Karol and the crown: what will lead to a new quarrel between Ukraine and Poland
At the end of August, relations between Ukraine and Poland deteriorated. Warsaw is preparing to equate Bandera symbols with fascist ones, as well as to remove Ukrainian refugees from the allowance, many of whom now risk being left without benefits. In Kiev, in response, they threaten their neighbors with certain "consequences." Izvestia investigated the situation.
Concert with flags
A major scandal broke out in Poland over the activities of Ukrainian nationalists. The reason was a concert by singer Max Korzh, who is popular in many post-Soviet countries. More than 60,000 people came to his speech in Warsaw, and at some point the crowd not only jumped fences and started fighting, but also unfurled flags of the OUN-UPA (an organization recognized as extremist in Russia and banned).
In Poland, this structure is considered responsible for the Volyn massacre of 1943-1944, in which more than 100,000 people died at the hands of Ukrainian nationalists. Accordingly, politicians of all persuasions, as well as ordinary users of social networks, demanded the immediate punishment of hooligans. It is known that after the concert, the police detained 57 Ukrainians, and at the end of August, the deportation of these people to their homeland began.
The incident overlapped with a general change in attitudes towards Ukrainians. According to opinion polls, two years ago in Poland, 51% of residents felt sympathy for refugees from a neighboring country, while only 17% felt antipathy. This year, only 30% have a positive attitude, 38% expressed dislike. Defiant behavior, dumping in the labor market, and rising rental prices are among the reasons.
As a result, Warsaw started talking not only about the deportation of the direct perpetrators of the incident, but also about the expulsion of Ukrainian men in general. The right-wing Confederation party said that the best way to help the neighboring state would be to return people of military age home. Justice Minister Waldemar Zhurek stressed that Ukrainian offenders should be sent home, because Kiev has difficulties with mobilization.
Interestingly, the Ukrainian ambassador to Warsaw, Vasyl Bodnar, did not stand up for the deportees after the concert. According to him, Polish law enforcement agencies must do everything to punish the perpetrators. "If anyone felt offended, I apologize. I am grateful to all the Poles who have helped and are helping Ukrainians. I sincerely thank you from the bottom of my heart and apologize once again," he said.
From the president to the ploughman
Additional outrage in Poland was caused by an act of vandalism in the village of Domostav, where a monument to the victims of the Volyn massacre was desecrated in mid-August. Unknown people painted the monument with OUN-UPA slogans and painted a red and black flag. Later, the police detained the vandal, who turned out to be a 17-year-old Ukrainian. He was sent into custody for three months.
Polish officials did not hide their indignation. Prime Minister Donald Tusk urged Kiev not to allow provocations. "Anti—Ukrainian sentiments should not be allowed to spread, at the same time, the Ukrainian authorities should ensure that Ukrainians do not make anti-Polish gestures," he stressed.
Defense Minister Vladislav Kosinyak-Kamysh has promised that Warsaw will block Ukraine's European integration if it does not cooperate on the issue of the Volyn massacre. "If Ukraine does not recognize the Volyn genocide, if there is no exhumation and commemoration, then it has no chance of joining the EU. Cases where the good name of Poland is trampled on or attempts are made to glorify Bandera are unacceptable," he noted.
The new president of Poland, Karol Nawrocki, spoke out more harshly than others. First, he suggested equating Bandera's ideology with the fascist one. According to him, to do this, it is necessary to amend the law on the Institute of National Memory, and he promised to prepare amendments in the near future. "I believe that we should say stop Bandera and introduce these symbols into the criminal code," the head of state stressed.
President of the Republic of Poland Karol Nawrocki
In addition, he vetoed the law on payments to Ukrainian refugees. This document was adopted in the country in 2022 and is being extended every six months — the current version is valid until September 30 and involves the payment of a monthly allowance of 800 zloty ($200) per child to Ukrainian immigrants. Navrotsky explained that the money should not be allocated to all refugees, but only to those who got a job.
It is noteworthy that his main opponent, Prime Minister Donald Tusk, agreed with the president's initiative. "The Cabinet will not argue. The new bill is almost ready," the head of government said.
Finally, Navrotsky called for changing the law on citizenship so that supporters of Bandera ideology could not obtain a Polish passport. According to him, the required period of stay in the country to obtain citizenship should be increased from three to ten years, as well as tougher penalties for illegal border crossing.
The Ukrainian authorities have not officially responded to these initiatives, but unofficially threaten Warsaw with some consequences. "Any politicized decisions to equate Ukrainian symbols with Nazi and Communist ones can provoke an increase in negative sentiments in Ukrainian society and will require a response from our side," a source at the Ukrainian foreign ministry told reporters.
A major scandal also occurred on Polish television. Ukrainian journalist Vitaly Mazurenko said on live TV that Karol Navrotsky was not behaving like a president, but "like a prison plowman." The head of the office of the Polish president, Zbigniew Bogutsky, demanded that Mazurenko be punished and that Ukrainians be deprived of their acquired Polish citizenship.
What the experts say
Bogdan Bezpalko, a political scientist and member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation, cites several reasons for the conflict.
— Firstly, a large number of Ukrainians infected with nationalist ideology have entered the territory of a neighboring country. They behave even more defiantly at a party than at home, and many find themselves in a privileged position. For Poles who consider the Volyn massacre a tragedy and curse Bandera and Shukhevych, all this is extremely painful," he explains.
According to him, the second reason concerns the economy. The fact is that for more than three years, huge sums by Polish standards have been going to help Ukraine. Internally, migrants occupy many native Polish niches. The third point is related to the fighting. According to Bezpalko, in Warsaw, they hear complaints from the Ukrainian authorities about the difficulties with mobilization, while they see healthy Ukrainian men on their streets who also behave in conflict.
At the same time, the expert believes that there will not be a serious gap between the countries.
— Targeted deportations and the prohibition of nationalist symbols are possible, but nothing more. Ukraine will continue to receive Western weapons through Poland and even trade with Western countries. For Warsaw, a proxy war with Russia is much more important than a showdown with the Ukrainians, in such circumstances decisions will be rhetorical and populist," he says.
Oleg Nemensky, a leading expert at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, says that Poland has two opinions about historical and ideological disputes with Ukraine.
— According to one, it is necessary to be patient now, to stop clarifying relations for the sake of confrontation with Russia. According to the second, now is the right time to resolve the accumulated issues, because Ukraine is weakened, heavily dependent on Polish support and may make concessions. The new president, Karol Navrotsky, adheres to the second position," he explains.
At the same time, the interlocutor adds that real concessions to Warsaw are unlikely to be achieved.
— In Kiev, Poland is not considered a key state. They believe that support for Ukraine is being determined in Brussels, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, and Warsaw is forced to follow in their footsteps anyway. In addition, Zelensky will not go into conflict with Ukrainian right-wing militants. Actually, because of his fear of these people, he refused to implement the Minsk agreements at the time, and he will not agree to make concessions to Poland," Nemensky believes.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
