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- A double-edged sword: Trump praises China and prepares allies for possible conflict with it
A double-edged sword: Trump praises China and prepares allies for possible conflict with it
Donald Trump praised the steps taken by the Chinese government to stop the flow of fentanyl into the United States, where the drug epidemic has been going on for years due to the spread of this synthetic opiate. The lives of many young Americans addicted to drugs are cut short by overdoses. It is possible that by softening the rhetoric against China, the US president is preparing for a possible meeting with Xi Jinping. In particular, American businessmen who do business with China are interested in this. However, this does not prevent Washington from conducting joint military maneuvers with Asian partners and building new bases, which causes a negative reaction from Beijing. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Big steps towards each other
Donald Trump has signed a decree aimed at combating the illegal trafficking of fentanyl, the White House said. The law classifies fentanyl-related substances as Schedule I narcotic drugs with the strictest government restrictions. However, the decree does not affect the use of fentanyl for medical purposes.
According to the American leader, the law "inflicts another defeat on violent smugglers, criminals and cartels."
At the same time, the American head of state curtsied towards China, stressing that Beijing had taken serious measures to stop the flow of the drug and its precursors into the United States.
"The situation with fentanyl was terrible. But since I came here, we have been talking to them, and they are making great strides, they are helping us," the American leader said about the Chinese authorities.
As journalists have noticed, Trump's tone now is very different from his statements made before, when he imposed double-digit tariffs on imports from China.
According to former US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns, Washington and Beijing, although slowly, are still "moving towards agreement," and given that over 10,000 US companies operate in China, both American and Chinese businessmen are interested in this.
According to Bloomberg, Trump has decided to tone down his rhetoric towards China due to a possible meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
At the same time, this does not prevent the Pentagon from preparing American allies in Asia for a possible clash with China. In particular, Washington supplies weapons to Taiwan and organizes repair bases in the Philippines for the local Navy. The Americans have already built barracks, warehouses and other facilities for their military in nine areas on the islands.
The Trade War
Since February of this year, at the initiative of the United States, Washington and Beijing have been involved in a full-fledged tariff war. In May, the parties were able to reach a preliminary agreement significantly reducing mutual trade duties, which previously exceeded 100%.
One of the main reasons for Washington's harsh tariff measures was the need to influence China as a producer of fentanyl. Another factor was the general desire of the White House to bring home the industry, which has left the United States over the past few decades due to the significantly lower cost of production in Asian countries.
Prohibitive duties were supposed to stimulate domestic production. However, it quickly became clear that this goal could not be achieved quickly.
China has made it clear that they do not want a trade war with Washington, but they are not afraid to fight either. The trade standoff between the United States and China, according to analysts, led to sharp fluctuations in the market, freezing the growth of the global economy.
If the parties had not concluded an agreement and high American duties would still apply to Chinese goods, this could have had a very negative impact on the state of the Chinese economy. At the same time, experts admit that the deal would be more beneficial to Washington in the first place: China retains control over the global supply of many resources, including rare earths, which are critically needed for the production of smartphones, lasers and electric vehicles.
What do the experts think
Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEMI) HSE Vasily Kashin, in an interview with Izvestia, noted that during the escalation of trade relations between the United States and China, Beijing did not make any concessions, because it feels confident.
"The Chinese authorities had a rather negative experience of interacting with the first administration of Donald Trump, when the country made significant concessions and compromises unilaterally, but the United States only attacked again and again in response," the expert emphasized.
According to the political scientist, the new act of the trade war between the countries has a radical character.
"At the same time, the parties understand that it cannot be continued indefinitely, because this leads to an increase in inflation and an imbalance in the US consumer market, as well as an aggravation of crisis phenomena in a number of Chinese industries," the expert explained.
He added that China itself depends on American products in a number of areas and is also in a vulnerable position because of this.
"The parties will not return to a normal level of relations, but at the same time they understand that it is necessary to take steps to reduce the intensity of mutual restrictions," the political scientist believes.
In his opinion, the United States has recently come to terms with the growing power of China.
— At the official level, Beijing denies that it has ambitions for world leadership, but in Chinese politics there is a transition to the idea of China's high role in all matters of global governance with an attempt to create a circle of states that will support the growing Chinese initiatives, — concluded the analyst.
Alexey Maslov, director of the Institute of Asian and African Studies at Moscow State University, believes that Donald Trump expected a quick victory over China.
— China resumed the supply of rare earth metals in response to the reduction of duties. The Chinese and American sides agreed to continue the dialogue, and, in principle, it should continue in July-August, as scheduled, and then again in September. But we can see from the statements of the Chinese press that the Americans did not give the duties they promised. As a result, China may slow down the supply of rare earth metals, as well as magnets and magnetite-containing metals from the United States. In other words, what appeared to be a rapprochement obviously failed. Interestingly, the United States is still putting really serious pressure with duties on a number of Asian countries, primarily on states that, it would seem, are not very significant for American trade, such as Laos or Cambodia, the expert notes.
Maslov points out that these countries communicate very closely with China, and, according to the Americans, Chinese enterprises are still operating on their territory.
— This is seen as an attempt by China to circumvent tariff barriers and duties. Apparently, Trump wants to put the squeeze on Southeast Asia, which is ideologically and economically close to China in many ways. But I think that in any case, everything will depend on the US-Chinese negotiations, which are still due to take place before the end of the summer," the expert summed up.
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