Three more Western countries want to recognize Palestine. What does this mean?

Recently, Western countries have begun to actively express their intention to recognize Palestine. Canada, Great Britain, France and Malta are expected to take this diplomatic step in September. The United States continues to oppose this, but it has not actively protested against the decision of its allies. Why the West has become indifferent to the fate of Palestine and how its intentions will affect the situation in the Gaza Strip — in the analysis of Izvestia.

How do countries recognize Palestine

• The State of Palestine was proclaimed in 1988 by the Palestine Liberation Organization. The country declared its sovereignty over the West Bank of the Jordan River and the Gaza Strip, while simultaneously declaring recognition of Israel's right to exist. In the same year, Palestine was recognized by more than 60 countries, including the USSR, the countries of the Eastern Bloc and China.

• Over time, new states joined the recognition of Palestine, and by 2023, when the Hamas attack on Israel took place, there were already 137 such countries. In 2011, Palestine joined UNESCO, and the following year it received observer state status in the UN General Assembly. Despite this, Western countries practically did not recognize Palestine. The United States is at the head of this policy, influencing its allies on this issue.

• However, the situation has changed since 2023. The fighting in the Gaza Strip by Israel gradually began to be rejected by its former allies. In support of the Palestinians, Ireland, Norway, Spain, Slovenia, and Mexico have announced recognition of their state.

• Now that a full-fledged humanitarian crisis has unfolded in the Gaza Strip and there is a threat of famine, Canada, Great Britain, France and Malta are already talking about recognizing Palestine. The prime ministers of the first two announced their preliminary intention to recognize Palestine under certain conditions, and French President Emmanuel Macron promised to resolve the issue in September without any conditions. When all the legal formalities are completed, the number of countries recognizing Palestine will exceed 150.

Why do countries recognize Palestine

The fact that Canada and some European countries are concerned about the status of Palestine is not caused solely by humanitarian considerations. The crisis in the Gaza Strip is not the only one in the world that is unfolding right now. Armed conflicts that affect civilians also occur in Sudan, Mali, and Haiti, but they do not attract as much attention as the Middle East, which is of particular political importance.

• First of all, countries that have declared recognition of Palestine use this technique to express disagreement with the policies of US President Donald Trump. Both Canada and Europe have enough claims against the American leader, from economic to ideological. Trump demands a lot from his Western allies, but offers them little in return. At the same time, society in both the United States and Europe is increasingly sympathetic to the Palestinians. Neither Ottawa, Brussels, nor London see any reason to align themselves with Trump on the issue of Israel, as this does not bring them any benefit, but only exacerbates internal contradictions and meets with misunderstanding on the part of voters.

The global burden: The Palestine Conference divided the West

Russia supports the implementation of the two-State solution

However, the expert community admits that this step may be aimed at making Israel perceive it as an invitation to peace talks and a way out of the conflict. Tel Aviv has been unsuccessfully fighting Hamas in the Gaza Strip for almost two years and is only exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in the enclave. The Israeli leadership cannot refuse to retaliate for the 2023 terrorist attack, but it is becoming more and more costly for it to continue fighting, both financially and reputationally. Although the gesture of Western countries will not directly cause any changes in Israel's position, it will at least be a signal of support if Tel Aviv decides to change tactics.

How the United States reacts

• The United States, to the surprise of many observers, did not overreact to the recognition of Palestine. Trump only hinted that this would make it more difficult for Canada to negotiate a trade agreement, although by that time investors no longer had any hopes that the United States would give in to its northern neighbor and abandon the imposition of tariffs. Moreover, Trump himself recently acknowledged the famine in the Gaza Strip for the first time during the escalation in the Middle East and refuted the words of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who denies the crisis in the enclave.

• The US position was voiced by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. He stated that the recognition of Palestine does not affect anything and will not make any difference. Rubio pointed out that none of the countries that made this diplomatic move would eventually participate in the direct creation of a Palestinian state. The Secretary of State stressed that it would be possible only with Israel's consent. Separately, Rubio noted that the states that have recognized Palestine have not announced any plans for its governance, structure, or security.

• Therefore, Washington did not protest the decision to recognize Palestine. It will not change the realities on earth, and it will not be supported by anything in the near future. The adoption of a relevant resolution by the UN Security Council could influence this issue, but the United States has the right to veto it, which will be more important than any negative comments by officials.

• At the same time, a violent reaction from the United States would be perceived by Israel as a manifestation of support and approval of actions in the Gaza Strip. It would be a positive signal for the war party in the Netanyahu government, which Washington avoids in every possible way. Short-term support was enough for him during the acute conflict between Israel and Iran, and the Trump administration no longer wants to encourage and even more so provoke Tel Aviv to escalate in the Gaza Strip.

Promised freedom: Macron decided to recognize Palestine

Other European leaders have also considered the initiative.

• It is especially worth noting that the actual recognition has not yet taken place. A number of countries have only announced their intention to formalize it legally at the UN General Assembly in September. By then, the situation in the Middle East may have changed so much that they will have to abandon their plans. Until then, the statements of Canada and European countries should be considered only as an attempt to exert diplomatic pressure and create an information background, and certainly not as an intention to improve the lives of the Palestinians.

When writing the material, Izvestia took into account the opinions of:

• Andrey Ontikov, an orientalist and author of the Telegram channel "Eastern Gate";
• Mikhail Sinelnikov-Orishak, an American political scientist;
• the American political scientist Vladimir Mozhegov.