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- Stuffing and suggestions: US pressure will not change Russia's position on the Ukrainian crisis
Stuffing and suggestions: US pressure will not change Russia's position on the Ukrainian crisis
Contacts with Witkoff will show the real position of the United States, unlike loud statements from the White House, Grigory Karasin, head of the Federation Council's international affairs committee, told Izvestia. Trump announced the visit of his special envoy on the eve of the expiration of the "deadline for the settlement" of the Ukrainian conflict and the introduction of new anti-Russian sanctions. Nevertheless, Moscow's position remains the same. As Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized at a meeting with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko, Russia's main goal is to eradicate the causes of the crisis and ensure its security, and the conditions announced back in June 2024 are still in force. Meanwhile, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing along the entire line of contact, and the town of Chasov Yar in the DPR was liberated last week. Izvestia investigated whether Washington's pressure could influence the course of the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations.
Will the threat of sanctions affect Moscow's position
In the coming days, on August 8, Donald Trump's new 10-day ultimatum for resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict expires. In the absence of progress in this area, the US president intends to impose sanctions against the Russian Federation. Earlier, the head of the White House threatened to impose import tariffs of 100% on Russian goods, as well as secondary tariffs for countries that buy Russian oil, gas and other energy resources.
— In foreign policy and, in particular, in diplomacy, it is always better to be less emotional and more rational. Therefore, all the emotions that have now captured the media space with all sorts of statements and references to big names, to Trump, should be taken calmly," Grigory Karasin, head of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, told Izvestia.
The policy of threats is unlikely to affect Moscow, which consistently adheres to its position, unlike the White House, and does not change the conditions for ending the conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin recalled them on August 1 during a meeting with Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko in Valaam. Moscow's main goal remains to root out the causes of the crisis and ensure Russia's security. Including through a long-term world without time constraints. The conditions that were announced back in June 2024 remain in force, Vladimir Putin stressed. Among them is the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the four territories that became part of the Russian Federation, as well as Kiev's refusal to join NATO.
It is possible to achieve a peaceful settlement through a thorough dialogue and not in public, but in the silence of the negotiation process, Vladimir Putin noted. Alexander Lukashenko added that in order to achieve peace, Trump should take a more delicate approach to the settlement process, rather than issuing ultimatums. According to the president of Belarus, he openly asked the US representatives who had recently been in Minsk to tell Trump to "act carefully", and then it would be possible to reach an agreement.
Negotiations between the delegations of Russia and Ukraine with the participation of representatives of Turkey at the Chiragan Palace in Istanbul, July 23
Trump recently announced the visit of his special envoy Steve Witkoff to Russia. Since the beginning of the dialogue between Moscow and Washington, he has already visited three times: on February 11, March 13 and April 11. By the way, after his first visit, Putin and Trump called on the phone the very next day, and after the last one, not immediately, but direct Russian-Ukrainian talks began in Istanbul.
— There will be contacts with him that will show that in fact, not for the public space, they mean the United States of America, what is their attitude to the absolutely destructive role that the EU countries are currently playing, tightly holding the Zelensky regime in their hands. This will all be discussed. I think that after these contacts, we will at least find out everything in substance. Therefore, we must have patience, calmness and give in to emotions less," Grigory Karasin added.
The Trump administration is trying to understand how flexible Russia's position is, and setting deadlines for agreements, reducing them, and media hype are part of the standard practice of putting pressure on the negotiating side, says Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor of political theory at MGIMO, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia.
— There are threats of expanding sanctions, intensifying NATO military activity on the border with Russia, and creating new mechanisms to support Ukraine. Some of this can be applied if the media pressure campaign does not have an effect. To increase the pressure, some accusations against Russia are possible, including hacker attacks," Ivan Loshkarev told Izvestia.
The rhetorical escalation of Washington's position is the result of compromise and synchronization of the positions of the Senate and the President of the United States. Just three months ago, the senators, in defiance of Trump's spring rhetoric friendly towards Russia, were ready to adopt a bill on tariffs of 500% and guaranteed to overcome the potential veto of the American leader with a bipartisan majority, noted American scientist, Candidate of political Sciences, HSE analyst Egor Toropov.
"Now the Senate is preparing to go on vacation, returning the foreign policy mace to the president, who has warmed to the idea of increasing pressure on Russia — in the form of smaller, but still quite revealing tariffs and sanctions," the expert believes. — At the same time, Trump openly admits that they are useless against the Russian Federation, and therefore their rhetorical edge is still not being put into practice under various pretexts, deadlines and deadlines. Trump uses threats as a pressure tool to accelerate dialogue.
