The exchange rate is not up to date: will global instability affect the ruble
Even at the beginning of the year, the ruble exchange rate seemed to many to be overvalued. However, according to the results of the first half of the year, the Russian currency not only did not weaken, but also continued to strengthen. At the moment, the dollar exchange rate on the interbank market is about 78.5 rubles, and the yuan on the Moscow Exchange is 10.94 rubles. No fluctuations in the market prevented the ruble from strengthening further in the second quarter, steadily approaching the highs of 2022 and the pre-crisis era. This has a good effect on inflation and a bad effect on the positions of Russian exporters and the budget. Does all this mean that the strong ruble is with us for a long time, and what will affect its course in the future — in the quarterly survey of Izvestia experts.
The ruble continued to strengthen in the second quarter, regardless of external developments and macroeconomics. Although talks about a truce in Ukraine have stopped, the price of oil has remained below last year's levels for a long time, and the economy has shown all signs of slowing down. Nevertheless, the Russian currency has not slowed down. Against the yuan, for example, the ruble has grown by 5% in these three months. The growth against the dollar was about the same.
Overall, this is a rather unexpected situation. A huge number of investors have taken short positions in the ruble, anticipating its inevitable weakening. This did not happen. Both conjunctural and fundamental, long-term factors were mentioned: from the lack of foreign currency investment instruments to a reduction in investments and loans to Russia and, consequently, a drop in non-resident interest income (and, consequently, demand for foreign currency). The situation continues to be extremely unusual, beyond the usual for Russians — it is all the more interesting to assess the prospects of the Russian currency. Izvestia questioned the experts.
"There won't be any big changes"
Yulia Khandoshko, CEO of the European broker Mind Money
Over the past month, we have seen strong volatility in the oil market and serious instability in the world. However, if you look at the ruble exchange rate, it seems that he is "not aware" of what is happening.
What is the reason? Today, the key factor influencing the exchange rate is not market logic, but rather government policy. In particular, we are talking about a mechanism for the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings. It is through him that the government is able to influence the course. And this situation is not likely to change in the coming quarter.
Then there are two opposite vectors. On the one hand, there are exporters who would not mind seeing the exchange rate closer to 100 rubles per dollar. In addition, it seems that the National Welfare Fund (NWF) has also developed a demand for a weaker ruble by the end of the year.
On the other hand, the government has to take into account social factors. And they are quite obvious: we have just begun to observe a decrease in inflation and inflation expectations. And if we allow a sharp weakening of the ruble now, all this will soon be nullified. Therefore, in the current situation, without some serious change in the political situation, including in the context of its own and sanctions pressure (and such changes are not yet visible), it is most likely not worth expecting a significant change in course.
Thus, in the coming quarter, it is worth focusing on the fact that the exchange rate will remain approximately in the current range. This is not an economic forecast, but rather a political one. Moreover, the influence of external economic factors on the Russian market has been reduced to zero.
"Pressure on the ruble will increase"
Pavel Biryukov, Chief Economist at Gazprombank
In our opinion, the pressure on the ruble may increase in the third quarter of 2025. Firstly, this may be facilitated by a correction in global energy prices due to a reduction in geopolitical risks (the price of Brent crude oil from $80 per barrel tends to $65). Secondly, since February, there has been a smooth recovery in import supplies (from $29.9 billion per month to $33.1 billion).
Against this background, the strengthening of the ruble was possible mainly due to the tight monetary policy. Given the expected reduction in the key rate (to 18% by the end of the quarter), as well as the potential recovery in demand for the currency after the drawdown in April–May (according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation), support for the ruble may weaken by the end of the third quarter of 2025.
According to our estimates, the support factors (tight PREP and reduced demand for foreign currency) may weaken in the second half of the year. This may lead to a recovery of the ruble closer to stable levels: the ruble is likely to reach levels of 91-93/dollar (12.5–12.7/yuan) by the end of the third quarter and the range of 96-99/dollar (13.4–13.7/yuan) by the end of the year.
"The season of demand for currency"
Dmitry Vishnevsky, analyst at Digital Broker
In the next quarter, the ruble exchange rate will be determined by several key factors. First, the dynamics of oil prices will put pressure on export earnings with a lag of several months, reducing the supply of currency. Secondly, the Central Bank's decision on the key rate (currently 20%): the expected decrease in July–August may reduce the attractiveness of the ruble for the carry trade and weaken the exchange rate. Thirdly, the seasonal increase in demand for foreign currency due to summer holidays and the recovery of imports can create an imbalance in the market. Geopolitics will have an additional impact: new sanctions or escalation of conflicts may increase capital outflow, while softening escalatory rhetoric may temporarily support the ruble.
According to the results of the third quarter of 2025, the dollar-ruble exchange rate is expected to be in the range of 78-80 rubles, which is close to the current level due to active sales of the currency by exporters (up to 90% of revenue) and the high key rate of the Central Bank (20%). However, by the end of the year, the ruble may weaken to 100-105 rubles due to lower oil prices, increased imports and a possible softening of the DKP. For the yuan, we also expect the ruble to weaken and set the forecast at 13-13.5 rubles by the end of the year.
"Strengthening is a temporary phenomenon"
Alexander Potavin, Analyst at FG Finam
We believe that the most important factors that will affect the ruble exchange rate in the third quarter of 2025 will be the following:
- Dynamics of the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The lower the rate, the weaker the ruble exchange rate will be;
- The situation of negotiations and establishment of peace in Ukraine and external sanctions;
- The volume of purchase and sale of currency by the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank;
- The volume of currency sales by exporters.
We believe that the strengthening of the ruble in the first half of 2025 is a temporary phenomenon. At current oil prices (Brent — $67/barrel), the exchange rate should be significantly weaker (around 95-100 rubles per dollar). The balance in the foreign exchange market can quickly swing in the other direction if the factors that led to the strengthening of the ruble change.
If the Central Bank of the Russian Federation quickly reduces its key rate, it will make investments in rubles less profitable. The released mass of money may flow into the foreign exchange market, which will create additional demand for the currency and affect the exchange rate. Breaking the trend from strengthening to weakening the ruble will attract speculators here who will trade from buying currency for rubles, and not vice versa, as we saw in the first half of the year.
In the second half of 2025, we expect that the stronger the exchange rate against the ruble increases, the greater the demand for it within Russia. We believe that in the future of the third quarter, the USD/RUB pair will trade in the range of 77-86 rubles. And by the end of the year, the dollar exchange rate may rise to 93-95 rubles. We are likely to see a more active depreciation of the ruble in 2026.
As for the yuan, we believe that the process of ruble depreciation will be shifted closer to the fourth quarter of 2025, and the yuan exchange rate will remain stable in the summer. We expect that the trading range for the yuan/ruble pair in the third quarter will be 11.0–11.9 rubles, and by the end of the year the yuan exchange rate may rise to 12.5.
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