Pan did not disappear: trumpist Karol Nawrocki became president of Poland
Karol Nawrocki, supported by the opposition Law and Justice party, wins the Polish presidential election with 50.89% of the vote, according to the data of the state election commission. His rival Rafal Trzaskowski from the ruling "Civil Coalition" scored 49.11%, although he was the leader in the exit poll. Navrotsky's victory means the continuation of the coexistence of the president and the prime minister from different parties, and early parliamentary elections are possible, experts say. The new head of Poland will continue to focus on Washington, he was actively supported by the Trump administration. At the same time, the policy towards Russia and Ukraine will not change. The unexpected results of the Polish presidential election can be found in the Izvestia article.
Why did Nawrocki win the Polish elections?
Karol Nawrocki, head of the Institute of National Remembrance of Poland, an independent candidate supported by the conservative Law and Justice Party, wins the presidential election. He received 50.89% of the vote, according to the country's State Election Commission. His main rival, who was in the lead according to the exit poll, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski scored 49.11%. This politician was put forward by the ruling Civic Coalition party.
Navrotsky has already been congratulated by current President Andrzej Duda, as well as Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto and Czech President Peter Pavel. In Brussels, the victory of the right-wing candidate was also recognized: the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, expressed her willingness to work with the new president.
The race was extremely intense. After the polls closed at 21:00, the exit poll conducted by Ipsos was published. According to them, Rafal Trzaskowski won with 50.3% of the vote, Navrotsky received 49.7%. Two hours later, the late poll data was published — updated survey results combined with data from the polling stations where the votes were counted. The situation has changed to the exact opposite: Navrotsky became the leader with 50.7% of the votes. Despite this, the mayor of Warsaw told supporters: "We won!" and promised to defend their votes.
However, as the official counting of ballots began, the mood in the headquarters of the candidate from the "Civil Coalition" became worse and worse. By morning, it became clear that Karol Navrotsky was winning, and Trzaskowski would not be able to bridge the gap. It is noted that the turnout in the second round of the presidential election was exceptionally high — 71.63%.
Recall that in the first round of elections on May 18, Rafal Trzaskowski took first place with 31.4%, ahead of Navrotsky by less than 2%. The far-right candidate Slawomir Mentzen took the third place (14.8%). For the mayor of Warsaw, this is the second defeat in the struggle for the presidency: in 2020, he lost to the current president Andrzej Duda. At the same time, the difference between the candidates was then 2% of the votes, or about 400 thousand votes.
There are two main parties in the Polish political system that are fighting among themselves — the right—wing conservative and Eurosceptic Law and Justice (PiS) and the liberal Civic Platform/Coalition (led by the current Prime Minister Donald Tusk).
Poland is a parliamentary—presidential republic, and the powers of the head of state are limited here. However, the President can veto any decision of the Seimas, and it can only be overcome by a two-thirds majority, which the current ruling coalition does not have. Since 2015, the post of president has been held by Andrzej Duda, a native of Law and Justice, who has been sabotaging Tusk's initiatives in every possible way.
The Poles made this choice precisely so that the president and the government could represent different political forces and coexist with each other. They seem to be more satisfied with the picture of the last year and a half, when the president and the prime minister represent multidirectional forces. Before that, Poland lived for eight years (from 2015 to 2023) under the rule of Law and Justice, and before that for five years under the undivided rule of Donald Tusk's pro-European forces (2010-2015), Vadim Trukhachev, associate professor at the Russian State University of Economics, told Izvestia.
"Therefore, they made such a choice so that neither extreme would win, so that, on the one hand, they would not completely obey the EU, and on the other hand, they would not spoil relations with Brussels," the expert said.
At the same time, Navrotsky is likely to dissolve the Sejm, which will lead to early parliamentary elections, although they are scheduled to take place in 2027. However, Law and Justice will not be able to get a majority: Donald Tusk's "Civil Coalition" is still in the lead in the polls.
How will Warsaw's policy change under Nawrocki
The new President of Poland, Karol Nawrocki, is 42 years old. In his youth, he was a boxer, then became a historian dealing with the topic of anti-communist resistance in Poland; in 2021, he was appointed president of the Institute of National Remembrance. In February 2024, Navrotsky was included in the list of persons wanted by Russia in connection with his involvement in the demolition of monuments to the Red Army in Poland. As the president-elect himself stated, after that he began to carry weapons.
At the same time, the policy towards Russia will not change, there is no difference in approaches between the two candidates, Vadim Trukhachev noted. Warsaw will continue to support Kiev, although Navrotsky is still more skeptical about Ukraine than the ruling party. He is more active in talking about the unacceptability in Ukraine of the cult of Stepan Bandera and Roman Shukhevych, who was responsible for the extermination of tens of thousands of Poles in Volhynia.
In addition, Karol Navrotsky signed a declaration, which, among other things, contained a refusal to support Ukraine's accession to NATO. According to the politician, Ukraine's accession to NATO would mean that the entire North Atlantic Alliance is at war with Russia. However, this does not mean that Warsaw will now oppose Ukraine's integration into the North Atlantic Alliance. Firstly, the main power is concentrated in the hands of Prime Minister Tusk. And secondly, Navrotsky may well abandon these promises if he receives concessions from Kiev on issues of historical memory and grain supplies to the EU.
The main difference between the two candidates was in relations with the EU and the United States. If Trzaskowski is a eurooptimist, then Navrotsky considers the powers of Brussels to be too extensive. He is a proponent of decision-making at the national level. In addition, the candidate from Law and Justice strongly emphasized his ties with the United States during the campaign. In early May, he was received at the White House by American President Donald Trump, who allegedly told Navrotsky: "You will win." And on May 28, the US Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristy Noam, openly supported the right-wing candidate at a rally in Warsaw. She criticized Trzaskowski, calling him an "absolute loser."
Now Washington gets a new supporter inside the EU, which to some extent compensates for the defeat of trumpist George Simion in Romania. However, it cannot be said that Poland is completely turning to the United States. Instead, the existing bi-directionality is more likely to remain: the president will strengthen relations with Washington, and the prime Minister will interact with the EU.
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