Falling degree: Alcohol sales have fallen by almost 15%
Alcohol sales in Russia decreased by almost 15% in the first six months. The drop was demonstrated by the retail sale of strong alcohol. Sales of vodka decreased by 6%, cognac — by 11% at once. First of all, such dynamics is associated with an increase in minimum retail prices for alcohol, which turned out to be quite significant, the experts surveyed believe. At the same time, the excise tax rate will only increase in the next two years, which is alarming for market players. Why sales of intoxicants are falling is in the Izvestia article.
Free fall
Sales of alcoholic beverages in Russia (excluding beer, beer drinks, cider, poire and mead) decreased in the first half of the year by 14.4%, to 98.76 million decaliters (dal). This was reported in Rosalokoltabakcontrol, referring to the data of the Honest Sign labeling system.
The sharpest decrease was shown by the trade in low—alcohol products - sales fell by 89.1%, to 966.5 thousand dal.
Retail sales of strong alcohol also showed a decrease. Sales of alcoholic beverages with a strength of over 9%, in particular, decreased by 3.5%, to 57.56 million dal. Retail sales of vodka decreased by 6% to 35.55 million dal compared to the same period last year. Cognac sales immediately fell by 11%, to 6.2 million dal. However, the volume of alcoholic beverages sold increased to 8.8 million dal (+ 13.1%).
Beer was also sold less at retail — its sales decreased by 16.3%. In general, sales of this drink and its derivatives decreased by 14.8% during the study period, amounting to 336.52 million dal. Retail sales of beer drinks decreased by 3.8%, to 45.46 million dal. At the same time, the trade in cider, poire and mead progressed more successfully — in the first half of 2025, these goods were sold by 9.9% more (5.66 million dal).
A reduction was also recorded in the wine segment. Sales of grape wines, for example, decreased by 3.9% to 27.55 million dal. Sales of liqueur wines fell by 12.8%, to 588.5 thousand dal. Sparkling wine sold 9.8 million dal (-8%).
Sales of grape-containing beverages with ethyl alcohol decreased by 15.2% to 706.9 thousand dal during the reporting period. In the case of wine-containing beverages without ethyl alcohol, the reduction was 61.5% (125.6 thousand dal). Sales of fruit alcoholic beverages decreased by 74.6%, to 1.45 million dal.
The press service of Rosalokoltabakcontrol explained to Izvestia that the reduction in retail beer sales recorded in the first half of this year is of a technical nature. The drop is due to a change in the accounting structure in this product category.
Meanwhile, according to the agency, several factors led to a decrease in retail sales of strong alcohol.
— We consider the main reason to be the change in the price environment. The market was influenced by an increase in the excise tax rate on alcoholic beverages from the beginning of 2025 and an increase in minimum retail prices for alcohol, the Federal Service for Control of Alcohol and Tobacco Markets emphasized.
Not a single beer
The decline in retail beer sales, however, is not only technical in nature. The observed dynamics is also influenced by several significant factors, says Alexander Stavtsev, head of the WineRetail information center. First of all, it is important to understand that seasonality is present in the sale of this drink. Sales could decrease, among other things, due to the low temperatures recorded in June.
The sale of beer in the summer season strongly depends on the weather, confirms Alexander Anfinogenov, an independent expert of the FMCG market. This summer was very different from last year, being colder, which affected the demand for drinks.
The second factor is the increase in duties on imported beer from January 1, adds Stavtsev.
— Beer from the Czech Republic, Germany and other countries, which were supplied to Russia brewing products, has risen significantly, so there is some decline, he believes.
The rise in price of beer averaged 15% compared to last year, says Anfinogenov. It is also worth considering the switch of consumers to cider and mead, sales of which have increased by 10% this year.
All this indicates serious negative changes in the industry, the expert believes. These are caused by high excise taxes, an increase in the cost of ingredients, and shrinkflation (a decrease in the quantity or volume of goods in a package while maintaining or slightly changing the price).
At the same time, the production rates of beer and beer products in Russia are at a fairly high level. And the situation on the market of these products is significantly different from what is happening in other alcohol segments, Stavtsev notes.
— I don't think beer sales will drop significantly in the future. Now we are seeing a switch from wine to beer in retail, as noted by retail chains. Most likely, beer, as the most popular and affordable drink, will maintain sales volumes, — predicts the interlocutor of Izvestia.
The price trap
Meanwhile, sales of strong alcohol are really declining, notes Alexander Stavtsev. First of all, the decline is in the vodka segment, because it is the largest category.
— She pulls the whole group of strong drinks with her. But there are positions within the category that continue to grow. These are tinctures, rum and other products made from premium spirits. The only exception is cognac, which also shows a drop," the expert clarifies.
The reduction in vodka and cognac consumption against the background of an increase in the consumption of alcoholic beverages indicates a redistribution of segments, believes Alexander Anfinogenov.
