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To disrupt cooperation: Ukraine increased attacks on Russia after talks between Putin and Trump
The intensity of attacks on Russian territory by the Ukrainian Armed Forces increased by almost a third in the second quarter of this year. This was stated to Izvestia by the Russian Foreign Ministry's Ambassador-at-large Rodion Miroshnik. The number of victims increased by 15-18%, he noted. The diplomat emphasizes that Ukraine uses terrorist methods and seeks to create unbearable living conditions for the population. Kiev needs strikes on civilians for a harsh reaction from Russia and to receive Western assistance, experts say. Why Kiev is trying to create a negative background before the third round of negotiations is described in the Izvestia article.
Why have the Ukrainian Armed Forces begun to shell the Russian Federation more often
Ukraine has significantly intensified attacks on Russian territory since the end of March this year. The intensity of shelling increased to 30% in some periods in the second quarter, Rodion Miroshnik, the Russian Foreign Ministry's ambassador-at-large for crimes committed by the Kiev regime, told Izvestia.
—We have been recording [growth] since the beginning of the agreements on the energy truce,— the diplomat said. — From this moment on, we observe that Ukraine is beginning to increase the intensity of attacks. As a rule, it ranges from 10-20%, sometimes 25% and 30%, depending on the period," the diplomat said.
Recall that on March 18, the presidents of the Russian Federation and the United States held a telephone conversation, during which they agreed on a 30-day moratorium on attacks on the energy infrastructure of Russia and Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Moscow strictly abides by the ban on attacks, while Russian facilities continue to be attacked. The Russian Defense Ministry said in April that Kiev had not stopped attacking energy infrastructure for a single day.
By its actions, Ukraine demonstrates a complete unwillingness to resolve the conflict, despite statements about its alleged desire for peace. Kiev uses terrorist methods and is trying to create unbearable living conditions for the population, Miroshnik said. One of the tracks they used was an increase in shelling, Miroshnik said.
— The main task is to sow unrest among the civilian population and discontent with the authorities. They are trying in every possible way to use terrorist methods to start rocking the domestic agenda. But, as experience shows, it works more in the opposite direction. There are more demands for a tough response from the Ukrainian side," the diplomat stressed.
According to the weekly monitoring of the Russian Foreign Ministry's Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik, at least 22,000 rounds of ammunition were fired at civilian infrastructure facilities from January to March.
— The number of victims increased by 15-18% compared to the first quarter and the second. The intensity of attacks increased by about 300-400 arrivals per week. At first, we recorded 1.5–1.6 thousand per week, now it's 2-2.1 thousand, and sometimes 2.2 thousand," the diplomat noted.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces use UAVs to attack civilians, and they are not only hitting border areas. For example, as a result of a drone attack on an industrial enterprise in Izhevsk on July 1, there were dead and seriously injured, said the head of Udmurtia, Alexander Brechalov. In addition, Ukrainian militants use 152 and 155 mm artillery shells, including those with a cluster warhead, mines and grenades. As emphasized in the monitoring, the vast majority of Western-made weapons used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to attack civilians.
Kiev is intensifying attacks on Russian territory in order to get a harsh response from Russia and present it to Western partners as an argument for extending and resuming financial and military assistance programs. The second option: Kiev initially built the confrontation within the framework of an asymmetric strategy — sabotage instead of front-line combat operations, drone attacks on civilian targets instead of strikes on military installations, the struggle not for territories, but for dominance in the information field, Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor of the Department of Political Theory at MGIMO, said in an interview with Izvestia.
— The truth is most likely somewhere in the middle - the intention of the Ukrainian command is to solve not only military, but also diplomatic tasks with asymmetric strikes. Against the background of the aggravation in the Middle East and domestic American political processes, this is not surprising — the Ukrainian problem on the global agenda has given way even to the conflict in the distant DRC," the expert noted.
Interest in Ukraine has declined significantly due to the conflict between Israel and Iran, as well as internal problems in the United States and the EU. As the Financial Times notes, Ukrainian officials in private conversations with Western leaders are increasingly calling for a cease-fire, "the threat of hopelessness looms over the country."
How Ukraine is trying to disrupt the negotiations
For the first time, the presidents of the Russian Federation and the United States spoke by phone on February 12. Later, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump contacted each other four more times. The increase in attacks on the Ukrainian Armed Forces is taking place against the background of not only the dialogue between Moscow and Washington, but also the resumption of negotiations between the Russian Federation and Ukraine in Istanbul. For the first time in three years, the delegations of the two sides met in Turkey on May 16. Then the Russian negotiators, led by Presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, agreed with the Ukrainian delegation led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov on a prisoner exchange according to the "1000 to 1000" formula.
The delegations of Russia and Ukraine pictured during a meeting in Istanbul, Turkey, on May 16, 2025
During the second round of negotiations in Istanbul, Russia and Ukraine exchanged memoranda on conflict resolution and agreed on the exchange of prisoners of war, including those seriously wounded and under the age of 25. Moscow handed over more than 6,000 bodies of Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers to Ukraine, and received 78 in return. The sides also conducted several prisoner exchanges. At the same time, the Russian Federation is ready to give another 3 thousand bodies of the dead soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine — it's up to the Ukrainian side.
Moscow is ready for the third round of negotiations with Kiev, Vladimir Putin said on June 27 after the EAEU summit in Minsk. The Russian President said that the subject of the meeting with Kiev would be the discussion of the memoranda of the two countries — the heads of the negotiating groups are in constant contact and are calling each other.
The third round of negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations will take place when all the previously reached humanitarian agreements are fulfilled, Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. Earlier, he said that advancing the peace process in Ukraine depends on Kiev's behavior and Washington's effective mediation efforts. And although the US President's special representative for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, said on July 1 that Russia was allegedly delaying the negotiation process, the Kremlin stressed that the Russian Federation was primarily interested in achieving the goals of the special operation through political and diplomatic means. "Therefore, we are not interested in delaying anything," Peskov said.
The increase in shelling affects the negotiating background before the third round of dialogue, Vladimir Shapovalov, Deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics of Moscow State University, told Izvestia. According to him, it is Kiev and its Western patrons who are not interested in a peaceful settlement. Therefore, opponents of the peaceful path are trying to disrupt it with terrorist acts and provoke a harsh reaction from Russia. It is worth noting that the UK and the EU continue to take a tough stance against Moscow, imposing new sanctions and refusing to engage in dialogue.
At the same time, the negotiation process between the Russian Federation and Ukraine in recent weeks has been separated from the discussion of the actual fighting. Cautious progress is being made on humanitarian issues, although there are difficulties there too. Therefore, the third round of negotiations is likely to take place, but without significant breakthroughs on political issues. The sides still have not brought their positions closer together on a number of key issues, such as Ukraine's military and political prospects and recognition of Russia's state borders.
— Now everyone has set certain expectations for the summer campaign. Russia plans to move west and continue the liberation of the DPR with the prospect of gaining a foothold in part of the Dnipropetrovsk region. Ukraine, in turn, hopes to keep the situation in the Sumy region under control and, if possible, return to demonstration actions in the Belgorod and Kursk regions. Depending on how the parties manage to implement their plans, negotiation processes will be built closer to autumn, the expert believes.
Everything can remain at the level of humanitarian issues, or the negotiators will come out to discuss the key political parameters of the settlement. Ivan Loshkarev points out that such a protracted format of negotiations is still better than its absence, because there are few channels of communication with Kiev, and sooner or later a settlement will have to be approached.
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