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- Reverse bill: the Cabinet of Ministers gave oil companies a week to reduce stock prices for gasoline
Reverse bill: the Cabinet of Ministers gave oil companies a week to reduce stock prices for gasoline
The government intends to introduce a complete ban on gasoline exports from Russia for August-September. Regulators intend to monitor the market for another week and take extreme measures if the situation worsens. This decision was made at a meeting on the domestic motor fuel market with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, which took place on July 9. The export ban for non-producers is currently in effect until the end of August. The meeting also discussed the rise in retail prices and the problems of stock trading. What awaits the fuel market is in the Izvestia article.
The situation on the fuel market
On July 9, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak held a meeting of the headquarters on the situation on the domestic market of petroleum products with the participation of representatives of the Ministry of Energy, the Federal Antimonopoly Service, the Ministry of Agriculture, Russian Railways, the heads of the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange, relevant companies, as well as deputies of the State Duma.
The parties discussed the situation on the domestic market during the period of increased summer demand, the conditions for the sale of petroleum products on the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange, as well as the supply of fuel to agricultural producers.
Alexander Novak holds a meeting of the headquarters on the situation on the domestic market of petroleum products
Alexander Novak instructed companies to timely withdraw oil refineries from repairs and comply with planned fuel production targets, the press service of the Cabinet of Ministers reported.
— We cannot allow a sharp rise in gasoline prices. I ask the Ministry of Energy, together with oil companies, to keep abreast of the pulse and manually balance the supply of fuel to the market in order to meet the increased consumer demand in the summer and the first months of autumn. To do this, it is necessary to ensure its uniform sale on the stock exchange, as well as to prevent oil companies from purchasing goods from each other on the stock exchange. They must purchase fuel under direct contracts," the Deputy Prime Minister said.
At the same time, the government added that now the prices of diesel fuel and gasoline remain stable, the growth is within the limits of inflation. Supplies to agricultural producers during the harvesting campaign are going according to plan.
Meanwhile, Izvestia sources familiar with the meeting said that the Cabinet intends to impose a complete ban on gasoline exports from Russia for August-September. According to one of them, the relevant departments will monitor the situation for another week and are ready to take such measures promptly if it worsens.
The ban on gasoline exports from Russia for non-producers (traders, oil depots and organizations with a production capacity of less than 1 million tons of fuel per year) is in effect from March 1 to August 31. Initially, the ban on the export of gasoline abroad, except for the EAEU countries, was in effect in the Russian Federation from March 1 to August 31, 2024, but on May 20 it was suspended and resumed in the fall.
Then the Cabinet of Ministers made an exception for large refineries. According to Izvestia's sources, in mid-May, at a meeting with Alexander Novak, it was decided to extend the ban for non-manufacturers until October.
In addition, Alexander Novak instructed the Ministry of Energy and the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) to assess the marginality of gas stations, taking into account the mandatory costs of refueling, and Russian Railways to solve the problem of idle empty wagons after unloading the goods.
The FAS told Izvestia that measures to reduce the volatility of fuel prices on the stock exchange were also discussed at the headquarters meeting. In addition, the service and the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange have identified unfair practices among oil traders. Fines were imposed on them, as well as access to stock trading was suspended. Earlier, the FAS sent a request to Gazprom PJSC about the reasons for the decrease in fuel sales on the stock exchange (the company owns the Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant and Surgutsky ZSK, which produce gasoline and diesel). The service has received information from the company and is currently analyzing it.
"Also, at the moment, the territorial authorities are considering five antimonopoly cases for unjustified price increases at gas stations," the FAS press service said.
Gasoline and diesel prices
According to Rosstat, consumer gasoline prices increased by 0.2% in the last two weeks of June. Compared to the beginning of the year, gas station prices increased by 3.25%, with overall inflation of 3.76%.