First of all, this trend is due to the increase in minimum retail prices (MRTS) since the beginning of the year, which turned out to be quite significant, Stavtsev is convinced. The MRC for vodka per half liter this year has already amounted to 349 rubles against 299 rubles a year earlier, Anfinogenov recalls. Another reason is the indexation of excise taxes.
— That is, the cheapest vodka and the cheapest cognac on the market have gone up in price, and their consumption is decreasing. According to some signs, we see that part of the demand has flowed into the production of homemade alcohol," Stavtsev points out.
In addition, the drop in alcohol sales is due to price changes that depend on inflation and duties on foreign products, said Vladislav Spirin, president of the Association of producers of Russian Vodka. It is also important to take into account the main costs included in the price of the product. The price of vodka, for example, includes the price of alcohol, water, bottles and other packaging materials.
According to the expert, taxes are also a key factor determining the price of alcohol. These include not only the excise tax, but also the value added tax.
"In a bottle of vodka at the lowest price, the cost of alcohol does not exceed 10%, and taxes form more than 50% of the final price,— the Izvestia interlocutor draws attention.
In addition, restrictions imposed by individual regions on the retail sale of alcoholic beverages at the place and time have an impact, adds Spirin.
An alarming trend
Alexander Anfinogenov sees the current situation on the alcohol market as an easy version of the anti-alcohol campaign during perestroika. In the low price segment, the expert predicts the development of moonshine brewing, which may lead to a surge in the shadow market, deterioration in the quality of alcohol and the use of surrogates. All this is fraught with increased health risks. At the same time, the medium and high price segments will decrease significantly, reducing the range.
— In addition, agricultural enterprises that grow the necessary ingredients for the alcohol market will suffer: grain, grapes, hops and others, — the interlocutor of Izvestia expects.
The future situation in the industry, according to Alexander Stavtsev, will depend on the disposable incomes of the population. In the past, during periods of crisis, alcohol showed multidirectional dynamics and did not fall as much as other categories of goods.
In addition, it is important to monitor the exchange rate, since the period of strengthening the ruble is over, the expert adds.
— It will also affect the market both from the point of view of the direct cost of buying alcohol, and from the point of view of the import component in the cost of Russian goods, because some of the materials in brewing and in the production of Russian wine are foreign. And exchange rates have a direct impact on these aspects," he emphasizes.
In this regard, raising the minimum retail price seems to Anfinogenov an ill-conceived decision, the purpose of which is not clear. In the case of combating alcohol consumption, it is necessary to carefully analyze all possible consequences and risks.
"Raising the MRC to increase budget revenues is a completely wrong strategic path, since the share of alcohol income in the total budget of the country is negligible, and losses for the market will be significantly large," the Izvestia interlocutor is convinced.
At the same time, according to the amendments to the Tax Code of the Russian Federation, the excise tax rate on alcohol will increase in the next two years, which causes concern among market players, the expert draws attention.
Try out a new one
Meanwhile, the wine market has been actively growing over the past eight years, and the observed adjustments in sales volumes are quite natural, says Ilya Voloshin, oenologist and champagne specialist at Olymp Winery and Belogorye Manor.
— It is necessary to wait for the end of the summer holiday season, followed by the New Year holidays, and then it will be possible to firmly fix one or another trend. We know examples of sharp seasonal demand for a particular drink, which can cover several months of previous market decline," the Izvestia interlocutor notes.
At the same time, the decline in sales is taking place against the background of a reduction in wine exports from unfriendly countries caused by new import duties, the expert believes.
— There is a reorientation to own production. Manufacturers familiar to consumers disappear from the shelves, and others appear. The dynamic updating of the shelf leads to a temporary decrease in demand, as consumer confidence in new brands does not have time to form," Voloshin points out. For a long time, the consumer's tastes were shaped by imported, mainly European, wine producers, he recalls. And now Russians will have to accept, taste and love new products.
In this case, Russian manufacturers need to prove their competence by finding their customers, the Izvestia interlocutor is convinced. This process is currently developing rapidly, and the observed market fluctuations are quite natural.
Voloshin predicts a recovery in the growth of demand for wine, especially for domestic products, in the future. In his opinion, this is indicated by several factors at once.
First of all, we are talking about the formation of the already mentioned consumer confidence.
— The expected adoption at the legislative level of a mandatory percentage of Russian wines in the wine lists of restaurants, wine shops and on store shelves will also play a role. This will turn the whole market around and introduce new rules of the game," Voloshin is sure.
It is also important that a huge amount of investment is being directed into the wine industry today, he adds.
— Major players are emerging, thousands of hectares of vineyards are being laid, which entails protecting their investments and actively promoting their product, which will affect the recognition of Russian wine as a whole. And this is what both the industry and the consumer need," the expert summarizes.
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