vasily Ostanin-Golovnya, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East at the INION RAS, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that Hezbollah's threats to deprive Lebanon of peace are justified and real.
— There have already been several mass demonstrations — Hezbollah is currently able to mobilize the street. But if not only Israel and its Western allies, but also any Lebanese political forces participate in attempts to disarm it, the consensus established in the country will be violated, and then the Shiite group will obviously take the last move - take people out into the streets, the expert believes.
According to him, in conditions when Iran's position in the region is significantly weakened due to the lack of resources and normal supply channels for weapons and finances, it will be very difficult for Hezbollah to act.
— The political crisis was replaced by an economic one, and the economic one was replaced by a political one, which was strongly manifested both in popular culture and in political practice. It is enough to look at the state of the Lebanese parliament or recall the famous presidential crisis," the expert noted.
The political scientist added that the new president, Joseph Aoun, was able to consolidate the main players inside Lebanon amid the threat of state collapse and Lebanon's descent into a failed state.
— But he can hardly keep control of the country in case of destabilization. They may well recall that he was a general and commander of an entire brigade, which was stationed in the south of the country, between the territories controlled by Hezbollah and Israel, as well as the fact that he actively cooperated with anti—Iranian forces in the region and made concessions to the European Union and the United States, the analyst believes.
Vasily Ostanin-Golovnya stressed that some regional players are already taking steps in an attempt to push through the option of disarming Hezbollah. In particular, Saudi Arabia, which has traditionally had close ties with Sunni political parties, movements and organizations in Lebanon.
"The risks are very high, and the only thing that can encourage Hezbollah not to take drastic steps is the measures promised by Saudi Arabia and the United States aimed at resolving territorial issues and border control issues with the new Syrian authorities," the orientalist believes.
In his opinion, if regional and international heavyweights provide Lebanon with some guarantees of security and territorial integrity, then for the time being Hezbollah may agree to some kind of scenario with a reduction in weapons and personnel of the movement's combat wing.
"But the group is unlikely to agree to complete disarmament and will defend it by all available means, but above all, to act through the masses," the political scientist is sure.
Andrey Ontikov, an orientalist and author of the Telegram channel Eastern Gate, believes that there are two important conditions for achieving detente in Lebanon.
— The first is the withdrawal of Israel from the occupied territories in Lebanon, the second is the disarmament of Hezbollah. It's hard to imagine that these two conditions are feasible. When Israel occupies certain territories, it is extremely reluctant to leave them. At the same time, it is very difficult to imagine that Hezbollah will give up weapons, especially considering how extensive the infrastructure (with strongholds and educational centers) it has managed to build. So the situation is extremely difficult. The Americans are taking some steps, but I am not sure of their success," the analyst concluded.
Ontikov notes that the discussion around the disarmament of the Shiite group is more destabilizing to the situation in Lebanon itself than it solves the assigned tasks of settlement on the Israeli-Lebanese track.
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