Sobriety Society: alcohol sales have collapsed in Russia
From January to April 2025, 63.586 million dal of alcoholic beverages were sold in the Russian Federation, which is 14% less year-on-year, Interfax reports. At the same time, low-alcohol beverages were sold 9.3 times less than a year earlier, only 645.9 thousand dal. Nevertheless, the Ministry of Health records an increase in alcohol consumption. What explains the decline in sales and how the situation on the market of strong and weak alcohol is developing is in the Izvestia article.
The more expensive, the less
The April sales drop is the most sensitive in four months. 15.7 million barrels of strong alcohol were sold, which is 12% lower than last year.
According to RATK, Russians bought 6.3% less vodka (22.853 million dal), 11.8% less cognac (4.091 million dal). Alcoholic beverages, on the contrary, were purchased by 13% more, or 5.63 million dal, and other alcoholic beverages — by 1.8%, to 4.442 million dal. In total, spirits were bought 3.6% less in the first four months of the year, that is, 37.016 million dal.
They also began to buy fewer wine products. Grape wines — by 1.4% less (or 17.516 million dal), sparkling wines — by 5.2% less (or 6.428 million dal), liqueur wines — by 0.7% less (or 408.6 thousand dal).
The press service of the Federal Service for Alcohol and Tobacco Market Control told Izvestia that there has been a decrease in the negative dynamics of retail sales over the past four months. The pricing policy of the market is conditioned by changes in the price environment. Excise taxes on alcohol from January 1 of this year to 740 rubles per liter (or by 15%). As a result, excise tax rates have increased and minimum retail prices for certain types of labeled alcoholic beverages have increased by more than 9%.
"At the same time, the general list of alcoholic beverages also includes low-alcohol (cocktails). The decrease in retail sales in the group of low-alcohol products is directly related to a decrease in production volumes, which, in turn, decreased due to a change in the excise tax calculation procedure and an increase in its rate from May 1, 2024. After these changes, the production of low-alcohol products almost completely shifted to the group of fermented beverages. Accordingly, retail indicators have also moved into this category," the press service of the department commented.
Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, but no response had been received by the time of publication.
Features of statistics
Meanwhile, it is not entirely correct to compare the data for January and April with other months, since various changes occur at the beginning of the year that may affect the market, believes Alexander Stavtsev, head of the WineRetail information center.
— This year, in particular, we have seen a significant increase in minimum retail prices for vodka, cognac and other alcoholic beverages, except sparkling wine. Also, sales of low-alcohol products decreased significantly after the excise tax increase from May 1 and the transfer of drinks imitating champagne to the category of beer drinks and ciders. This, in turn, affected demand, and we saw a drop in sales in liters," he says.
According to an industry expert, there has been an increase in alcohol consumption in small packages in Russia — flasks and "cabinets".
— At the same time, they generally began to drink less. This is especially true for young people who consume alcohol in smaller quantities. The country is also implementing measures to limit the availability of alcohol as part of an anti—alcohol campaign, which includes reducing sales time in various regions, he lists the reasons for such statistics.
Alexander Stavtsev emphasizes that all official data relate only to legal sales.
— The issue of actual alcohol consumption remains open, especially with regard to strong drinks. For a more accurate assessment, data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs is needed, which can estimate the volume of illegal alcohol and moonshine. Illegal alcohol is practically non-existent in retail sales due to the USAIS system, which provides mark-up accounting. The volume of the illegal alcohol market has not been estimated for a long time," he says.
Changing preferences
In addition to the increase in excise taxes, Magomed Magomedov, an analyst at Finam, attributes the price increase to inflation.
— The rise in price of everyday products has prompted the population to reduce alcohol consumption, which has led to a redistribution of consumption within the segment of strong drinks. At this time, the low—alcohol segment was expected to suffer more, as the demand for low-alcohol beverages (with the exception of beer) is more elastic than the demand for spirits," he says.
According to the expert, the trend towards an increase in the share of strong drinks in the structure of alcohol consumption continues.
— In this segment, wine sales suffered the most: in addition to demand pressure related to rising prices and changing consumer preferences, wine production and import volumes decreased. All this, together with the record high base of 2024, has formed the existing picture," the analyst said.
According to the Kuban-Vino company, in January-February 2025, there was a general decrease in sales of still and sparkling wine. "Among the factors influencing this result, we can single out the high base of 2024, when there was an increase in purchases ahead of price increases, as well as a reduction in weekends and holidays in the first quarter of 2025 and an earlier Great Lent," the company told Izvestia.
According to the representative of the company, in the first quarter there was a decrease in consumption of both imported and domestic wines. "If the downward trend in demand continues, it may affect all market participants, including local producers. The current situation forces us to pay more attention to consumer preferences and actively work to improve the quality and accessibility of our products," the organization's press service believes.
With reference to expert data, they pointed to an increase in interest in beer among customers. "Although we cannot say with complete certainty that this trend is really present in all segments, our partners note that the increase in prices for wine products could provoke a redistribution of consumer demand," shared the observation in the Kuban Wine company.
Alexander Stavtsev attributes the drop in wine sales to changes in imports: since 2023, there have been three increases in duties on wine from unfriendly countries, which significantly increased prices.
— Since May 1 last year, the excise tax on wine products has also increased, which affected the cost on the shelves. Now a bottle of imported wine costs about twice as much as in April last year," says Stavtsev.
The expert also notes the shift in demand from wine to beer. According to Alexander Stavtsev, this does not yet apply to Russian wine, which, despite rising prices, continues to be sold, as the excise tax on it has not increased.
The bans didn't help
The rise in price of alcohol has led to a drop in official alcohol sales. At the same time, the Central Research Institute of Healthcare Organization and Informatization of the Ministry of Health reported an increase in alcohol consumption in March 2025 by 2.4% compared to the same period in 2024 and by 0.2% compared to February 2025. The increase in alcohol consumption was recorded for the first time since 2019. Since 2019, the Ministry of Health has recorded a decrease in alcohol consumption.
The multidirectional trends in reducing the volume of official alcohol sales and increasing alcohol consumption indicate an increase in the turnover of alcoholic beverages on the black market, says Tatiana Podolskaya, an expert at the Presidential Academy. She cites the example of the Vologda region, where restrictions imposed on the sale of alcohol on working days have led to a high demand for alcoholic beverages and active sale on the black market, including alcoholic tinctures, in round-the-clock pharmacies.
This once again confirms the fact that legislative prohibitions will not be able to reduce alcohol consumption. The results of a sociological survey conducted by VTSIOM, published in April 2025, show that the level of support for the anti—alcohol campaign, if it had been announced, is at the lowest level for the entire period of research on this issue since 2009, she says.
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