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- Add — not subtract: the devaluation of the ruble was called a key risk for the Russian economy
Add — not subtract: the devaluation of the ruble was called a key risk for the Russian economy
The devaluation of the ruble is one of the main risks for Russia's economic policy, according to an analysis by experts from the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The optimal exchange rate for our country is about 92-94 rubles/$, one of the authors of the study, Alexander Shirov, explained to Izvestia. Currently, the Russian national currency is worth about 80 per dollar. However, the government has lifted the requirement for the sale of foreign exchange earnings, because of this, the ruble may weaken significantly by the end of the year. Other risks include an increase in public debt servicing costs above 2% of GDP and a reduction in oil exports due to sanctions. How dangerous this is for the country's economy is in the Izvestia article.
What will happen to the ruble in 2025
The devaluation of the ruble is one of the main risks for Russia's economic policy in the second half of 2025, according to a "Short—term analysis of GDP dynamics" conducted by experts from the Institute of National Economic Forecasting (INP). RAS (Izvestia studied the document). As one of the authors of the material, director of the organization Alexander Shirov, explained to the editorial board, the acceptable exchange rate for our country is 92-94 rubles/$.
The Ministry of Energy told Izvestia that the predictability of the exchange rate is primarily important for the economy.
A three—digit exchange rate makes imports more expensive - in this case, the cost of importing foreign equipment and components increases, explained Alexander Potavin, an analyst at Finam. This, in turn, leads to an increase in inflation, which was already quite high in July — 8.8%.
As a result, the Bank of Russia will again begin to tighten its monetary policy and raise the rate, the expert believes. From October 2024 to June 2025, the regulator kept the key rate at a record level of 21% — only after that it began a series of declines. At the last meeting in July, the Central Bank lowered the rate to 18%.
The escalation of inflation and an excessively rigid PREP leads to instability of investment processes and complicates financial business planning, Alexander Potavin believes.
However, the government is still interested in a relatively weak ruble — the authorities have set the exchange rate at 94.3 per dollar in the updated financial plan. According to the Central Bank on August 28, it was 80.44 rubles per dollar — since the beginning of the year, the national currency has strengthened by almost a quarter. With the exchange rate below 92 rubles, the revenues of oil and gas exporters decrease and budget revenues decrease, recalled Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
According to the results of the first seven months of 2025, the treasury shortage amounted to about 4.9 trillion rubles against the planned 3.8 trillion for the whole year against the background of declining oil and gas revenues and an excessively strong exchange rate.
Nevertheless, by the end of the year, the exchange rate will average around 88-94 per dollar, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. An important indicator here will be the cancellation of the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings by exporters in mid-August. This decision was made because there is enough currency in the country now. At the same time, the rate will decrease due to this step, said Mikhail Gordienko, Professor of the Department of Finance for Sustainable Development at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
Risks to the economy in 2025
INP RAS experts named other risks for economic policy — they are related to finding a balance between increasing government debt and increasing the cost of servicing it.
According to the financial plan for 2025, the authorities have set the cost of servicing the national debt at 1.5% of GDP. This year, it may turn out to be higher, because when planning the budget last fall, the Ministry of Finance assumed a lower trajectory of the Central Bank's key rate — about 15%, said Olga Belenkaya, head of the macroeconomic analysis department at Finam.
"In general, this level of public debt servicing is considered quite moderate — for comparison, in the United States in 2025-2026 it is expected to be near a record high of 3.2%. In addition, Russia still has a very low level of public debt by world standards — less than 20% of GDP," the expert emphasized.
According to Vladimir Chernov of Freedom Finance Global, government debt is considered moderate to 30-40% of GDP, and the cost of servicing it is up to 2% of GDP.
Olga Belenkaya clarified: if the national debt and the cost of servicing it are growing rapidly, then you have to spend more funds from the treasury on this item, while reducing the financing of the economy and the social sphere. The budget is also becoming more vulnerable to economic shocks, which reduce revenues and may require additional anti-crisis spending, while interest payments on debt need to be made anyway.
Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Finance about what kind of increase in the cost of servicing the national debt they consider critical.
Another risk is associated with fiscal consolidation, that is, with a reduction in treasury spending. As Olga Belenkaya explained, there are two options: reducing both all expenditure items and individual, lower-priority areas. The first case is highly undesirable, because it involves, among other things, a reduction in social benefits.
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov mentioned the second option — it is important to prioritize spending on key areas such as defense, social sphere and technological development. The risks of such a decision are that it will be necessary to postpone the implementation of promising projects, Olga Belenkaya said.
At the same time, there remains a significant danger associated with a possible reduction in exports of oil and petroleum products as a result of the imposition of secondary sanctions by the United States on consumers of Russian hydrocarbons. For example, on August 27, US duties of 50% against New Delhi have already entered into force.
However, the probability of the final termination of purchases of Russian oil by the largest buyers — India and China — is extremely low, said Nikolay Dudchenko, an analyst at Finam. So, New Delhi has already stated that they do not plan to completely abandon raw materials from the Russian Federation.
— Moscow occupies a fairly large volume of the oil import market to both Beijing and New Delhi. At the same time, the share of the Russian Federation is about 17% in China and about 45% in India. Russian raw materials are sold at discounts relative to benchmarks," he explained.
The experts interviewed by Izvestia identified other factors that could slow down our economy. In particular, further isolation from financial markets, as well as a technical recession.
What will support Russia's GDP
In their article, RAS experts have identified factors that, on the contrary, will support economic growth. Among them is the use of opportunities for international cooperation if external conditions do not deteriorate. As Alexander Shirov from the Institute of Applied Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences explained to Izvestia, our relations with the United States, as well as continued cooperation with friendly states, are now on the agenda.
In addition, GDP will be supported by the realization of pent-up demand from well-off groups of the population, as well as the revival of lending. Fairly wealthy households have savings, and if the interest rate is lowered (and therefore the benefits of keeping money in deposits), you can expect more active consumption. Especially in durable goods, such as cars, large machinery, and real estate. This will create an impetus for economic growth in the relevant sectors — trade, services, construction, explained Mikhail Gordienko from Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
Also, the easing of the Central Bank's policy will stimulate the growth of lending, especially for businesses and wealthy groups of the population, Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Finance Global drew attention. This, in turn, leads to an increase in sales and an acceleration in economic growth.
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