Meanwhile, stock prices continue to rise. From May to June, prices for AI-92 and AI-95 increased by 4.8% and 0.84%, respectively, while from June to July prices increased by 11.47% and 16.66%. As of July 9, the exchange price of AI-92 gasoline was 65,333 rubles per ton, and-95 — 71 915 .
Moreover, the summer diesel has also turned into a positive trend. Prices from June to July increased from 57,601 rubles to 58,665 rubles per ton.
As Izvestia wrote, currently, given the rise in stock prices, the marginality of retail chains — both independent and owned by oil companies — is in the negative zone, which suggests that businesses have no choice but to raise the price tags at gas stations.
Seasonal growth in demand and refinery repair schedules have an impact on the positive dynamics of stock prices for motor fuel. In addition, due to the decline in world oil prices, the cost of motor fuel in foreign markets has also decreased. Oil companies have become noticeably less likely to receive damping payments.
According to Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, if in the first quarter of 2025, payments on the damper reached 405 billion rubles, then in the second quarter — 139.7 billion. According to him, it is possible to recoup the loss of refining margins by increasing stock prices.
In addition, as a source in the industry told Izvestia, oil companies simply outbid oil products from each other to raise prices. This information was confirmed by the head of the analytical center of the Independent Fuel Union Grigory Bazhenov.
The damping mechanism was created in 2018 and introduced in January 2019 to curb domestic fuel prices. If the export price of gasoline and diesel fuel is higher than the nominal domestic price, the government compensates companies for part of this difference so that they do not raise prices in the Russian Federation, and vice versa. The damper is paid only if the average wholesale fuel price for the month has not increased by more than the indicative (conditional domestic) 10% for gasoline and 20% for diesel fuel. The indicative price in 2025 is 60,450 rubles per ton for gasoline and 57,200 rubles for diesel fuel.
Export ban for oil companies
Despite the stock price increase, experts doubt that the government will take extreme measures and impose an export ban on oil companies.
According to Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of VMT Consult, refineries are currently completing repairs, after which the volume of fuel supply to the market will increase. If a decision is made to ban exports, the oil companies may cut production, which in the future may lead to an even greater increase in prices, including retail prices.
Sergey Tereshkin from Open Oil Market agrees with his colleague. In his opinion, in the coming months, the export ban will apply only to traders, while fuel producers will still have the right to supply abroad. It's all about the fairly moderate growth rates of retail prices.
— Regulators will go for a complete ban only if the increase in retail prices outstrips the rate of inflation, — the expert believes.
Valery Andrianov, associate Professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, did not rule out the introduction of a ban. At the same time, he noted that in 2024, when an embargo was imposed on the supply of petroleum products abroad, supplies under long-term contracts remained.
— In other words, those companies that work with foreign partners on the basis of permanent agreements, rather than trying to "catch the market conditions" in short-term markets, remain the winners. This is a kind of incentive for WINK to switch to such "long—term" agreements," he added.
In turn, Olga Orlova, head of the Industry department at the Institute of Oil and Gas Technologies, recalled that exports of petroleum products from Russia had also decreased over the past month due to repairs to Russian factories.
According to Vortexa (the company provides a platform for analytics in the field of energy and cargo transportation), in June, the sea exports of Russian petroleum products averaged 2 million barrels per day, which is 8% lower than in June 2024, and just as much worse than in May 2025.
The current situation will prompt regulators to make a faster decision to expand the range of wholesale fuel prices, which preserves the right of oil companies to receive damping payments, Olga Orlova believes.
The Ministry of Finance proposes to set a range of fuel price deviations for resetting the damper at 15-25% for one to two years, and then only increase it to 20-30%. Alexey Sazanov, State Secretary and Deputy Finance Minister of the Russian Federation, told reporters about this in July. According to him, the final decision should be made by the government, and the issue is currently under consideration.
Dmitry Gusev, deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Reliable Partner Association, also believes that the market needs systemic measures, not "manual management."
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