Conversational calm: Russia will continue direct negotiations with Ukraine
Russia will continue direct negotiations with Ukraine, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin told Izvestia. However, the date of the third round has not yet been set. In Kiev, they say that first it is necessary to complete the prisoner exchanges, which were agreed upon in Istanbul. And at the same time, they threaten new long-range strikes on Russian territory. Washington's inconsistent position adds to the uncertainty of the negotiation process: on the one hand, Marco Rubio and Sergey Lavrov discussed a "new approach" to the settlement at a meeting in Kuala Lumpur, on the other, the United States announced its intention to increase arms supplies to Kiev. The prospects for the third round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are described in the Izvestia article.
The likelihood of a third round of negotiations
Russia will continue direct negotiations with Ukraine, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, who participated in two previous meetings in Istanbul, told Izvestia.
"There is an understanding that direct Russian—Ukrainian negotiations will continue," he said.
In June, a couple of weeks after the second round, Vladimir Putin also stressed Russia's readiness for dialogue with Ukraine and even outlined the approximate dates of the next meeting.
Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Medinsky
— Our negotiating teams are in contact with each other. I just asked Medinsky, and he says he just talked to his partner from Kiev today. They agree to meet after June 22," the Russian president said at the time.
Now the Kremlin is waiting for signals from Kiev that would indicate readiness to resume direct negotiations.
— We have repeatedly said that it would be preferable for us to achieve the goals that we face through peaceful and diplomatic means. But as long as this does not happen, the special military operation continues, and realities on earth are changing every day," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov pointed out.
Meanwhile, Kiev calls the completion of the prisoner exchange, which was agreed upon following the results of previous meetings, a condition for the start of the third round of negotiations. This was stated, in particular, by Vladimir Zelensky on July 10. It should be recalled that at the last talks in Istanbul, Russia and Ukraine agreed on the exchange of prisoners "one thousand for one thousand", as well as on the return of "all for all" seriously ill and young prisoners, with at least 1,000 people on each side. Now the parties are continuing this work and the transfer of the bodies of the dead servicemen.
At the same time, Zelensky makes harsh statements that certainly cannot be considered as a signal for constructive negotiations. In particular, on July 13, at a meeting with the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, he said that Ukrainian units "will do everything" to transfer hostilities to Russian territory, and also announced the preparation of new long-range strikes.
Ukraine is demonstrating that it does not want to negotiate, says Bogdan Bezpalko, a political scientist and member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of Russia.
— She believes that these negotiations are a profanity. And we want to negotiate. But why should we just stop fighting, including when we regularly liberate populated areas? They don't promise us anything, and the demands that were voiced [in the Ukrainian ceasefire memorandum] actually require our surrender," the expert noted.
If we follow the logic of the Ukrainian side, the result of the conflict will only be its freezing, but not its settlement, Denis Denisov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia.
— Ukraine continues to insist that the military component [the cessation of hostilities] must be completed first, and then everything else. In fact, this process doesn't work that way. Effective, comprehensive regulation can only be achieved if all processes take place in parallel. A settlement is impossible without a political component," the expert said.
The situation before the third round of negotiations
It is impossible to assess Ukraine's next steps regarding the negotiations without the position of the United States, which is still Kiev's main ally, although not without reservations. And Washington's actions have recently become very chaotic.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov meets with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the sidelines of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' meeting at the Kuala Lumpur Convention Center.
The somewhat stalled discussion of the Ukrainian settlement resumed on a very unusual platform. On July 10, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio held talks in Malaysia on the sidelines of ASEAN events. Their meeting lasted about an hour. The next day, on July 11, the politicians also talked "on their feet."
After the talks, the Russian Foreign Minister confirmed that Ukraine was on the agenda.
"Yes, we discussed Ukraine, we confirmed the position that President Putin stated, including once again on July 3 in a conversation with President Trump," Lavrov stressed.
Rubio said that he had discussed with Lavrov a new approach to the settlement in Ukraine. The Russian side has not yet disclosed the details of this new approach, but the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, stated that the parties are trying to find a compromise solution to the conflict in Ukraine and are offering various options.
At the same time, it is worth emphasizing that the US rhetoric towards Russia in the context of the Ukrainian settlement has recently become tougher. Donald Trump said earlier that he was dissatisfied with the last telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin, and promised his response to Moscow. In addition, the American president announced an "important statement" on Russia, which he will announce on July 14.
Actually, the American leader has repeatedly stated about the possible tightening of sanctions against the Russian Federation, but so far there have been no concrete steps in this direction. Moreover, the absence of new restrictions in Washington was explained precisely by the unwillingness to interfere with the negotiations.
The decision to increase military support for Kiev also indicates a noticeable shift in the American position. According to a statement posted on the Pentagon's website on July 8, Washington, on the instructions of Donald Trump, is preparing to send additional defensive weapons to Ukraine "to ensure that Ukrainians can defend themselves while we work to ensure lasting peace."
Moreover, shortly before this statement, the Pentagon partially suspended military supplies to Ukraine under the pretext of reviewing stocks of certain types of weapons in its warehouses. Western media reported that they were talking about dozens of interceptor missiles for the Patriot air defense system, thousands of 155-millimeter high-explosive howitzer shells, more than 100 Hellfire guided missiles and over 250 GMLRS missiles, as well as dozens of Stinger surface-to-air missiles, AIM air-to-air missiles and grenade launchers.
Thus, the lack of a clear position from Washington also complicates the atmosphere before the third round of negotiations, experts believe.
— The Russian position has not changed, we can judge this on the basis of official statements. The Ukrainian position is the same. Is there an American position at all? They don't give us any reason to say that there really is a position there. There is a set of some very emotional demands and slogans," says Denis Denisov.
The United States has supported Ukraine and will continue to support it, Bogdan Bezpalko is sure. At the same time, the Ukrainian side has now realized that the Americans will not somehow force Russia to negotiate on terms that are unfavorable for the Russian Federation.
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