Imports and not there: turnover between China and the United States collapsed by 20% in April due to trade wars

The trade turnover between the United States and China collapsed by 20% due to trade wars - in April 2025, it amounted to $ 45.6 billion, Izvestia found out. These are the first results of the economic confrontation between the states. China is the only country that has had increased tariffs for a month: They began operating on April 10, and they were put on pause only on May 14. At the same time, Trump has already stated that the American economy "cannot survive" without duties — probably, after a three-month break, restrictions will still be restored to some extent. What this will mean for world trade, for oil prices and, as a result, for Russia — in the Izvestia article.

Trade turnover between America and China in April 2025

The mutual trade turnover between China and the United States fell by almost 20% in April to $45.6 billion. This follows from the data of the Chinese customs, which was studied by Izvestia. For comparison, a year earlier this figure was about $56.4 billion.

Photo: Global Look Press/Fernando Gutierrez-Juarez

Since February, the United States has imposed duties of 10% on all Chinese products. In response, Beijing imposed tariffs of 15% on coal and LNG and 10% on oil and agricultural equipment. However, the really large-scale confrontation began in the spring. On April 2, Trump announced tariffs against 185 countries, including 34% against China. If a 30-day and then a 90-day pause in the application of measures almost immediately spread to other states, then the situation with China, on the contrary, worsened.

Then the countries raised the rates several times, and as a result, duties against Beijing rose to 145%, and against Washington to 125%. In these circumstances, the countries decided to engage in dialogue. As a result, the parties managed to reach an agreement and reduce tariffs for 90 days from May 14. So, Washington reduced fees to 30%, and Beijing — to 10%.

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Meanwhile, dissatisfaction with the economic wars is brewing within the United States itself. At the end of May, the country's Commercial Court ruled that President Trump had exceeded his authority and decided to block the imposition of duties. However, the court of appeal later reinstated them.

And the American leader continues to declare the benefits for the state from tariffs. According to him, America can become a "hostage of other countries", it has no chance of "economic survival" without the ability to quickly impose retaliatory duties on imports.

Photo: Global Look Press/gr4

That is, at the end of the 90-day period, the White House is likely to return to its harsh rhetoric, says Pavel Sevostyanov, associate professor of the Department of Political Analysis and Socio-Psychological Processes at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. He added: trade confrontation is part of Donald Trump's political capital, he will not be able to completely eliminate tariffs because he uses them as a tool of pressure.

How will the trade turnover between China and the United States change in 2025

The April results of trade turnover between China and the United States are important because they allow us to draw conclusions and make predictions about the risks of further confrontation between the powers.

— The decrease in trade turnover between the United States and China by $10.8 billion in April is a rather alarming signal. A temporary easing of duties may have only a limited effect — in three months, importers will not have time to quickly rebuild logistics and contracts," Pavel Sevostyanov noted.

The reduction of mutual trade by 20% is still a mild reaction to the harsh measures taken against each other by the administrations of both countries, says Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam. However, if the situation worsens, bilateral trade risks sinking much more, she believes.

Photo: Global Look Press/Christian Ohde

Taking into account all the pauses, by the end of 2025, the volume of trade between China and the United States may decrease by about 15-20% if the parties eventually leave tariffs at 30% and 10%, respectively, Freedom Finance Global macroeconomist Yuri Ichkitidze expects. Then mutual trade will amount to about $550-600 billion against $688 billion a year earlier. However, in the case of a radical increase in duties, trade may sink by 1.5 times — up to $ 450-460 billion, the expert believes.

The share of U.S.-Chinese trade in world trade is about 3%, said Mikhail Baghdasaryan, senior researcher at the International Laboratory for Foreign Trade Research at the Institute of Applied Economic Research of the Presidential Academy. At the same time, the volume of world trade in goods, according to the WTO, amounted to $24.4 trillion in 2024.

In this case, due to a new round of trade wars - not only between China and the United States, but also between the United States and other countries — global trade risks declining by 10-15%, independent expert Andrei Barkhota believes.

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How trade wars can affect the Russian economy

The trade standoff between the United States and China will have an ambiguous effect on Russia. A reduction in bilateral trade may weaken industrial demand in China, which is the largest consumer of raw materials and petroleum products from our country, said Nikolai Dudchenko, analyst at Finam. The decrease in trade turnover with the United States in April by $10 billion is a signal of a possible cooling of the Chinese economy. This may reduce the demand for oil, putting pressure on world prices.

Although by the beginning of June, Brent quotes had regained some of their losses (on June 3, it was trading at $65 per barrel), overall, energy prices have fallen by a quarter since the beginning of the year. Because of this, the Ministry of Finance has already tripled its budget deficit forecast to 3.8 trillion rubles.

According to Pavel Sevostyanov from Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, oil prices may drop by another $2-3 per barrel in the short term due to uncertainty. But if China steps up domestic stimulus, it will partially support the market.

On the other hand, China will need to diversify the supply of its products abroad — and here Russia gets a wide window of opportunity, the expert recalled. As he explained, exports are already growing through Kazakhstan and the ports of the Far East. For example, in the first quarter of 2025, shipments increased by 8% compared to 2024. Against this background, our country can strengthen its position in the eastern direction.