Deadline: Why Russia and Ukraine cannot agree on a meeting date
Moscow and Kiev have been unable to agree on a date for the third round of negotiations since early June. There are no dates for this meeting, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin told Izvestia. It is expected that it will be held in Istanbul again. On July 18, the leaders of Russia and Turkey discussed the Ukrainian crisis in a telephone conversation. Vladimir Putin thanked Recep Tayyip Erdogan for his willingness to continue facilitating direct negotiations. While the Kremlin is waiting for signals from the Ukrainian side and offering to discuss the memoranda in detail, Kiev, publicly expressing its readiness to continue the dialogue, is actually delaying it. The reason for Ukraine's unwillingness to move towards a settlement of the conflict is in the Izvestia article.
Ukraine delays the third round of negotiations with Russia
Moscow and Kiev held two rounds of talks in Istanbul, the last of which took place on June 2. At that time, the parties discussed draft memoranda on ceasefire and agreed to exchange seriously wounded and seriously ill prisoners of war, as well as soldiers under the age of 25. Since then, the parties have not been able to agree on holding the next meeting.
"The third round of negotiations has not yet begun, and there is not even a deadline," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin told Izvestia.
At the same time, there is more clarity about the venue of the new round. Most likely, it will be held in the Turkish metropolis again. As if to confirm this, on July 18, Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The leaders of Russia and Turkey discussed bilateral relations, the situation in Syria and, of course, the Ukrainian crisis. The Russian president confirmed his principled commitment to finding a political and diplomatic solution to the conflict and thanked his Turkish counterpart for his willingness to continue facilitating direct Russian-Ukrainian talks at the Istanbul venue.
A day earlier, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that Russia was still holding direct talks with representatives of Kiev, and even mentioned the topic of the next meeting - the discussion of memoranda of the parties. Earlier, Russian high-ranking officials have repeatedly spoken about strong differences in the texts, for example, regarding the territories and conditions of the ceasefire. For example, Moscow insists on the international recognition of Crimea, Donbass and Novorossiya as part of the Russian Federation, a condition that Kiev does not want to accept. Ukraine mentions in the text of its memorandum its intention to continue moving towards joining the EU and NATO, although Moscow is only interested in the neutral status of its neighboring state.
Peskov also noted that before agreeing on a new date for negotiations, it is necessary to complete the exchange process. By the way, the last such operation took place on July 17th. According to the head of the Russian negotiating delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, Moscow handed over 1,000 bodies of Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers to Kiev on Thursday, and Ukraine handed over 19 bodies of Russian soldiers.
By the way, Vladimir Zelensky set the task for the head of the Ukrainian negotiating group, Rustem Umerov, to add momentum on this track — the Kremlin appreciated the idea positively. At the same time, the newly appointed NSDC secretary was instructed to continue working with Western partners on arms supplies, which once again underlines Kiev's inconsistency. Zelensky noted that every agreement reached should be implemented, as well as new agreements on the creation of joint ventures and the construction of factories in these countries.
Negotiations have been "suspended" by Kiev, which is either avoiding them or has not decided on the date of the next round, according to Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova. She emphasized that Moscow is ready for discussions from 2022.
Kiev may even find a formal reason to suspend them, for example, the appointment of Umerov as secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, said Alexander Dudchak, an expert at the Institute of CIS Countries.
"They may refer to the fact that they are forming a new team or looking for a new head of delegation," says the expert.
Why does Kiev benefit from a pause in the peace process
Ukraine's interest in continuing the conflict is fueled primarily by promises of new supplies of military equipment from Western partners, Dudchak notes. On July 14, Donald Trump launched the military "conveyor belt", announcing a very resonant decision, given his relatively loyal position towards the Russian Federation all this time. The American leader announced that a number of European countries would transfer Patriot air defense systems to Kiev, and the United States would help them replenish their empty arsenals with new complexes.
On July 15, Poland alone handed over the "47th tranche of military aid" to Ukraine. As the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic, Radoslaw Sikorski, clarified, "the last few of them were worth at least €100 million each." Moreover, Trump said that the cost of military aid to Ukraine, which will be sent through NATO, will amount to "billions of dollars."
Such actions are regarded as preparation for an even bigger conflict, former Prime Minister of Ukraine Mykola Azarov believes.
— Trump and his administration should realize this. It seemed to me that they understood this, and that's exactly what Trump was guided by when he put forward his algorithm: first, a truce, elections, the coming of legitimate power, and then the establishment of long-term peace, but for some reason he's moving away from it now," he told Izvestia.
Trump's threat to impose sanctions against Russia if a peace agreement is not reached within 50 days also gave Ukraine some respite.
— Ukraine understands that Trump will not necessarily impose any sanctions on Russia after this period. Moreover, Vladimir Putin's visit to China will take place in September, and an even stronger rapprochement between Moscow and Beijing is not beneficial for Washington. Therefore, everyone is given a pause for 50 days — Ukraine, Europe, and Trump — in order to observe the course of the conflict and not take active action," the expert says.
By the way, The Times newspaper, citing sources in China, reported on July 18 that the leaders of the United States, Russia and China — Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping — may hold a joint meeting in Beijing in early September. It is possible that it will coincide with the celebration of the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II.
In addition, Kiev understands that the greatest possible success now is to negotiate a new prisoner exchange and the transfer of bodies. In this regard, they have no particular motivation to bring a new round of negotiations closer, political analyst Nikolai Topornin believes.
— They also have a very critical attitude towards the composition of the Russian delegation, towards its head, Medinsky. They believe that he does not have the authority to conduct deep negotiations to establish peace. In Ukraine, they believe that such negotiations should be approached with a delegation at the level of the presidential administration, the Ministry of Defense or the Ministry of Foreign Affairs," Topornin continues.
Indeed, Kiev has repeatedly criticized the level of the Russian delegation. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte also criticized the appointment of the head of the historian mission in a conversation with Trump. Commenting on his words, the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, noted: "Without knowing the history of the issue, no problem can be solved, it can only worsen. The illiteracy of NATO leaders has already led to numerous victims in the world."
Ironically, Rutte is also a historian by education, but this did not prevent him from heading the Dutch government and then the North Atlantic Alliance. At the same time, the Secretary General did not achieve outstanding results in his original profession. In response to criticism of the delegation's composition, Dmitry Peskov recalled that Rutte, being a historian, had never publicly drawn such "brilliant historical parallels" as Medinsky.
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