With full dedication: Russians have increased their credit appetites again
Russians have increased their credit appetites again. The total amount of loans increased by 175 billion rubles, follows from the data of the Central Bank, which was analyzed by Izvestia. This is the maximum value since September last year. In addition, mortgages have a record annual increase of 177 billion. The impetus was given by the Central Bank's rate cut, first to 20%, and then to 18%, the recovery in consumer activity, as well as fears of rising housing prices. Whether this can negate the Central Bank's efforts to cool the market is in the Izvestia article.
Why did Russians start actively taking out loans
Russians began to actively take out loans — the total amount of loans to the population increased by 175 billion rubles. This is a record increase since September 2024, according to data from the Central Bank, which was analyzed by Izvestia. This indicator increases every time citizens apply for a new loan, and decreases as the debt is repaid.
In addition, since June last year, housing mortgage lending (HLS) has grown by a record 177 billion rubles, according to the regulator.
The main reason for this dynamic is the softening of the Central Bank's signals. First, the regulator lowered the key rate by 1 percentage point on June 6 and then by another 2 percentage points in July, to 18%. This reason is indicated by the market players interviewed by Izvestia — VTB banks, Absolut, Dom.RF" and "Renaissance", — so do the experts.
"Against the background of a reduction in the key interest rate and the expected further easing of monetary policy, people perceive the current moment as convenient for solving deferred financial tasks: buying household appliances, a car or an apartment," explained Fyodor Sidorov, a private investor and founder of the School of Practical Investment.
Russians have increased their credit appetites, despite the fact that interest rates in banks remained at extremely high levels. Real market mortgage rates averaged 24% in July, said independent expert Andrey Barkhota. For consumer loans, they were about 33%.
Banks have confirmed the growing demand for loans from customers. In July, the volume of loans issued by Dom Bank.Russian Federation" mortgages increased 1.6 times by June, and the number of families who improved their living conditions increased 1.5 times. Thus, the result in July exceeded the average monthly volume of loans by almost two times since the beginning of the year, said Alexey Kosyakov, Deputy Chairman of the bank's board.
Alexey Silkin, Head of Renaissance Bank's Credit Product Development and Promotion Department, also noted that the bank's approval rate increased by 20% over the past quarter.
VTB's press service also noted a certain revival in demand for retail loans in the market. They attribute this to the improvement of loan conditions in the largest banks in recent years.
The growth in demand for mortgages last month was recorded by Vitaly Kostyukevich, Director of Absolut Bank's Retail products department. According to him, the number of applications in July increased by 21% compared to June, and in August it jumped by another 11% compared to July.
Izvestia also asked the Central Bank about the reason for such a surge in lending.
Will lending growth continue and what risks does it carry?
Another reason for the growth is that the conditions of inflationary pressure and the expectation of further price increases affect the population as a psychological factor, which prefers to take out loans now, fixing current prices, said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
Housing prices are also rising, which encourages people to apply for loans now, Absolut Bank noted.
In addition, August – September is a period when citizens actively make large purchases and take out loans for household needs, including those related to preparing children for the school year, Vladimir Chernov noted.
This was superimposed on the effect of pent-up demand after a long period of extremely high key interest rates. And it always carries risks, in particular the threat of a new credit crackdown, said Alexey Tarapovsky, founder of Anderida Financial Group. High demand reduces the effectiveness of the "cautious easing" policy, as part of the regulator's efforts can be offset, Vladimir Chernov agreed. However, if such signs appear, the Central Bank will take the necessary measures, he added.
Due to such surges, the level of creditworthiness of the population is also growing, Andrei Barkhota is sure. According to him, the unevenness in the growth of workload is especially increasing: for less well-off citizens, this indicator is increasing faster.
By the end of the year, experts expect a further increase in the loan portfolio of the population. According to Vladimir Chernov, it may increase by 10% in annual terms. Mortgages will continue to make the largest contribution. In addition, as the expected reduction in the key rate increases, demand for consumer loans will receive an additional boost, he concluded.
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