To this end, Witkoff can bring lucrative cooperation offers as a counterweight, the opportunity for which will open up after the "deal" desired by the Americans in Ukraine, Ivan Loshkarev believes. However, one should not attach excessive importance to the visit of the special envoy (officially for the Middle East). As the process of resolving the Ukrainian crisis, as well as Israel's conflicts with Hamas and Iran, shows, Witkoff's political and diplomatic weight raises certain doubts.
— Of course, it is necessary to have a dialogue with him and with other representatives of the United States. A return to a positive attitude is possible, but now the ball is on the side of the United States. We are by no means going to abandon a mutually respectful dialogue," concluded Oleg Karpovich, Vice—rector of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry.
How are the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine progressing?
The negotiation process between Russia and Ukraine has so far stopped at the third round, which took place on July 23 in Istanbul. The parties discussed the positions set out in the draft memoranda and agreed on military and civilian exchanges. Vladimir Putin positively assessed the results of the meeting.
— Well, how can you not positively assess the fact that hundreds of people have returned to their homeland? This is positive. <...> For humanitarian reasons, as you know, we have handed over [to Kiev] thousands of bodies of dead Ukrainian soldiers. In response, we received several dozen [bodies] of our guys who laid down their lives for their Homeland. And isn't that a positive thing? Of course, this is positive," the head of state said.
The transfer of 1,000 bodies of Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers to Ukraine in accordance with the Russian-Ukrainian agreements reached earlier in Istanbul on July 17.
In addition, the Russian side proposed the creation of three settlement working groups to negotiate "without a camera." By the way, Ukraine reacted positively to this proposal, but the groups have not yet started working, the president noted. Vladimir Putin added that Moscow is ready to wait if Ukraine believes that now is not the time for negotiations, commenting on Vladimir Zelensky's statements about the need to wait for "regime change in the Russian Federation."
However, given the situation on the battlefield, Kiev doesn't have much time left. The Russian military is conducting offensive operations along the entire line of contact: in the border zone, in the DPR, and in the LPR, as well as in the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions.
— We recently heard that a new settlement, Chasov Yar, has been taken. A fairly large settlement. We have already heard that "this is not true." I can say that this is completely true," Putin clarified.
The fighting in Chasovoy Yar lasted more than a year. The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to about 7.5 thousand soldiers, 11 tanks, 55 armored vehicles and 160 guns of field artillery and mortars, the Russian Defense Ministry said. The proof of the success of the Russian Armed Forces may also be the fact that unfriendly countries that had previously planned to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia on the battlefield are now trying to at least stop the advance of Russian troops, the president noted. "Either with promises of a good life, or with some kind of threats, or with the rearmament and resupply of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," the head of state added. Earlier, Donald Trump announced an increase in military supplies to Ukraine, including Patriot complexes, but at the expense of European funds. A number of countries, including Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands, are already actively considering the proposed initiative.
The work of MLRS "Grad" in the area of the settlement of Chasov Yar DNR
At the same time, Russia has something to respond to. The first serial Oreshnik complex has already been produced and placed at the disposal of the troops. Positions for its placement are currently being prepared, and the issue of supplies to Belarus will be closed by the end of the year, Vladimir Putin said. Earlier, Moscow and Minsk agreed to deploy a missile system in the republic in the second half of 2025. For the first time, the Oreshnik medium-range hypersonic missile was used on November 21, 2024 to strike a military-industrial facility in the Ukrainian Dnieper. Then, in an address to the nation, Vladimir Putin explained that this was done "in response to the use of American and British long-range weapons."
Nevertheless, Moscow does not intend to escalate the conflict. Russia is counting on the fourth round, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, who participated in the negotiations, told Izvestia. The position of Ukrainians on the continuation of direct contacts and their content will probably depend on the rhetoric of their Western partners.
"As soon as they start criticizing official Kiev, the position regarding negotiations becomes more constructive, but when voices of total support and new criticism of Russia are heard, Ukraine's position becomes radicalized," political analyst Denis Denisov said in a conversation with Izvestia. — At the moment, there are no prerequisites for waiting for the fourth round of negotiations in Istanbul in the near future. There are too many unresolved issues, such as the political plane in general, possible scenarios for a cease-fire, and the continuation of exchanges.
The recent scandal with NABU and SAP has once again highlighted the policy with an eye to the USA and the EU. The law on limiting the powers of anti-corruption bodies, established in 2015 at the request of Ukraine's partners, which entered into force on July 23, was expected to provoke a sharp reaction from the West. According to media reports, the EU has even suspended financial assistance to Kiev. Warnings from Brussels, as well as the protests that engulfed Ukrainian cities, forced Zelensky to restore the powers of the NABU and SAP, but with the caveat that they are now awaiting verification by the SBU.
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