The fall of the American "hawks": Ukraine is leaving the American agenda
The US Senate is beginning a rapid restructuring: the "hawks" are being forced out of the Capitol, making room for isolationists. This is due to the so-called rare earth metals deal concluded with Kiev at the end of April. What is happening in Congress now, why pro—Ukrainian politicians are not favored there, and how events will develop further - in the Izvestia article.
Cats and mice
American media reports that over the past few months, the seats of four senators from Texas, Kentucky, as well as North and South Carolina in Congress have been under threat. The reason lies in the decline and sometimes almost complete lack of support on their part for the initiatives of the 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump, as well as the constant pro-Ukrainian agenda that some congressmen continue to promote.
At the end of May, according to the right-wing conservative resource Breitbart, a fierce power struggle unfolded in South Carolina. For the first time since 2002, Senator Lindsey Graham is facing serious competition ahead of next summer's election. Now, more than half of the state's Republicans do not support his re-election to a fifth term. Businessman and senator's rival, Mark Lynch— accuses Graham of ignoring the state's problems in favor of the Ukrainian agenda.
U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham.
Graham's popularity has fallen due to voter fatigue from his aggressive foreign policy line aimed at escalating conflicts around the world.
Initially, Graham opposed the initiatives of the 47th president of the United States, but when he felt an obvious cooling towards him from Trump, he immediately changed his mind. At the end of June, the current senator from South Carolina said that the head of state supported his anti-Russian sanctions package. The document provides for the introduction by the United States of 500 percent duties for importing countries of Russian oil and gas. The initiative will mainly affect the economic interests of China and India, which purchase hydrocarbons from the Russian Federation.
The other day, a senator from a neighboring state, North Carolina, announced his resignation under pressure from Trump. This happened after Tom Tills refused to support the scandalous "great wonderful law" of the US president, which was supposed to boost the American economy, but instead, according to Tills, it would ruin it. Previously, the senator often positioned himself as a centrist and often voted for Democratic initiatives. He also actively supported Ukraine and visited Bucha at the beginning of the year.
U.S. Senator Tom Tills.
Tom Tills became one of two Republican senators who voted against the initiative of the US president on July 1 (the act was nevertheless adopted by a minimal margin). In response, Donald Trump said that the current senator had no place in Congress, as "many people expressed a desire to participate in the primaries against him." "I will meet with them in the coming weeks in search of a person who will adequately represent the great people of North Carolina and, very importantly, the United States of America," the US president said. Michael Whatley, chairman of the Republican National Committee and a Trump supporter, is currently being considered for Till's place.
In recent years, Tills has been a key participant in numerous bipartisan negotiations, including on the well-known "Infrastructure Law." "Sometimes, because of these bipartisan initiatives, I had problems with my own party, but I would not change any of them," said the acting senator. He also stated that "leaders who are willing to maintain bipartisanship, compromise and demonstrate independent thinking are becoming an endangered species" in Washington, while noting two former Democrats: Joseph Manchin from West Virginia and Kristen Sinema from Arizona.
Wild, Wild West and the Kentucky War
In mid-May, the British newspaper Daily Mail published an article according to which Texas Senator John Cornyn, the personification of the Republican establishment, was on the verge of defeat in the internal party elections. He has represented the neoconservative wing since the presidency of George W. Bush and has held a seat in the Senate since 2002. Kornin has consistently supported all wars involving the United States, starting with Afghanistan and Iraq, as well as American intervention in the Ukrainian conflict. In 2022, he co-authored the "Lend-Lease Law" for Kiev, which, however, was not implemented. Now the senator is actively taking the initiative to resume financial assistance to Ukraine.
Attorney General of Texas Ken Paxton.
The steps towards the Kiev regime raise some questions among the residents of Texas. According to recent polls, only a third of Republicans are ready to support Cornyn. The state's Attorney General, Ken Paxton, a Trump supporter and critic of Ukraine, is ahead of him by 16 points: 50% versus 34%. The opponent even calls Kornin a senator from Ukraine. Among Republican voters, two-thirds support the US withdrawal from the current conflict and more than half have a negative opinion about Zelensky. The agenda of Kornin, who also defended the Ukrainian leader after a dispute with Trump in the Oval Office, does not resonate with the isolationist electorate.
However, at the end of April, the US president told reporters that he would not like Paxton and Cornyn to run against each other. "In a way, I would like them not to confront each other <...> I will make a decision at some point," Trump said at the time.
Next year, another iconic politician, the former Republican leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, is going to leave Congress. He is 83 years old, and he wanted to keep the status of Kentucky's representative in Congress until the last moment. Everything happens for the same reason as the others: the pro-Ukrainian theme, which has managed to bother everyone. New candidates are already vying for McConnell's seat. For example, Nate Morris, the owner of a large garbage disposal company, released a video in which he promises to get rid of all the accumulated "junk" in the state. By so-called waste, the candidate means the legacy of the current senator, who has become a symbol of the "Washington swamp" for many Americans.
U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell.
In the video, Morris loads a cardboard McConnell and his bills, such as amnesty for migrants and aid to Ukraine, as well as a figurine of Zelensky, who is causing discontent among the Republican electorate. Morris has already received the support of Trump's associates and has a good chance of winning. This will be a serious humiliation for McConnell, because his place will be taken by a principled critic of Ukraine.
Ukraine is no longer relevant
Recently, the positions of many pro-Ukrainian politicians in the United States have become shaky. Many Washington neoconservatives probably won't survive the consequences of the Ukrainian conflict and the crisis in the Middle East. Isolationists are strengthening their positions in both parties. Young socialists are emerging among the Democrats, who are also promoting the idea of radically reducing American involvement in affairs on other continents.
Vladimir Vasiliev, chief researcher at the Institute of the USA and Canada, in an interview with Izvestia, expressed the opinion that if trends continue, then the Republican Party is really waiting for a split. During Trump's first term, it was clearly divided into MAGA activists, whose positions come to the fore in connection with the Ukrainian agenda, and neoconservatives brought up in the Reagan spirit: everyone is tired of their belligerence. The expert also states that the split of the Republican Party is dangerous, as it will entail serious domestic political consequences, in particular, the loss of control over Congress.
— If the Republicans split — although the Democrats are not completely united either — this could have very serious domestic political consequences in terms of control over the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives. In this regard, republican control is very fragile. Indeed, what is happening now when discussing draft laws, when it is barely possible for the entire party to assemble and support a single resolution, is no good. In general, the consequences can be the saddest from the point of view of electoral prospects," the expert states.
Thus, personnel changes in the US Congress may negatively affect the future prospects of the Republican Party. The critical difference of opinion on the Ukrainian issue is one of the factors of potential tension. While the Democrats are trying to sabotage Trump's decisions, and the neoconservatives want to defeat Russia with the help of Ukraine, the isolationists, who are actively coming to the fore with their initiatives, simply do not want to involve the United States in obviously failed conflicts abroad.
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