No luck: up to a third of taxi companies in major cities may leave the market
Up to a third of taxi companies in large cities may leave the market, representatives of these companies told Izvestia. This will lead to a subsequent spike in transportation prices. The reason is the low return on business, unaffordable leasing and the high Central Bank rate. Already, the profitability of taxi companies has decreased from 16% to 6%, there is a shortage of drivers, businesses are unable to upgrade the fleet, and the current resource is enough for a year. What kind of way out of this situation is offered by entrepreneurs is in the material of Izvestia.
How many taxi drivers can go bankrupt
Up to 20% of taxi companies may leave the market within a year, representatives of several large companies told Izvestia about this. By the end of 2026, it is possible to reduce the number of carriers by another 10%. The situation will lead to a shortage of taxi supply and an increase in prices for these services. The reasons are the inability to update car fleets at a high Central Bank rate.
"There are young car companies at risk, which opened three years ago on the wave of demand for taxis," Vasily Baranov, head of the Multi taxi taxi company, told Izvestia. — They have not yet accumulated internal reserves to survive in conditions of high leasing rates.
According to the Chocolate taxi company, changes in tax legislation from 2025 are also complicating the situation for companies. Additional tax expenses increased by 7% of revenue.
— Many carriers will go into the shadows and split up their businesses in order to avoid VAT. They are potential bankrupts," said Spartak Zabolotsky, an investor in this company.
According to him, stricter regulation in the industry reduces the number of drivers. The market lost up to 20% of its workforce in the period 2022-2023, which is about 20,000 drivers. The projected outflow from the industry by the middle of 2026 will amount to an additional 10%, according to Spartak Zabolotsky.
According to the carriers, purchases of new equipment have sharply decreased. Small and medium-sized taxi companies cannot do this and will soon face increased costs for maintaining equipment in working order.
According to Chocolate, the existing leasing rates have made the taxi economy on cars with a four—year period of operation unprofitable - this will continue until the rate drops to at least 13%. Fleets have stopped updating vehicles and are forced to extend the service life of cars to six years or more.
— If a couple of years ago the pre-tax yield was 16%, taking into account the subsequent sale of a car at half price, now it has dropped to 6%, taking into account the operation of old cars. If you work only on new leasing machines, the profitability drops to minus 20%," said Spartak Zabolotsky.
In addition to unaffordable leasing, the low profitability of new Chinese cars also affects the market. If Hyundai, Kia, Skoda, Volkswagen and Toyota, popular with carriers, paid off in three years and served for four to five years, then Chinese and Domestic analogues work for 1.5 years and require expensive transmission repairs even before the lease expires.
"At a relatively lower price, the resource of a number of technical components (variator gearbox, engine, etc.) is insufficient to operate the car for five to six years," Omar Bahamaev, founder and CEO of Avenue Group Taxi, told Izvestia.
In the middle of next year, old cars with runs over 400,000 km will no longer be able to withstand taxi loads, and a massive upgrade of equipment will be required. With the current leasing rate, profitability will drop to 5-6%. It is more profitable for carriers to close a business and deposit capital in banks, Spartak Zabolotsky believes.
— Several taxi companies are already close to closing. Some of them will not live to see the end of the year," the Ritm taxi company told Izvestia.
Izvestia sent requests to the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, aggregators, automakers and other large taxi companies.
When will taxi services become inexpensive again?
— There are basically no separate taxi leasing programs on the market. There is a federal program of preferential leasing of wheeled vehicles of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, which allows leasing vehicles at a discount of 10 to 35%," Dmitry Vissarionov, regional director of Gazprombank Avtolizing, told Izvestia.
It is difficult for carriers to replenish their fleets, and some players are forced to postpone the purchase of equipment until the situation improves. At the same time, the main problems continue to be the shortage of drivers and a decrease in the profitability of operated cars, which leads to a decrease in business margins, the expert notes.
According to Gazprombank Autoleasing and the NAPI marketing agency, the new car leasing market decreased by 44.8% in January–April 2025.
"By the end of the year, the number of leasing transactions for new cars may decrease by another 5-7%," Olga Kirillova, Commercial Director of Alfa—Leasing Group, told Izvestia.
A large-scale upgrade of cars in taxi companies will begin on condition that the Central Bank reduces the key rate and eases monetary policy. The terms of the upgrade also depend on the cost of the machines. The average price for a foreign car is now 3.62 million rubles and 1.56 million for a domestic car, Olga Kirillova notes.
In AvtoVAZ, Izvestia was told that the company is in direct dialogue with taxi companies and is preparing special offers, including profitable promotions for purchase using corporate Auto Finance Bank programs.
— Today, the entire Lada model range can be used in taxis. The average cost of a Lada car is about 1.5 million rubles, compared to more than 3 million for cars of foreign brands.
Izvestia also sent inquiries to Moskvich and AGR (Russian brands Solaris and Tenet).
Irina Zaripova, chairman of the public Council for taxi development, told Izvestia that the average age of cars in Moscow is about 3.5 years, and in the regions — about five to six. Taxi companies in megacities updated their cars every 3-5 years. Now, obviously, their parks will age. This will not lead to a complete shutdown of the industry, but it will cause an increase in the gray sector, as some drivers may go into the shadows, she noted.
"We expect a decrease in the number of legal taxi carriers, which will inevitably affect fares and accessibility of services for passengers," she said.
According to Vasily Baranov from Multi taxi, the industry is facing a systemic crisis: special leasing programs with state support and the development of taxi versions of cars with an emphasis on resource, for example Lada with a classic "automatic" are needed. Then a negative scenario can be avoided next year, the expert concludes.
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