School codes: Tens of thousands of teachers may be out of work
Already in the new academic year in the Russian elementary school (grades 1-4) There will be 346.7 thousand fewer students than in the past, analysts estimate. This means that approximately 17,000 teachers will be redundant, and then every year this number will only increase. The Ministry of Education confirmed that the number of children in schools is expected to decrease by 2040, so the agency is working on the issue of systematic retraining of teachers who are being released in order to keep them in the education system. The information about the rate at which the number of schoolchildren will decrease and what prospects teachers have is in the Izvestia material.
There will be fewer students in the lower grades of the school
The need for primary school teachers will decrease rapidly in the coming years due to a decrease in the number of students, according to a study by the Teacher trade union.
If more than 1.7 million children entered the first grade last academic year, this year there will be more than 100,000 fewer. And in general, there will be 346.7 thousand fewer students in elementary schools (grades 1-4) from September 1, 2025, analysts calculated, based on birth rate data.
In the near future, the number of primary school students will decrease even more rapidly: in the 2026-2027 academic year, 429.7 thousand fewer children will go to the 1st grade than a year earlier, and in 2027-2028 - by another 411 thousand fewer.
According to the HSE Institute for Statistical Research and Economics of Knowledge, there were 20 students per teacher in 2024, trade union Organizing Secretary Olga Miryasova recalled.
"This means that already in the upcoming academic year, more than 17.3 thousand primary school teachers will become redundant, in 2026-2027, almost 21.5 thousand more primary school teachers will be released, and then another 20.5 thousand," she said. — Some of them may go to secondary school after advanced training, where the next three years the staff will still be in demand.
Indeed, over the next three years, the number of students in the secondary school (grades 5-9) will grow by 314.5 thousand (that is, more than 13.8 thousand additional teachers will be needed). But then it will begin to decline sharply: from 2028 to 2031, by a total of 1.4 million children.
According to the Ministry of Education, there are now 17 students per teacher.
"The figure is comparable to the values of this indicator in Soviet times," the ministry told Izvestia.
Accordingly, the number of teachers who may be out of work may be higher than the union estimates.
— It is obvious that the number of "extra" teachers in primary schools is significantly higher than the needs of the basic education level, — stated Olga Miryasova.
Why is the number of schoolchildren decreasing
The children who are preparing to go to school were born to mothers who are now about 25 years old, Elena Egorova, head of the Quantitative Research Methods Scientific Laboratory at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, told Izvestia.
— So these mothers were born in the late 90s and early 2000s, and this is the very bottom of our demographic hole. And if there are no mothers, then there are no children," she said.
The expert noted that there is still a tendency to reduce the number of children in the family. She cited Tatarstan as an example: the republic was traditionally considered to have "three children," but now many families there have only one child.
The Ministry of Education, in response to a request from Izvestia, reported that according to the restrained scenario of Rosstat's forecast, a decrease in the number of children is expected by 2040. They noted that, against the background of the demographic forecast, a surplus of teachers is indeed expected, mainly in elementary schools — about 100,000 teachers by 2030, but noted that "it is important not to lose infrastructure and teachers."
"Currently, the issue of systematic retraining of outgoing primary school teachers is being worked out in order to keep them in the education system in the areas in demand," the Ministry of Education reported. — It is important to provide conditions for education, retraining and employment."
According to the Russian Ministry of Education and Science, there is now an increasing demand for teaching specialties. According to the results of the university admission campaign, they have been among the three most in demand for the third year. About 75 thousand budgetary places are allocated annually for pedagogical programs of higher education.
The Ministry of Education noted that it is impractical to seriously increase the number of teachers against the background of demographic decline: while reducing the number of children in the education system, it is necessary to maintain a reasonable balance between productivity, workload and wages.
Where can "extra" teachers work?
Primary school teachers could retrain as subject teachers in primary and high schools, the Ministry of Education reported. In addition, extended-day caregivers, additional education teachers, psychologists and speech pathologists are needed.
Irina Abankina, a professor at the HSE Institute of Education, noted that teachers who have been released can be involved in large federal educational centers and camps where children are sent from their schools. She expressed confidence that officials of the Ministry of Education are not inclined to repeat the situation of 2004-2006, when the number of students in schools dropped from 20 million to 13 million and teachers were reduced. But then they were recruited "with great difficulty."
— I regularly say that we need a sabbatical system in our country — a sabbatical with pay for a year. At this time, teachers could improve their skills and at the same time remain in reserve, it could be up to 20% of the teaching staff," the expert said.
She recalled that in the USSR there was a similar system for university teachers.
— And it was very effective, it gave a great impetus to the teacher's development, he had time to master new knowledge and new techniques, — said Irina Abankina. — And now it would be possible to give teachers time for development, internships at federal sites.
And Elena Egorova urged "not to retrain teachers indiscriminately," recalling that the demographic situation is developing in waves, therefore, fluctuations in the number of children going to school should still be expected in a positive direction.
— In 2001-2003, the birth rate began to rise, so you can expect children from mothers who were born around that time, — said Elena Egorova. — Also, do not forget about the various social support measures that are being introduced at both the federal and regional levels. For example, in a number of regions, mortgages were fully repaid for the third child at the expense of budget funds, and this measure contributes to an increase in the birth rate. And those over 30 are starting to think about having a second and third child more often.
Mikhail Avdeenko, Deputy Chairman of the All-Russian Education Trade Union, expressed concern that with a reduction in the number of schoolchildren in Russia, the per capita school funding system would remain in place. He recalled that, on average, teachers now work for one and a half hours anyway, mainly to ensure a normal income. And reducing the number of children in schools while maintaining the current system will negatively affect teachers' income.
In his opinion, it is worthwhile to fix the amount of funding for schools now in order to further redistribute it to the teachers' salary fund.
Olga Miryasova noted that even reducing the number of children for demographic reasons does not solve the problem of excessive workload for teachers. Especially considering the reduction in teachers of the older age group who will retire.
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