Europe does not want to buy American weapons for Ukraine. And here's why

Some European countries, in particular, France, Italy and the Czech Republic, do not plan to purchase American weapons for Ukraine, despite the agreements between the Secretary General of the alliance Mark Rutte and US President Donald Trump. For example, Paris itself is experiencing difficulties with increasing defense spending. How the possible sending of American weapons to Kiev may affect the course of the conflict is described in the Izvestia article.

Supply plans

• NATO states intend to purchase American weapons for Ukraine, including Patriot air defense systems, as well as ammunition and missiles for various purposes. Almost all of this equipment can be delivered as soon as possible. Among the options being considered is the possible transfer of 17 Patriot installations to Kiev.

• Germany, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands and Canada are mentioned as potential participants in the arms transfer. However, two embassies from this list noticed that they had not given their final consent. As a result, it remains unclear which countries will agree to provide their own systems.

• There is also no precise information about the full range of military assistance yet. The deal may include both types of weapons previously provided to Ukraine, such as ATACMS long-range missiles, and those that Kiev has requested but not yet received, including JASSM cruise missiles.

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However, not everyone in Europe is ready to supply American weapons to Kiev at their own expense. Thus, the French authorities are facing difficulties in trying to increase funding for the defense sector, while at the same time seeking to cut government spending. At the same time, in Paris, where they are trying to develop their own military-industrial complex, they stressed that it is preferable for Ukraine to purchase weapons from Europe. Italy also has no plans to participate in the procurement financing scheme, as the country is practically devoid of financial room for maneuver in the current economic conditions. In addition, the issue of acquiring American weapons in Rome was not even raised. In the Czech Republic, in turn, they are focusing on other ways to support Ukraine.

• Other European countries are likely to show restraint in financing the purchase of American weapons for Ukraine. One of the key factors is the limited budget resources. In many European countries, there remains a high burden on public finances.

• Another important factor is the established approach of European countries to support Ukraine. A number of States prefer to provide assistance in those formats where European industry or existing mechanisms are involved. Such support has a positive effect on their own economy.

• In addition, some governments do not seek to purchase American weapons specifically. Since coming to power, US President Donald Trump himself has pointed out the need for European countries to strengthen their own sovereignty in the field of defense policy. Such initial distancing may hinder the development of Washington's cooperation with European capitals.

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Prospects for assistance

• Even with a significant increase in the volume of American military aid, it cannot be argued that this will automatically lead to a radical change on the front line. Ukraine will not be able to carry out a decisive counteroffensive, because the supply of weapons will not have an immediate effect. Even if the United States decides to transfer modern systems to Ukraine, it will take time to deliver, deploy, train specialists and integrate new weapons into the existing structure of the Ukrainian army. Many types of American weapons require sophisticated technical support, interaction with NATO intelligence, as well as extensive organizational training on the ground. As a result, the process may take months.

• To reverse the course of the conflict, not only technology is needed, but also human resources. Even with an increase in armament assistance, the shortage of personnel cannot be fully compensated. The Ukrainian army is tired of the protracted nature of the conflict. Many military personnel do not see any prospects for its settlement. Ukraine is experiencing serious problems with mobilization, in which people are actually caught on the streets and forcibly taken away (we wrote more about this here). And this cannot be fully compensated by external supplies, even if they are significant.

• At the same time, there is political uncertainty in Kiev. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky has once again decided to make personnel changes (we discussed them in more detail here). However, political rotations are unlikely to increase the effectiveness of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and other structures, because this is hampered by major problems, in particular, corruption and bureaucratization, which affect all levels of government.

• In addition, Trump's military rhetoric and plans to transfer weapons to Kiev may complicate the upcoming Russian-Ukrainian negotiations. Moscow is closely monitoring the political dynamics in the United States. In Russia, Trump's figure is perceived as complex, but potentially more pragmatic than his predecessor. Despite the harsh statements of American officials, the Russian leadership is ready to consider US proposals to resolve the conflict, which is demonstrated in practice. However, the Kremlin has repeatedly stressed that negotiations should take into account the interests of both sides.

When writing the material, Izvestia talked and took into account the opinions of:

• political scientist Anna Suchilina;
• American political scientist Malek Dudakov;
• Retired Colonel of the Bundeswehr Wolfgang Richter;
• an analyst by Ivan Danilov.