Three in one: Russia seeks to revive the format with India and China

Moscow is negotiating the restoration of the Russia–India–China (RIC) format with Beijing and New Delhi, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko told Izvestia. According to him, work in the triangle will resume when China and India return to the previous level of relations. At the same time, Indian Foreign Minister Subramaniam Jaishankar visited China this week, where he noted the improvement in cooperation between the two countries. The Russian Federation welcomes these positive developments, the Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. The RIC format can become a platform for resolving disputes between Beijing and New Delhi, as well as strengthen security in Eurasia as a whole, experts say.

When will the Russia–India–China triangle work?

Russia expects the resumption of the Russia–India–China format and is negotiating this with Beijing and New Delhi, Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko told Izvestia.

— This topic appears in our negotiations with both of them. We are interested in making this format work, because these three countries are important partners, besides the founders of BRICS. Therefore, the absence of this format, in my opinion, looks inappropriate. In this regard, we expect that the countries will agree to resume work within the framework of the RIC — of course, when relations between these states reach a level that allows them to work in a trilateral format," the diplomat told Izvestia.

The willingness of India and China is important for the resumption of the format, and Russia is sincerely interested in it, the Russian Foreign Ministry stressed to Izvestia.

"The Russian side welcomes the positive developments in Indian—Chinese relations and expects that they will have a positive impact on the positions of New Delhi and Beijing regarding the resumption of the trilateral mechanism," the ministry said.

The countries play an important role in the BRICS and SCO, which promote creative and constructive cooperation, actively participate in the formation of a more equitable multipolar world order, and international relations that are primarily focused on sustainable, secure and barrier-free development.

— The similarity of approaches to a number of issues allows the three states to find optimal solutions in the context of interaction on multilateral platforms. So, last year, with the support of India and China, anti—terrorist exercises organized by Russia and Myanmar were held at the Meeting of Defense Ministers of ASEAN member Countries with dialogue partners, despite the boycott by Western participants," the Russian Foreign Ministry concluded.

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The idea of a trilateral format of cooperation between Russia, China and India was first expressed in 1996 by then-Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov. The main goal is to establish peace and security in Eurasia, which will contribute to economic development.

The first meeting of the foreign ministers in this format was held in 2002 at the UN General Assembly. Further negotiations were held every year, the last meeting at the moment was held remotely in November 2021.

However, the format worked on other levels as well. For example, in 2018, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. An informal leaders' summit was also held at the G20 heads of state meeting in Osaka, Japan in 2019. Negotiations were also held at the level of experts and heads of trade, economic and financial structures of the three countries.

Moscow, Beijing and New Delhi have managed to coordinate their policies on major international platforms. For example, in 2021, the foreign ministers condemned the use of unilateral sanctions that reduce the role of the UN Security Council. It is important to remember that the three countries were at the origin of the creation of BRICS, an association that now includes 10 states.

At the same time, the increasing tension in relations between India and China, which increasingly view each other as competitors rather than allies, leads to the fact that even scientific communication between representatives of the three countries often generates disputes and conflict situations. This suggests that the independent value of the RIC format can currently be considered close to zero, Andrei Vinogradov, deputy head and leading researcher at the Center for Socio—Economic Research of China at the ICSA RAS, told Izvestia.

— Nevertheless, it would be irrational to abandon this format altogether. In some cases, it provides an opportunity in a more informal, "scientific" environment to discuss with representatives of China and India those acute problems that are inconvenient and incorrect to discuss during summits and diplomatic communication, the expert noted.

What prevents the restoration of relations between India and China

Joint work in the RIC format was slowed down first because of the coronavirus, and then because of problems on the border between India and China, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in 2024. At the same time, he noted that the initiator of the suspension of cooperation was India, which intends to settle border disputes with China first.

It should be recalled that there is a long-standing dispute between Beijing and New Delhi over the ownership of an area of almost 60,000 square kilometers in the northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh, as well as a piece of mountainous land in northern Kashmir. In the fall of 1962, the dispute escalated into an armed conflict, which ended with the establishment of Chinese control over the territory. Since then, the situation on the border has been constantly escalating. For example, the next clashes occurred in May-June 2020.

Unresolved issues related to the border settlement between India and China are the main obstacle to reaching mutual understanding between these countries. Relations between Beijing and New Delhi are also affected by the territorial conflicts between China and Bhutan, which India has pledged to protect, Kirill Kotkov, head of the St. Petersburg Center for the Study of the Far East, told Izvestia.

— In addition, China has been Pakistan's ally in the confrontation with India since the 1960s. In the recent Indo-Pakistani conflict, Chinese fighter jets and missiles that were in service with Pakistan proved themselves. Of course, he is not an equal partner, because his economic dependence on China is increasing, but India cannot accept this format of relations," the expert noted.

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On the other hand, it is multilateral organizations such as the RIC that can become a platform for improving relations between China and India. For example, the first meeting between President Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi since 2020 took place at the BRICS summit in Kazan. There they agreed on the withdrawal of troops and the maintenance of peace on the border.

Indian Foreign Minister Subramaniam Jaishankar arrived on July 14 at a meeting of the SCO Council of Foreign Ministers, where he met with Chinese Deputy Chairman Han Zheng. Following the talks, the head of the Indian department said that relations between Beijing and New Delhi are steadily improving. If the parties return to cooperation in the RIC format, they will be able to continue to get rid of irritants in bilateral relations thanks to Russia's balanced position.

Lidia Kulik, a senior researcher at the Center for Indian Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that any format of cooperation in Eurasia is useful because the continent has long been tired of endless conflicts. For India, relations with Russia traditionally play an important role, given that New Delhi and Beijing have problems. Moscow's involvement creates prospects for cooperation in the RIC format. It contributes to the stabilization of the situation on the Eurasian continent, which gives enough reason for concern.