Trump has brought India and China closer. Analysis
Due to the policy of US President Donald Trump, India and China, which had disagreements, began to rapidly move closer. Recently, they have agreed to cooperate more actively in ensuring security in the border areas and have moved on to discussing cooperation on many other issues. How Washington forced recent rivals to forget old grudges is in the Izvestia article.
The background of the relationship
Historically, India and China, the two most populous countries in the world, have fiercely competed with each other for leadership in Asia. At the same time, sometimes their competition resulted in open military, albeit local, confrontations. So, in May 2020, in mountainous Ladakh, located between the Himalayas and the Kunlun Range, there were clashes of armies on the line of actual control (LAC), which prompted Beijing and New Delhi to increase the number of troops along the border. Later, in December 2022, new collisions were recorded at the LAC site in the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh. As a result of the incident, soldiers from both sides were injured.
• Nevertheless, in August 2025, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi received Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in New Delhi and held talks with him. The parties reached an agreement to cooperate more actively in ensuring security in the border territories, and also exchanged views on key regional and international issues. Modi noted that he plans to travel to China on August 31 to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit.
US claims
• The rapprochement of the two recent rivals is taking place against the background of pressure exerted on them by US President Donald Trump. The tension in his relations with China has been accumulating for many years for a number of reasons, of which Trump himself particularly highlights the creation of artificial trade barriers for American corporations.
• In the spring of 2025, a new round of trade confrontation between China and the United States began. Trump announced the imposition of duties on products from almost two hundred countries, separately imposing a 34 percent tariff on Chinese goods. In response, Beijing has imposed mirror charges of 34% on all imports from the United States since April 10. After that, Washington raised tariffs for China to 104%, while Beijing increased its counter duties to 84%. The subsequent series of retaliatory measures resulted in cumulative U.S. tariffs reaching 145% and Chinese tariffs reaching 125%.
• On May 12, 2025, Beijing and Washington reached an interim agreement to reduce trade barriers for three months. As part of the agreement, China reduced tariffs on U.S. products from 125% to 10%, and the U.S. side reduced duties on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%. Then the parties extended this decision again for three months.
• The United States also had serious tensions with India, although the nature of the claims was different. New Delhi was accused of protectionist policies that limited the access of American goods to the Indian market, and excessive support for its own manufacturers. An additional factor was India's cooperation with Russia, primarily in the energy sector.
• On August 6, the United States imposed additional trade duties of 25% on India in response to its purchases of Russian oil. After that, the overall level of US tariffs for India will reach 50%. According to Trump, the introduction of such measures is due to the fact that New Delhi continues to purchase oil from Russia directly or through intermediaries.
Changing positions
• Trump's economic policy, especially the introduction of new tariffs against China and India, has significantly influenced the transformation of their relations. For a long time, Beijing and New Delhi have been in a state of serious disagreement based on territorial disputes and historical competition. However, pressure from the United States is gradually changing the balance of power. For China, the key task was to mitigate the effects of US duties, which have hit industry and export-oriented companies. India has come under pressure for cooperation with Russia, which has made its economy more vulnerable to external risks.
• In such circumstances, both Asian countries began to look for new opportunities to compensate for losses and build alternative economic channels. Joint projects, previously perceived as difficult due to mutual distrust, have become the subject of negotiations at the highest level. Beijing has increased its attention to the Indian market as a promising destination for investment and exports. In turn, New Delhi began to consider China as a possible partner capable of mitigating pressure from Washington. As a result, there has been a tendency towards gradual convergence based on the need to adapt to the changing global environment.
• Trump's foreign economic policy has actually pushed India and China to find common ground in economics and politics. These processes have affected areas such as energy, trade, infrastructure initiatives, and participation in regional organizations. In the face of external pressure, joint interests began to be perceived as more important than previous disputes.
However, there remains a risk that external pressure from the United States may cause caution and unwillingness of India and China to pursue deep integration of economic relations. In general, there is a possibility of real cooperation, especially in practical areas where the interests of the parties coincide. However, its scale is limited by the complexity of political and strategic relations. Beijing and New Delhi will balance national interests and global economic risks.
When writing the material, Izvestia talked and took into account the opinions of:
- Dmitry Drobnitsky, an American political scientist;
- Vladimir Vasiliev, Chief Researcher at the Institute of the USA and Canada.
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