Why India does not succumb to US pressure over Russian oil. Analysis

Russia and India have maintained friendly and trusting relations for decades, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in China. Earlier it became known that despite the duties imposed by the American leader Donald Trump, the volume of Russian oil exports to India will continue to grow in September.Indian oil refining companies intend to increase purchases by 10-20%, which is equivalent to 150-300 thousand barrels per day. Why New Delhi does not succumb to Washington's pressure is in the Izvestia article.

Reasons for purchases

• US President Donald Trump has imposed additional tariffs of 25% on goods exported from India due to New Delhi's increased purchases of Russian oil. As a result, total duties on Indian goods entering the United States have been 50% since August 27. This is one of the highest levels among the countries with which the United States has developed trade relations. The head of the White House justified such measures by the fact that India "either directly or indirectly" continues to import oil from Russia. However, despite Washington's financial pressure, India is not only not giving in, but is also going to increase purchases of Russian oil.

• The decision to continue cooperation with Russia is primarily due to the fact that India has significantly increased its purchases of Russian oil in recent years, which has led to a reduction in imported volumes of more expensive fuel from OPEC countries. As a result, Russia remains the key source of supplies for the country — about 37%. At the same time, even if for some reason India stops Russian imports, this will lead to a reduction in global supplies by about one million barrels per day and a short-term price spike from $100 to $200 per barrel.

• The favorable price of Russian raw materials remains attractive to Indian oil refineries. The low cost of oil from Russia compared to supplies from other regions allows India to reduce import costs and improve the economic efficiency of refining. Against the background of high volatility in world oil prices and the unstable situation in the energy markets, Russian oil is becoming a relatively affordable resource for India.

Delivery played: India has made a decision on Russian oil

Fuel purchases from the Russian Federation are an issue of energy security for 1.4 billion residents of the republic, the ambassador said.

• In addition, Russia has been actively expanding its export opportunities recently, increasing supplies to countries that have not joined Western sanctions. In particular, Moscow provides New Delhi with a 5% discount on oil. Russian oil is also beneficial in the long term, as it is supplied stably, which is important for maintaining the sustainability of national energy security.

• Against this background of US pressure, India is moving closer not only to Russia, but also to China, which, as noted in the expert community, implements Washington's "terrible dream". This may lead to an increase in trade turnover and settlements in national currencies, which will reduce dependence on the dollar in international trade. In particular, India is already reducing assets in US Treasuries to $227 billion in June 2025. The PRC adheres to the same strategy, which has reduced its share in the US government debt to a minimum since 2009.

• Despite political pressure and tariffs from the United States, India continues to pursue an independent foreign policy focused on its economic interests. New Delhi has a rather pragmatic approach in the energy sector. Maintaining and increasing Russian oil supplies in the face of uncertainty on global markets seems more profitable for India than finding alternative supplies. There have been reports in the media that India may reduce purchases amid American pressure. However, we are not talking about a complete abandonment of Russian raw materials.

Possible consequences

• One of Washington's retaliatory measures to India's demonstrative opposition may be to increase pressure. In recent years, the United States has repeatedly tried to influence countries that strengthen economic ties with Russia, using sanctions, as well as threats of possible restrictions on trade or investment. However, the situation with India is somewhat different, as it is an important strategic partner of the United States in Asia, especially in the context of the confrontation with China.

Trump has brought India and China closer. Analysis

• The United States may also initiate an international discussion on ways to pressure India to get New Delhi to reconsider its position on oil purchases from Russia. In particular, Washington has already appealed to European countries to impose sanctions on India similar to the American ones, including a complete cessation of oil and gas supplies. However, it is unlikely that all European countries will support Trump's desire to unleash a trade war with India, because they have already suffered due to the protectionist policy of the United States.

• However, it is important to keep in mind that India is a major economic and geopolitical player in Asia, and its involvement in global supply chains, as well as the importance of energy security for the country, make it resilient to external pressures. In addition, India has consistently asserted its right to pursue foreign policy in the interests of its economy, which makes it more independent in making decisions related to foreign trade.

• At the same time, the United States can ease the pressure on India, because the countries are closely connected economically. In particular, the parties planned to double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030. To achieve this goal, the parties conducted five rounds of negotiations on a bilateral trade agreement. And new duties may interfere with the tasks set.

• Trump's policy is unpredictable, and it is difficult to predict how it will develop. However, it is likely that India will continue to buy Russian oil, despite the duties, because the economic benefits for it are obvious. And it is unlikely that Trump will increase pressure on New Delhi, because the United States is dependent on Indian exports, including for pharmaceutical and technological supplies. And a further deterioration in economic relations with India could hit the Americans themselves hard.

When writing the material, Izvestia talked and took into account the opinions of:

● Professor of the Financial University Alexander Safonov;

● Alexey Kupriyanov, Head of the Center for the Indian Ocean Region, IMEMO RAS;

● Inna Andronova, Dean of the Faculty of Economics at RUDN University;

● Political scientist Georgy Bovt.