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- Below the skirting board: sales of residential real estate in Russia have collapsed by almost 40%
Below the skirting board: sales of residential real estate in Russia have collapsed by almost 40%
In Russia, residential property sales collapsed by 40% in April to March. The downward trend began in February and is getting stronger every month. Russians are in no hurry to invest in real estate after the reduction of mortgage programs and in conditions of a high key interest rate. At the same time, developers are increasingly selling apartments in installments, its share is 54%. The decline will continue in May, business representatives and experts suggest. At the same time, the Central Bank believes that the situation in the housing market does not require systemic anti-crisis measures.
Why did Russians stop buying apartments
Sales of residential real estate in Russia in April decreased by 39.8% compared to March. Such data is contained in a study by the consulting company CORE.XP based on the results of April. The document, which Izvestia has, says that the decline began in February and in March was already 12.3%.
At the same time, according to analysts, after the cancellation of preferential mortgage programs and the increase in bank rates, Russians are increasingly buying real estate through the installment mechanism. The share of such purchases is already 54%.
— The volume of transactions in square meters has really been decreasing since February. Buyers are not rushing to make decisions, expecting an improvement in the geopolitical climate and an expansion of the family mortgage program. The strengthening of the ruble exchange rate also forces buyers to observe more than make decisions," the director, head of residential real estate CORE, explained to Izvestia.XP Ekaterina Lomteva.
The company predicts that the downward trend will continue in May. At the same time, according to the study, premium and deluxe classes remain the engines of growth in residential real estate. Thus, prices for such apartments increased by 57.4% and 24.5%, respectively, over the year. While in the comfort class, the increase was only 0.1%.
Against this background, as noted in the study, investments in housing construction have decreased by 50% since the beginning of the year compared to the same period in 2024, falling from 179 billion to 90 billion rubles.
At the same time, according to the CEO of CORE.According to Vladimir Pinaev, there is no need to worry that a serious crisis will occur in the industry.
— A limited number of developers are already implementing the bulk of projects today. Of course, there are bankruptcy risks for developers, but the government has mechanisms for dealing with this problem. Obviously, if necessary, the authorities will provide support to large system developers," he explained to Izvestia.
As for small and medium-sized developers, there is a tendency for them to sell their businesses, Vladimir Pinaev noted. Small companies are moving to larger builders. Therefore, the market will continue to consolidate, he added.
On May 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed the government and the Central Bank to take measures to reduce the risks of bankruptcy of developers. This includes developing a temporary program to subsidize the interest rate on loans provided to developers as part of the implementation of the project financing mechanism for housing construction (primarily in small towns) with a planned deadline for commissioning in 2026.
At the same time, problems were felt not only by developers in the regions, but also by major market players. As previously reported by the media, there has been a significant decline in profits for some of the largest federal construction companies. So, according to the results of 2024, the developer "Airplane" has tripled, and the "PEAK" has almost doubled. The management of both companies recommended that shareholders not pay dividends for the past year.
Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Construction, as well as to the largest developers, asking them to comment on the situation on the real estate market.
Why the market decline may continue
Indeed, against the background of the already significant (approximately halved) drop in sales since the autumn of 2024, May of this year turned out to be even more disastrous — for some construction sites, the drop doubled from previous months," the president of the Association of Construction Organizations of the Novosibirsk Region (ASONO), coordinator of the National Association of Builders (NOSTROI) in Siberia told Izvestia. to the Federal District Maxim Fedorchenko.
— The slowdown in the economy has begun to affect the financial capabilities of potential buyers. In the absence of leverage, the lack of money becomes critical when deciding whether to buy an apartment. The withdrawal of new projects on the market has actually stopped," he explained to Izvestia.
According to him, this is due to the fact that developers are experiencing difficulties with the completion of construction projects: a drop in sales rates leads to a review by banks of financial models, an increase in requirements for the developer. In such a situation, developers are no longer up to new projects, the business representative noted.
— In the future, we can expect a drop in supply and a significant increase in the price per square meter, which will equalize the profitability of current projects even with slow sales, — suggested Maxim Fedorchenko.
