Interest rates under pressure: the microloan market is facing tough changes
In the autumn, a bill will be submitted to the State Duma to reduce the maximum overpayment on microloans from 130 to 100% per annum, the staff of the State Duma Committee on the financial Market told Izvestia. The measures promise to protect borrowers, but market participants warn that the consequences may be contradictory. The draft law is designed to limit the growth of the debt burden and help solve the problem of the so-called debt spiral. However, the discussion of the document is causing a lively discussion: experts disagree on how much the new rules will really help citizens and how they will affect the legal market of microfinance organizations (MFIs). Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
The new bar: 100% instead of 130
Currently, people who take out microloans can overpay interest and penalties up to 130% of the loan amount. The new initiative of parliamentarians is designed to protect citizens from inflated interest rates and prevent them from falling into a debt spiral.
— The bill provides for measures to prevent high levels of creditworthiness among citizens. None of these measures will push MFOs or borrowers into the shadow segment," Anatoly Aksakov, chairman of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market, told Izvestia.
He explained that the restriction would not radically affect the market: organizations would be able to adjust deadlines or rates, taking advantage of the reduced cost of funding. Mandatory breaks between loans and a limit on the number of expensive loans will also be an important innovation. Starting in 2027, each borrower will be able to take out only one micro-loan with a full loan value above 100% per annum, the deputy noted.
The regulator generally supports the new restrictions and focuses on combating aggressive practices.
According to the Bank of Russia, individual companies have up to 70% of their portfolio formed by re—crediting customers - when old debts are paid off with new ones. "The restrictions imposed will not allow these companies to continue this policy. If they do not rebuild, they will have to leave the market," the Central Bank's press service emphasizes.
The agency recognizes that some of the players may go into the shadows, but at the same time, measures to control illegal lending are being strengthened, and the list of "black" firms is regularly updated.
Supporters of restrictions are confident that the norm primarily protects low-income segments of the population.
"In my opinion, reducing the debt limit, especially for microloans, will have a positive impact on a socially vulnerable group of citizens," says Svetlana Maksimova, Financial Commissioner of the Russian Federation.
According to her, in order to achieve the effect, it is necessary to inform borrowers about the right to appeal to the financial ombudsman, who helps to repay overpayments and defend their rights.
Maximova notes that the number of citizens' complaints about MFIs is growing: in the first half of 2025, their number tripled compared to last year. However, against the background of the total volume, their number is still insignificant, which indicates a low awareness of customers.
Banking community: cautious optimism
Major players in the financial sector believe that the effect of the innovation will not appear immediately.
— The effect of the proposed regulation can be assessed only after the start of the application of the new standards. But we believe that the planned changes will not become a factor in the growth of the shadow market. With a high degree of confidence, it is possible to predict a decrease in the creditworthiness of the population," said Alexander Abramov, head of the Legal Department of the Association of Banks of Russia.
He added that without parallel improvement of financial literacy, regulatory measures will not work fully.
The voice of microfinance business
However, there is criticism from within the industry. The MIR SRO believes that the new law is redundant, because the regulator already has tools to control the debt burden. "The need for borrowed funds is great, and we see risks of clients moving to illegal lenders," the organization said. At the same time, delinquency is really decreasing in the legal segment: the NPL index of 90+ has reached a minimum in recent quarters.
A similar position is expressed by the National Association of Microfinance Market Participants (NAUMIR).:
— This will accelerate the exodus of some MFIs from the market and strengthen the trend towards the growth of shadow lending. A significant number of borrowers are willing to use the services of illegal immigrants with a price difference of only 7%.
Analysts: the market won't collapse, but it will shrink
However, in general, financial sector experts do not expect a catastrophe.
— In the next two years, the market for margin microloans will continue to shrink under the influence of the "one loan in one hand" approach. Therefore, reducing the overpayment to 100% will not lead to the withdrawal of players from the market. The restriction is more likely to reduce the marginality of products for a period of 6 to 12 months," said Vadim Krapp, analyst at the Expert RA agency.
According to him, borrowers will indeed pay less, but companies will compensate for this with additional services, which leaves risks of an increased debt burden.
A number of experts point out that limiting interest rates alone will not solve the root problems.
"Lowering the maximum level to 100% may lead to the withdrawal of some MFIs and the strengthening of the illegal segment. But at the same time, it can reduce overpayments and prevent severe debt traps," says Tatyana Fursova, Associate Professor at MFUA.
A separate point of discussion is related to the behavior of the borrowers themselves.
— With any tightening, there will be MFIs that will find business unprofitable. Some of the clients will go into the shadows. But the real problem is that the population does not keep records of expenses: 61% are limited to a "notebook" or "in their mind". Until this changes, bans will not help, — says the Director General of the Association for the Development of Financial Literacy (under the Central Bank) Elman Mehdiyev.
He adds that the government encourages debt restructuring and even simplified bankruptcy, but without the participation of citizens themselves, the results will be limited.
The main threats
Public activists remind us that illegal creditors remain the weakest link.
— Whatever the maximum bar, practice shows that MFOs excluded from the register continue to operate, but without supervision and rules. Over-indebted citizens are still looking for money and end up with illegal creditors. Fines under the Administrative Code are ridiculous, there is no criminal liability," emphasizes Alexandra Pozharskaya, an expert at the project For Borrowers' Rights.
According to her, it is the gray market that damages the budget and deprives borrowers of the opportunity to challenge bonded conditions.
The problem of credit availability for the poor is also confirmed by academic experts.
Petr Shcherbachenko, Associate Professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, recalled:
— Many turn to MFIs due to lack of access to bank loans. Interest limits alone do not solve the problem. Government support, subsidized products, and massive financial education programs need to be developed.
According to the Central Bank, in the first quarter of 2025, the total portfolio of microloans reached 683 billion rubles, but disbursements decreased for the first time in three years. At the same time, the share of online products and POS loans on marketplaces is growing, which is changing the market structure.
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