The number of transactions in April decreased in the housing construction market in Moscow. It amounted to 6.6 thousand equity participation agreements, which is 17% less than in April 2024, when 7.9 thousand equity participation agreements were recorded. Compared to March 2025, the number of agreements decreased by 4% (from 6.9 thousand DDU), Ruslan Syrtsov, managing director of the Metrium real estate company, told Izvestia.
— That is, the pace of sales of new buildings in the capital has slowed down, but not dramatically. This trend is explained by the exhaustion of many liquid offers amid a decrease in the number of new project launches, as well as stricter conditions for family loans (even despite lower mortgage fees). In some regions of the Russian Federation, which are most seriously dependent on preferential loans, the situation looks even more tense. Not in all regions, the income level of the population allows us to count on the mass registration of installments," the business representative explained.
At the same time, he is confident that the situation will begin to change in the near future.
— In the summer, the Central Bank may begin a cycle of lowering the key rate, which will practically activate sales everywhere. A similar situation is observed in the secondary housing and commercial real estate markets. Actually, it is precisely the reduction of deposit rates and the stabilization of the "key" that serve as the main guarantees for the growth of consumer activity in all segments," said Ruslan Syrtsov.
Meanwhile, the Central Bank itself believes that the situation on the housing market does not require systemic anti-crisis measures. The organization reports this in the Bank of Russia's Financial Stability Review for the fourth Quarter of 2024 and the first Quarter of 2025, published on May 28. At the same time, they admit that the growth of mortgage lending in Russia has slowed significantly, and the quality of mortgage servicing has begun to deteriorate. According to estimates by the Central Bank, home sales in the first quarter of this year decreased by 8%.
When the situation may change
In general, real estate sales are falling across the country, although the situation in the regions is different, the director of development of the Movement (ecosystem of real estate projects) told Izvestia Radik Nigmatullin.
— In some cities, a slight increase was recorded in April compared to March, in others there was a drop in demand and sales of up to 40%. This is due to the development of the local market and the possibilities of using mortgage programs," the expert explained.
According to him, where the market is more developed and developers are improving their offerings by offering additional incentive tools, stability or even small growth is observed. In regions with a weaker economy and the absence of large-scale production, the decline is more severe, Radik Nigmatullin emphasized.
— The general trend will continue in May-June, because none of the mortgage programs that are currently on the market are fully operational. The exception is the IT mortgage, but, again, it varies in different regions. For example, Yekaterinburg showed an increase in transactions in April, including due to IT mortgages, since a large number of IT companies are concentrated in this city," the expert noted.
The head of Cian holds a different point of view.Analysts" Alexey Popov. According to him, the number of transactions in the new building market remained almost unchanged on a monthly basis (there was even a slight increase of 4% in the Russian Federation as a whole). There is no noticeable decrease in the secondary market either (the number of PREP in Moscow decreased by 8%, in St. Petersburg increased by 1%, in the Leningrad region - by 13%, other regions do not publish statistics promptly now, but all indirect indicators indicate a near—zero trend, and not an almost twofold decrease, he added.
At the same time, the expert believes that we can expect a decrease in demand in May. Seasonality, two weeks with long weekends, logistical difficulties — all this contributes to a decrease in market activity, he noted.
According to him, the Central Bank's decisions to lower the key interest rate (or at least the regulator's comments on such plans for the second half of the year), the expansion of preferential mortgage programs, and positive macroeconomic and geopolitical news may become factors of demand growth.
According to Ayman El Hashem, an expert partner at the Yakov and Partners consulting company, there is a high probability that the downward trend in sales will continue in May.
— However, it is appropriate to call this a sharp drop only against the background of the high base of last year. In fact, the market is returning to a more realistic level of demand, without the support of incentive measures. In April, about 1.6 million square meters were sold across the country. The housing price is 4% higher than in March, but 20% lower than a year ago. In May, we expect a decrease of 5-6%, and in the summer months, a drawdown of up to 10% is possible, including due to seasonality," the expert explained.
According to him, the reasons are high mortgage rates, curtailing or increasing the cost of installments, reducing the withdrawal of new projects, primarily in economy and comfort class.
— We predict that prices will continue to rise, as developers' cost increases, and it is more profitable for them to reduce the volume than to drop the price, — said Ayman El Hashem.
In his opinion, the situation can be changed by expanding government support programs, as well as reducing the key interest rate.
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